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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 財務管理學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/77430

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77430

Title:	A comparison of alternative models for estimating firm? growth rate
Authors:	Brick, Ivan E.;Chen, Hong-Yi;Hsieh, Chia-Hsun;Lee, Cheng-Few 陳鴻毅
Contributors:	財務管理學系
Keywords:	Equity valuation;Estimation of growth rate;Gordon’s growth model;Determinants of growth forecast errors;G31;G35
Date:	2015-03
Issue Date:	2015-08-05 14:38:03 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	The growth rate plays an important role in determining a firm’s asset and equity values, nevertheless the basic assumptions of the growth rate estimation model are less well understood. In this paper, we demonstrate that the model makes strong assumptions regarding the financing mix of the firm. In addition, we discuss various methods to estimate firms’ growth rate, including arithmetic average method, geometric average method, compound-sum method, continuous regression method, discrete regression method, and inferred method. We demonstrate that the arithmetic average method is very sensitive to extreme observations, and the regression methods yield similar but somewhat smaller estimates of the growth rate compared to the compound-sum method. Interestingly, the ex-post forecast shows that arithmetic average method (compound-sum method) yields the best (worst) performance with respect to estimating firm’s future dividend growth rate. Firm characteristics, like size, book-to-market ratio, and systematic risk, have significant influence on the forecast errors of dividend and sales growth rate estimation.
Relation:	Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting
Data Type:	article
DOI 連結:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11156-015-0504-6
DOI:	10.1007/s11156-015-0504-6
Appears in Collections:	[財務管理學系] 期刊論文

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