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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/80492


    Title: User adoption of wisdom of crowd: usage and performance of prediction market system
    Authors: 李有仁;童振源;張書勳
    Li, Eldon Y.;Tung, Chen-Yuan;Chang, Shu-Hsun
    Contributors: 資管系
    Keywords: wisdom of crowd;prediction markets;MSRs;market scoring rules;CDA;continuous double auction;epidemic prediction;TPB;theory of planned behaviour;continuance intention;user adoption;risk management;Taiwan;infectious diseases;disease prediction;public welfare;hedonic motivations;prize motivation;trading performance;user satisfaction;perceived behaviour control;peer influence
    Date: 2015-07
    Issue Date: 2016-01-11 14:36:45 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Prediction markets have been adopted to forecast events (trends) and manage risks related to the events in different projects. This paper scrutinises the first prediction market system (PMS) established in Taiwan, which shows favourable accuracy of the PMS in predicting infectious diseases comparing with expected value of historical data for the same period. It further analyses the incentive structure as well as system quality of PMS to attract initial as well as continuous participation. The paper concludes that public welfare and hedonic motivations are the most significant factors driving members` initial participation in the PMS. And prize motivation influenced the trading performance in this prediction system. Finally, based upon theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this paper finds that satisfaction and perceived behaviour control of participants in the PMS have positive influences on continuance intention and actual participation, while peer influence has little positive impact.
    Relation: International Journal of Electronic Business,12(2),185-214
    Data Type: article
    DOI link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJEB.2015.069092
    DOI: 10.1504/IJEB.2015.069092
    Appears in Collections:[Department of MIS] Periodical Articles

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