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    Title: 中國內地和中國香港的貿易自由化效應研究——基于全球貿易分析模型GTAP的分析
    Authors: 陳坤銘
    Contributors: 國貿系
    Keywords: CEPA;中國香港;貿易;產業;GTAP
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2015-08-17 17:44:46 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 基于全球貿易分析模型GTAP模型和CEPA免稅清單"原產地"標準,分析了中國內地和中國香港實施"港產品零關稅"和"全面貿易自由化"產生的經濟、貿易和產業效應,以及海峽兩岸ECFA早期收獲和全面實施的影響。研究發現:由于中國內地關稅大幅度減免,"港產品零關稅"使中國香港進出口增加幅度大于中國內地,中國內地服務業和符合原產地標準的中國香港制造業生產出口增加。如果兩地進一步實現"全面貿易自由化",則進出口值、經濟增長和福利水平將大幅度提高,并促進兩地產業結構調整和升級,但中國內地進口增加幅度大于出口導致貿易余額減少。此外,ECFA早期收獲使中國臺灣貿易余額增加,而ECFA全面實施將使中國香港作為海峽兩岸經貿中轉港的地位受到影響。
    Relation: 國際貿易問題,2011(9),57-64
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[Department of International Business] Periodical Articles

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