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    Title: 以區位價值波面提升大量估價精度之研究 -以條件式殘差擬合變數為核心
    The Research of Refining Mass Appraising by the Concept of Location Value Response Surface
    Authors: 李智偉
    Lee, Chih Wei
    Contributors: 陳奉瑤
    Chen, Fong Yao
    李智偉
    Lee, Chih Wei
    Keywords: 大量估價
    區位價值波面
    特徵價格模型
    估價
    Mass Appraisa
    Location Value Response Surface
    Hedonic Model
    Appraisal
    Date: 2014
    Issue Date: 2015-07-01 14:57:56 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 現行不動產大量估價主要以特徵價格模型為基礎進行價格之預估，而常以鄰里、轄區或次市場虛擬變數或是與特定公共設施之距離作為控制區位價值之變數。惟僅以次市場變數之係數或是距離特定公共設施距離之係數衡量樣本之區位價值，則因係數之僵化性弱化或低估區位對不動產價格之影響，導致大量估價模型之精度難以突破。
    本研究以區位價值波面之概念建立條件式殘差擬合變數，從空間角度評估各樣本之區位價值並以量化數值呈現各樣本區位價值之高低，在細膩處理區位價值下模型之預估能力相對提升。實證結果顯示，整體模型之絕對誤差平均值為10.1%，而10%、20%誤差命中率達62.9%、87.9%，相對優於過去研究之模型預估能力；另外，經過區域侷限性測驗發現，條件式殘差擬合變數修正模型不受次市場之侷限，對於是否劃分模型次市場已不影響模型之預估能力，且經由實證發現，當實價登錄樣本愈趨豐富時，模型之預估能力將更加提升，值得作為後續建立大量估價模型之參考。
    Hedonic model is the most commonly-used tool for real estate mass appraisal, and neighborhoods, districts or sub-market dummies or the distance from the specific public facilities are the common variables used to control the value of location in the model. However, controlling the location value by these ways leads to the coefficient rigidities, making it possible to underestimate the value of the location.
    This research sets up the conditional-selected residual fitting variable by the concept of location value response surface, and estimates the location value from the spatial perspective. The result shows that the MAPE of the model is 10.1%, and the hit-rate of 10% and 20% come to 62.9% and 87.9%, having significant improvement compared with the past studies. Besides, by the confinement test of sub-market, it has been proved that the CRF modified model successfully gets rid of confinement from the sub-market, and whether dividing sub-markets or not no longer affects the prediction capability of the model. Another test giving us new images that, when the train data gets richer as time goes, the prediction capability of the model gets higher as well.
    Reference: 一、中文參考文獻
    王群猛，2013，「銀行聚集與不動產價格之關係-以台北市辦公商圈為例」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
    江穎慧，2009，「不動產價格之估值認知與調整 – 估價行為、大量估價與估值機率之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系博士論文。
    林子欽、李汪穎、陳國華，2011，「公寓建物之折舊估算與房屋稅負」，『都市與計劃』，38(1)：31-46。
    林祖嘉、林素菁，1993，「台灣地區環境品質與公共設施對房價與房租影響之分析」，『住宅學報』，1：21-45。
    林祖嘉、馬毓駿，2007，「特徵方程式大量估價法在台灣不動產市場之應用」，『住宅學報』，16(2)：1-22。
    林楨家、黃至豪，2003，「台北捷運營運前後沿線房地屬性特徵價格之變化」，『運輸計劃季刊』，32(4)：777-800。
    陳力綸，2013，「以地理加權迴歸改進住宅次市場劃分之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
    陳奉瑤、梁仁旭，2014，『不動產估價理論』，第三版：台北。
    陳奉瑤、李智偉，2015，「不動產估價業發展概況」，2015台灣地區房地產年鑑。
    陳奉瑤、楊依蓁，2007，「個別估價與大量估價之準確性分析」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
    張怡文，2006，「特徵價格法在住宅大量估價模型中的延伸—分量迴歸之應用」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
    楊宗憲、蘇幸慧，2011，「迎毗設施與鄰避設施對住宅價格影響之研究」，『住宅學報』，20(2)：61-80。
    廖咸興、張芳玲，1997，「不動產評價模式特徵價格法與逼近調整法之比較」，『住宅學報』，5：17-35。
    廖彬傑，2012，「應用克利金法劃分地價區段之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
    蔡爾逸，2012，「應用支撐向量機(SVM)於都市不動產價格預測之研究」，國立中央大學營建管理研究所碩士論文。
    戴國正，2012，「大眾捷運系統對房價影響效果之再檢視」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
    龔永香，2007，「客觀標準化不動產估價之可行性分析─ 市場比較法應用於大量估價」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
    二、外文參考文獻
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政研究所
    101257026
    103
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101257026
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Land Economics] Theses

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