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| Title: | 逃漏稅、金融雙元體系與經濟成長 |
| Other Titles: | Tax Evasion, Financial Dualism, and Economic Growth |
| Authors: | 洪福聲 |
| Contributors: | 經濟學系 |
| Keywords: | 逃漏稅;金融雙元體系;經濟成長;鑄幣稅;金融壓抑政策
Tax Evasion;Financial Dualism;Economic Growth;Seigniorage;Financial Repression |
| Date: | 2014 |
| Issue Date: | 2015-08-05 12:09:06 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 此一兩年期計畫，擬將雙元金融體系與逃漏稅、經濟成長的課題相結合，以探討逃漏 稅與雙元金融體系的互動，並透過這一個互動，重新探究逃漏稅與經濟成長的關係。 由於現存研究逃漏稅與經濟成長的文章都未考慮逃漏稅與地下金融的互動關係，故本 計畫除了可以填補文獻的這個遺漏之外，透過凸顯逃漏稅與地下金融體系的互動，本 計畫也可以改進現存逃漏稅與經濟成長理論文獻與實證文獻的不一致，因此本研究具 有顯著的學術貢獻。 第一年計畫擬將金融雙元體系加入Chen (2003)的文章。Chen(2003)將逃漏稅納入 Barro(1990)的模型，發現如果政府生產性公共支出的產出彈性不大，則逃漏稅較為嚴 重的國家與較為輕微的國家，他們的經濟成長率的差別不大。這個結果可以用來解釋 亞洲四小龍中，台灣與南韓逃漏稅雖然比香港與新加坡要嚴重很多，但這四個國家經 濟成長表現卻類似的現象。這個解釋雖然具有說服力，但在亞洲四小龍中，政府生產 性公共支出的產出彈性不大(低於20%)的假設未經嚴謹的實證檢驗，此外台灣在1990 年代生產性公共支出超過20%，也與這一假設不符。透過凸顯台灣與南韓的金融雙元 體系與香港、新加坡的差異，本計畫不需政府生產性公共支出的產出彈性不大的假設， 即可解釋亞洲四小龍逃漏稅與經濟成長率的關係。 第二年計畫則將貨幣加入第一年計畫的模型，探討逃漏稅與金融雙元體系的互動，在 政府金融壓抑政策(government policy of financial repression)與經濟成長關係中，所扮演 的角色。在未考慮逃漏稅與地下金融的互動關係下，Roubini and Sala-i-Martin (1995) 建議逃漏稅較嚴重的國家應該壓抑地上金融體系(formal financial sectors)，因為透過壓 抑金融體系可以提高鑄幣稅稅收以支付政府非生產性公共支出。在他們的模型中，金 融壓抑程度愈高，對資本投資的扭曲就愈大，故經濟成長率就愈低。此外，透過金融 壓抑而增加鑄幣稅稅收，也會提高通貨膨脹率。因此，逃漏稅嚴重的國家將伴隨著金 融壓抑、低經濟成長與高通膨。值得注意的是，Roubini and Sala-i-Martin (1995)雖然考 量了金融雙元體系，但逃漏稅與地下金融並沒有互動關係。此外，Roubini and Sala-i-Martin (1995)的結論除了與台灣、南韓等國相違背外，也與近期一些實證文獻不 符。如近期文獻發現溫和的金融壓抑有助於經濟成長。此外，Roubini and Sala-i-Martin (1995)的模型中通膨與經濟成長都是負向關係，但近期的實證研究發現兩者是非線性關 係。第二年計畫探討逃漏稅與金融雙元體系的互動，可以得到與近期實證文獻一致的 金融壓抑與經濟成長及通膨與經濟成長的關係。
This two-year project intends to examine the interaction between tax evasion and financial dualism and, through this interaction, re-examines the relationship between tax evasion and economic growth. As there is no study linking this interaction into the relationship between tax evasion and economic growth, this proposed project can fill this gap in the literature. Moreover, by so doing, this project is able to yield conclusions that are consistent with recent empirical works. Based on these observations, the potential contribution of this proposed project should be significant. The first-year project adds financial dualism into Chen (2003). Without considering financial dualism, Chen (2003) finds that if the output elasticity of public services is small (smaller than 0.2), then countries with different degrees of tax evasion can have similar economic growth. This result is quite interesting as it can explain the growth experience of Asian tigers, as why Taiwan and Korea have significantly higher degrees of tax evasion than Singapore and Hong Kong, but their growth performance is very similar. However, the requirement that the output elasticity of public services is small does not rigorously tested in Asian tigers. Moreover, the share of government productive spending in Taiwan in 1990s was over 20%, implying that the output elasticity of productive spending is over 0.2. By adding financial dualism into Chen (2003), this project not only can highlight the distinction of financial system between Taiwan/Korea and Singapore/Hong Kong, but also can explain the growth experience of Asian tigers without the requirement of small value of output elasticity of government productive spending. The second-year project intends to add money into the model developed by the first year project. Without modeling the interaction between tax evasion and informal financial markets (curb markets), Roubini and Sala-i-Martin (1995) demonstrate that countries with severe tax evasion should repress its formal financial sectors to generate more seigniorage revenues for financing its non-productive spending. Financial repression, however, creates distortion to capital investment and thus lower economic growth. This conclusion is not consistent with Taiwan and Korea, whose financial sectors were heavily repressed in 1980s and 1990s, but their growth performances were extremely well. Moreover, recent empirical studies find that mild financial repression is able to enhance economic growth. Finally, more gniorage leads to higher inflation. Thus, the inflation-growth is always negatively related in Roubini and Sala-i-Martin (1995). Recent studies, however, find a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth. By highlighting the interactions among tax evasion, financial repression and financial dualism, the second-year project is able to generate conclusions that are consistent with recent empirical works. |
| Relation: | NSC102-2410-H004-008-MY2
PF10301-0893 |
| Data Type: | report |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫
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