政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/77072

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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/77072

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题名:	Oldest-Old Mortality Rates and the Gompertz`s Law: A Theoretical and Empirical Study Based on Four Countries
作者:	余清祥
贡献者:	統計系
关键词:	Gompertz’s Law;Mortality Rates of the Elderly;Mortality Projection;Bootstrap;Simulation;Maximum Likelihood;Weighted Least Square;Nonlinear Maximization;Graduation
日期:	2002
上传时间:	2015-07-28 18:15:08 (UTC+8)
摘要:	Testing the Gompertz law (i.e. law of geometrical progression) for elderly mortality rates has been discussed in the literature for a long time, but tests based on a set of yearly age-specific data have not been fully explored yet. In the first part of this paper, we propose a standard operating procedure for testing the Gompertz assumption using yearly age-specific mortality data. Methods used in the procedure include estimation of parameters in the Gompertz law and their standard errors via bootstrap simulation. In addition to the oldest-old (i.e. ages 80 and above) data in Japan, Sweden, France, and the U.S. (Data sources: Berkeley Mortality Database and Kannisto, 1994), a simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed procedure. However, in practice the period of data collection is often prolonged to 5 or 10 years in order to accumulate sufficient sample sizes. However, a longer data collection period is likely to mix data with different attributes and cause problems in the parameter estimation. Thus, in the second part of this paper, we discuss the impacts of the data collection period and population sizes on the testing results.
關聯:	Journal of Population Studies (TSSCI), 24, 33-57.
数据类型:	article
显示于类别:	[統計學系] 期刊論文

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