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    题名: 博彩業對房價的影響 – 以澳門為例
    A Stduy of Lead-Lag Relationship Between Housing Price and Gambling Industry – The Case of Macau
    作者: 劉家寶
    贡献者: 林左裕
    劉家寶
    关键词: 澳門
    博彩業
    住宅價格
    因果關係
    Macau
    Gambling Industry
    Housing Price
    Granger Causality
    日期: 2015
    上传时间: 2015-08-24 10:41:53 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 自2002年，澳門政府開放賭權後，博彩業成為澳門重要的經濟命脈，伴隨著澳門經濟迅速發展，澳門住宅價格亦因此高速飛漲。故此，本研究係以澳門為主要研究對象，探討自澳門政府批出三份博彩經營權後，總體經濟、博彩業與澳門主住宅市間之關係。選取二零零一年第一季至二零一四年第四季之季資料，運用單根檢定、因果關係檢定與共整合檢定等研究方法進行實證分析，檢定變數間的因果關係是否有長短期均衡關係與是否有領先落後的效果。

    根據實證結果顯示，存款利率、外來投資金額、外地僱員及飯店入住率領先住宅價格之變動，所得及博彩稅收與住宅價格則呈現雙向因果關係，而外來投資金額、外地僱員、飯店入住率皆屬於博彩旅遊相關之變數，顯示博彩業蓬勃發展能推動澳門住宅價格，使房價高漲。此外，博彩稅收、外來投資金額、外地僱員及飯店入住率皆對所得具有單向影響，故此，可推斷博彩業開放後為澳門帶來巨大的經濟衝擊。另一方面，澳門經濟發展高度依賴博彩業，中小企業亦因租金持續高漲、人力資源短缺等問題，面臨極大的成本壓力，嚴重排擠中小企業生存空間。
    In the year of 2002, after the gambling are allowing by the government in Macau, gambling has already become a pillar industry. Accompanying with the rapid development of economy, housing price has risen at high speed in Macau. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the research of interactive relationship between the real estate market, macroeconomic and gambling industry variables on the basis of Granger causality test since the gambling concession was granted out to three companies. Our sample period starts from Q1 of 2001 to Q4 of 2014 with quarterly data. The research uses ADF Test, Granger Causality Test, and Cointegration Test model that we verify the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the real estate prices. The paper hopes to find out that whether the long-term steady changes between the real estate market and macroeconomic variables will be a leading or lagging effect.

    The empirical result shows that, deposits rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), non-resident workers (NRW) and hotel occupancy rate (HOR), are in the lead of variation of housing price, income and tax revenue from gaming presents a causal relationship with housing price. FDI, NRW and HOR belong to the variations of the gambling industry which reveal flourishing gambling industry cam promote the housing price in Macau. Moreover, tax revenue from gaming, FDI, NRW and HOR leads income. Thus, it can infer after the gambling are allowed, it brings a great impact on the economy in Macau. On the other hand, the economy of Macau too dependent on gambling. Medium-sized and small enterprises face lot of cost pressure such as the raising rent and short of hands, so that excluding vivo sphere of medium-sized and enterprises.
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    地政研究所
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