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    题名: 美國中國情勢分析(2000-2005)之研究-以美國相關智庫論點為例
    Modern China Study in American Think Tanks(2000-2005)
    作者: 崔小茹
    Cui, Xiaoru
    贡献者: 李英明
    Lee, In Ming
    崔小茹
    Cui, Xiaoru
    关键词: 智庫
    決策
    中國威脅論
    美中關係
    美中台關係
    日期: 2004
    上传时间: 2015-05-01 11:39:04 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 智庫在美國外交政策之功能,包括:扮演政府和公眾之間的中介功能;對當前或是即將形成的議題、問題或提議進行認定和評估;將理念和問題轉換為政策議題;在政策辯論時發揮咨詢和獨立自主意見;在政策形成過程中提供相關人士交換意見和訊息的建設性論壇。
    隨著網際網路的發達,美國主要智庫的研究成果均披露於網站上,不但其研究成果更廣為人知,影響力更為擴大,在美國之外隨時可透過各智庫網站獲得該智庫的最新政策建議。尤其在1990年代末,美國重要智庫開始增設有關中國研究或亞太研究之項目,使外界可以透過網路同步得知美國智庫對中國政策、亞太政策、兩岸關係之最新訊息。美國智庫研究成果方資訊化已成為研判美國對華政策時,不可或缺的主要來源。
    本研究透過大量英文一手資料的分析,希望能達成本研究的意義,即更全面、更準確地了解美國智庫對華政策,以及對美國政府外交思維之影響,並提供台灣政軍決策者在研判美國和北京對台政策時之參考。
    參考文獻: 中文著作

    一、中文文件

    毛澤東,〈中國革命戰爭的戰略問題〉,收入:中共中央黨校教材審定委員會審定,《馬克思主義著作選編:哲學》,中共中央黨校出版社,1992。
    鄧小平,《鄧小平文選》(1975-1982),人民出版社,1983。
    行政院研究發展考核委員會,〈國防部籌建飛彈防禦系統〉,《2005年台灣年鑑》,<http://www.gov.tw/EBOOKS/TWANNUAL/show_book.php?path=3_004_063>.

    二、中文媒體

    盛力軍,〈當前的中美關係、海峽兩岸關係及對策〉,中國網,2002/07/27,<http://www.china.org.cn/chinese/zhuanti/179220.htm>.
    費學禮(Richard Fisher)撰,張佑之譯,〈布希國防報告 中共威脅定調〉,台北《中央日報》,2002/8/4,版5。
    費學禮撰,張佑之譯,〈主動制敵 台灣考慮積極防禦〉,《中央日報》,2003/02/09,版6。
    〈北京為民眾反日情緒降溫〉,《美國之音中文網》,2005/04/20,<http://www.voanews.com/chinese/w2005-04-20-voa39.cfm>.

    三、中文論文

    卜睿哲,〈回應中國「反分裂法」挑釁 台灣勿過度反應最利己〉,The Brookings Institution, <http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/bush/20050324.pdf>.
    朱奕嵐,〈新甲申革命要將中國帶向哪裡去?〉,《遠景基金會季刊》第6卷第1期,2005年1月。
    陳雅莉,〈《中國軍力報告》出台,「鷹」牌還是「鴿」牌?〉,《華盛頓觀察》周刊,2003年第21期(總第37期),<http://washfrofile.org/chinese/USChina-cnmilitary-052803CN37.
    cfm>.
    裴敏欣,〈中美關係新一輪緊張〉,《卡內基中國透視》月刊,2005年第4期,(總第5期,2005年4月)。
    袁鵬,〈美國思想庫:概念及起源〉,《國際資料信息》,2002年第10期。
    盧咏,〈中國威脅論重返華盛頓──史文專訪談近期中美台局勢〉,《卡內基中國透視》月刊(Carnegie China Insight Monthly),2005年第3期(總第4期,2005年3月)。
    崔小茹,〈新書介紹:《當代中國之自由範圍》〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,第5卷第4期,2004年10月。
    ────,〈新書介紹:《兩岸議題:設法避免美國與中共因台灣發動核戰》〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,第6卷第1期,2005年1月。
    ────,〈《中國持續轉變:法國─美國分析崛起中的中國戰略政策及其對泛大西洋關係之影響》新書介紹〉,《遠景基金會季刊》,第6卷第2期,2005年4月。

    四、中文專書

    王炳南,《中美會談九年回顧》,北京:世界知識出版社,1985。
    王景倫,《走進東方的夢——美國的中國觀》,時事出版社,1994年。
    朱政惠,〈日益受到關注的海外中國學研究〉,《美國中國學史研究:海外中國學探索的理論與實踐》,上海:上海古籍出版社,2004。
    吳天佑、傅曦編著,《美國重要思想庫》,時事出版社,1982年11月第1版。
    陳秉璋著,《政治社會學》,台北:三民書局,民81。
    閻學通,《中國國家利益分析》,天津:天津人民出版社,1996。

    五、中文譯著

    March , James G. and Johan P. Olsen, <新制度主義:政治生活中的組織因素〉,原載《美國政治科學評論》1984年第3期,總第78卷。<http://www.beiwang.com/a/Article.asp?ArtID=536>.
    Barraclough, Geoffrey著,楊豫譯,《當代史學新趨勢》,台北:雲龍出版社,1999。
    Geertz, Clifford著,韓莉譯,《文化的解釋》(The Interpretation of Cultures),南京:譯林出版社,1999,
    哈伯瑪斯(Jurgen Habermas)著,陳學明譯,《合法性危機》,台北:時報出版社,1994。
    Isaacs ,Harold Robert原著,于殿利、陸日宇譯,《美國的中國形象》(Scratches on Our Mind: American Images of China),北京:時事出版社,1999。
    Robert O. Keohane原著,郭樹勇譯,《新現實主義及其批判》(Neorealism and Its Critics),北京:北京大學出版社,2002,
    毛思迪(Steven W. Mosher)原著,李威儀譯,《中國新霸權──中國的企圖:支配亞洲與世界》(Hegemony: China’s Plan to Dominate Asia and the World),台北:立緒文化事業有限公司,2001。
    佘羅(Lester C. Thurow)著,李華夏譯,《資本主義的未來》(The Future of Capitalism: How Today’s Economic Forces Will Shape Tomorrow’s World),台北:立緒文化事業有限公司,1999。
    美中經濟和安全審查委員會,〈致國會的報告〉(要點摘要,二00四年六月,第一百0八屆國會,第二會期),U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2004 Annual Report, executive report in Chinese, <http://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2004/uscc2004report.pdf>.
    Walder, Andrew G.著,龔小夏譯,《共產黨社會的新傳統主義:中國工業中的工作環境和權力結構》(Communist Neo-traditionalism: Work and Authority in Chinese Industry),香港:牛津大學出版社,1996。
    Wendt, Alexander原著,秦亞青譯,《國際政治的社會理論》(Social Theory of International Polictics),上海:人民出版社,2001。


    英文著作

    一、英文文件

    Bush, George W., The National Security Strategy of the United States, Washington, D.C.: White House, September 2002.
    Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Estimates on China, November 2004, Central Intelligence Agency, <http://www.foia.cia.gov/china_collection.asp>.
    Department of Defense, Annual Report Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2002/07/12, <http://hongkong.usconsulate.gov/uscn/others/2002/071201.pdf>
    Foreign Policy Association, Great Decisions 2005, Updates Spring 2005, <http://www.fpa.org/usr_doc/Spring_update_2005.pdf>.
    National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts, December 2000, <http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/globaltrends2015/index.html>.
    The Pew Global Attitudes Project, “What the World Thinks in 2002: How Global Publics View: Their Lives, Their Countries, The World, America,” 2002/12/04, The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, <http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=165>.
    USCC, Report to Congress of the United States-China Security Review Commission, July 2002, <http://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2000_2003/reports/anrp02.htm>.
    U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, June 2000, <www.defenselink.mil/news/Jun2000/china06222000.htm>.
    U.S. Department of Defense, FY04 Report to Congress on PRC Military Power, p.10, <www.defenselink.mil/pubs/d20040528PRC.pdf>.
    White House, A National Security Strategy for a New Century, Washington, D.C.: White House, 1999, <http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/other_pubs/nssr99.pdf>.

    二、英文媒體

    Asia Times Online, 2001/12/05, <http://www.atimes.com/china/CL05Ad01.html>.
    International Herald Tribune, 2002/06/20, <http://www.iht.com/cgi-bin/generic.cgi?template=articleprint.tmplh&ArticleID=61985>.
    Fincher, Leta Hong, “Japan’s Campaign for a Permanent Seat on the United Nations Security Council,” Voice of America, 2005/04/08, <http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-04-08-voa8.cfm>
    PBS, “Chinese Challenge to Taiwan,” 2005/03/14, <http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/jan-june05/taiwan_3-14.html>.
    Reuters, “U.S. Nuclear Inquiry Finds China-Iran Link,” YaleGlobal Online, 2004/06/18, <http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/article.print?id=4092>.

    三、座談會紀錄

    Lonnie Henley, “Operational Competence and Chinese Military Modernization,” Asia Program, 2005/01/13, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, <http://wwics.si.edu/events/docs/Presentation%20outline%20-%20Henley%20-%20WC-NDU-LOC%20conference%2013%20Jan%2020.pdf>
    Huang, Jing, “Challenges to China’s Foreign Policy,” in: China, Northeast Asia and the Next American Administration, Panel Ⅲ: China’s External Policy, The Brookings Institution, 2004/12/02, <http://www.brookings.edu/fp/cnaps/events/hongkong20041202d.pdf>.
    Lieberthal, Kenneth, “Making the Chinese System Work Better,” in: China, Northeast Asia and the Next American Administration, Panel Ⅱ: China’s Domestic Scene, The Brookings Institution, 2004/12/2, <http://www.brookings.edu/fp/cnaps/events/hongkong20041202c.pdf>.
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Recent Developments Across the Taiwan Strait: A View from Taipei” 2005/05/17, <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/index.cfm?fa=eventDetail&id=775>.
    Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies Annual Fall Conference, “China, Northeast Asia and the Next American Administration,” The Brookings Institution, 2004/12/02, <http://www.brookings.edu/fp/cnaps/events/hongkong20041202a.pdf>.
    Council on Foreign Relations, “Is China a Google or an Enron?” 2004/12/15, <http://www.cfr.org/pub7574/henry_kaufman_nicholas_r_lardy_gordon_chang_albert_keidel/is_china_a_google_or_an_enron.php>.
    ────, “History Declassified: Nixon in China(Transcript),” 2005/03/21, <http://www.cfr.org/publication.php?id=7980#>.
    Nixon Center, “Evolving U.S.-China Military Ties with China and Taiwan: A Discussion with the Honorable Kurt Campbell,” 2003/01/30, The Nixon Center, <http://www.nixoncenter.org/Program%20Briefs/vol9no3.htm>.
    Voice of America, “Chinese Military,” <http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/china/2005/china-050118-227c5052.htm>.
    Voice of America, “Communist Party Strengthens its Role in Business; Will the Old Way Work?” Association for Asian Research, 2005/02/15, <http://asianresearch.org/articles/2509.html>.
    Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, “Development of the Chinese Military: Implications for the United States and Asia,” Asia Program, 2005/01/13, <http://wwics.si.edu/index.cfm?topic_id=1462&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=101949>.
    ────, “China’s Economy: Will the Bubble Burst?,” 2003/2/12, <http://wwics.si.edu/index.cfm?topic_id=1462&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=19741>.
    ────, “Japan and Russia: Strategic Positioning in East Asia,” 2005/01/18, <http://wwics.si.edu/index.cfm?fuseaction=events.event_summary&event_id=101672>.
    ────, “China’s Economy: Retrospect and Prospect,” The Woodrow Wilson International Center, 2005/03/02, <http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1462&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=107861>.

    四、英文論文

    AEI, “China’s Increasing Prominence in the Global Economy,” AEI Newsletter, February 2005, 2005/02/01, <http://www.aei.org/news/filter.all,newsID.21841/news_detail.asp>.
    Armacost, Michael H.and Kenneth B. Pyle, “Japan and the Engagement of China: Challenges for U.S. Policy Coordination,” NBR Analysis, Volume 12 Number 5, The National Bureau of Asian Research, <http://www.nbr.org/publications/issue.aspx?ID=e6a97f85-21cc-48e3-8f7f-d31964631d27>.
    Asahi Shimbun Editorial, “Japan-China relations,” The Asahi Shimbun, 2004/12/14, <http://www.asahi.com/english/opinion/TKY200412140173.html>.
    Baucus, Max, “Asia’s Rightful Place in the American Trade Agenda,” NBR Special Report, No.8, March 2005, The National Bureau of Asian Research, <http://www.nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/SR8.pdf>.
    Bean, Peter, “U.S.-Asia Relations: More Than Just an Afterthought,” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2004/10/22, <http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.item&news_id=98087>.
    Bernier, Justin and Stuart Gold, “China’s Closing Window of Opportunity,” The Naval War College Review, Summer 2003, <http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2003/Summer/art3-su3.htm>.
    Blair, Dennis C. and John T. Hanley Jr., “From Wheels to Webs: Reconstructing Asia-Pacific Security Arrangements,” The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2001, Volume 24, <http://www.twq.com/winter01/blair.html>.
    Banlaoi, Rommel C., “Southeast Asian Perspectives on the Rise of China: Regional Security After 9/11, US Army War College Quarterly, Parameters, Summer 2003, <http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/03summer/banlaoi.htm>.
    Bernier, Justin and Stuart Gold, “China’s Closing Window of Opportunity,” The Naval War College Review, Summer 2003, <http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2003/Summer/art3-su3.htm>.
    Birchall, Jonathan and Victor Mallet, “Buoyant Bush Sets Out Agenda,” Financial Times, 2004/11/04, <http://news.ft.com/cms/s/80b92b1e-2e5f-11d9-b371-00000e2511c8.html>.
    Blumenthal, Dan and Randy Scheunemann, National Review Online, 2005/01/27, <http://www.newamericancentury.org/taiwan-20050127.htm >.
    Boese, Wade, “Taiwan’s Chen Proposes Arms Control With China, But Seeks U.S. Arm,” Arms Control Today, November 2004, Arms Control Association, <http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_11/Taiwan.asp>.
    Bolton, John R., “Coordinating Allied Approaches to China,” U.S. Department of State, 2005/02/07, <http://www.state.gov/t/us/rm/41938.htm>.
    Bork, Ellen, “Europe , China and the Arms Embargo: The Implications of Sino-Chinese Partnership for American Interest,” Project for the New American Century, 2005/02/01, <http://www.newamericancentury.org/china-20050201.htm>.
    Bowring, Philip, “A Dose of Realism,” International Herald Tribune, 2005/02/22, <http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/02/21/opinion/edbow.html>.
    ────, “Taiwan Rejoining China? Not Just Yet,” World Security Network, 2005/05/04, <http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/showArticle3.cfm?article_id=11359&topicID=63>.
    Bremmer, Ian, “Get China and South Korea on Board, International Herald Tribune, 2005/02/25, <http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/24/opinion/edbremmer.html>.
    Brookes, Peter, “U.S.-Taiwan Defense Relations in the Bush Administration, Heritage Lectures, 2003/11/14, The Heritage Foundation, <http://www.heritage.org/asiaandthepacific/hl808.cfm>.
    ────, “Arming China,” New York Post, 2004/07/19, <http://www.nypost.com/cgi-bin/printfriendly.pl>.
    ────, “A Bad Idea Whose Time Has Come: The Lifting of the EU Arms Embargo on China,” WebMemo #672, 2005/02/23, The Heritage Foundation, <http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/wm672.cfm>.
    ────, “China’s Influence in the Western Hemisphere,” Testimony, The Heritage Foundation, 2005/04/06, <http://www.heritage.org/Research/TradeandForeignAid/tst040605a.cfm>.
    Brown, Christopher, “Trade Won’t Change China,” Front Page Magazine, June 23, 2005, <http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=18527>.
    Brown, David, “Groping for a Formula for Cross-Strait Talks,” Comparative Connections, 2nd Quarter 2000, July 2000, Pacific Forum CSIS, <http://www.csis.org/pacfor/cc/002Qchina_taiwan.html>.
    Brzezinski, Zbigniew, John J. Mearsheimer, “Clash of the Titans,” Foreign Policy, January-February 2005, <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2740>.
    Bush, Richard, “United States Foreign Policy Toward East Asia,” The Brookings Institution, 2004/12/02, <http://www.brookings.edu/fp/cnaps/events/hongkong20041202a.pdf>.
    Chambers, Michael, “China and Southeast Asia: Creating a ‘Win-Win’ Neighborhood,” Asia Program Special Report, No.126, January 2005, Woodrow Wilson International Center, <http://wwics.si.edu/topics/pubs/ASIAreport_No126.pdf>.
    Chen Yali and Eric Hagt, “Anti-secession Law: Provocation or Compromise?,” Association for Asian Research, 2005/01/28, <http://www.asianresearch.org/articles/2483.html>.
    Cheow, Eric Teo Chu, “Taiwan`s role in the Sino-Japanese rivalry,” Association for Asian Research, 2005/04/29, <http://asianresearch.org/articles/2582.html>.
    Christensen, Thomas, “Chinese Realpolitik,” Foreign Affairs, Volume 75, No. 5, 1996.
    ────, “Beijing’s Views of Taiwan and the United States in Early 2002: The Renaissance of Pessimism,” China Leadership Monitor, No. 3, Summer 2002, Hoover Institution, <http://www.chinaleadershipmonitor.org/20023/TC.html>.
    ────, “The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan Conflict,” The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2002, pp.7-21.
    Cliff, Roger, The Military Potential of China`s Commercial Technology, RAND, 2001, <http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1292/>.
    Cole, Bernard D., “Waterways and Strategy: China’s Priorities,” Association for Asian Research, 2005/02/20, <http://asianresearch.org/articles/2526.html>.
    Conetta, Carl, “9/11 and the Meanings of Military Transformation,” Project on Defense Alternatives, 2003/02/16, <http://www.comw.org/pda/0302conetta.html>.
    Crowell, Todd, “China and the Guns of August,” Global Beat Syndicate, 2005/03/21, <http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat/syndicate/crowell032105.html>.
    Dale, Reginald, “The EU’s Foolish Idea of Selling Arms to China,” International Herald Tribune, 2004/07/15, <http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?file=529383.html>.
    Deng, Yong and Thomas Moore, “China Views Globalization: Toward a New Great-Power Politics?,” The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2004, <http://www.twq.com/04summer/docs/04summer_deng-moore.pdf>.
    DeVore, Chuck, “On Taiwan, Beijing Knows Exactly What It Is Doing,” China Brief, Vol. 1, Issue 9, 2001/11/08, The Jamestown Foundation, <http://china.jamestown.org/pubs/view/cwe_001_009_002.htm>.
    Dillon, Dana, Harvey Feldman、Balbina Hwang, John Tkacik, “Asia’s Security Challenges,” Backgrounder, No. 1839, 2004/04/04, The Heritage Foundation, <http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/bg1839.cfm>.
    Donnelly, Thomas, “Who Forgot China?,” 2005/01/03, AEI, <http://www.aei.org/news/newsID.21771,filter.all/news_detail.asp>.
    ────, “Strategy and Air Power,” National Security Outlook, AEI, 2005/03/01, <http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.22041/pub_detail.asp>.
    Dreyer, June Teufel, “Flashpoint: The Taiwan Strait,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2000/06/30, <http://www.fpri.org/enotes/asia.20000630.dreyer.flashpointtaiwanstrait.html>.
    Easley, Leif-Eric, “Interview with Thomas Christensen: The Chinese Military and Post 9/11 Sino-US Relations,” Autumn 2002, Harvard Asia Quarterly, <http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~asiactr/haq/200204/0204a001.htm>.
    Einhorn, Robert, “China and Non-Proliferation,” In the National Interest, 2003/04/02, <http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/Vol2Issue13/vol2issue13einhorn1.html>.
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    ────, “Riding the Dragon, Soaring on Eagles,” FPIF Policy Report, April 2005, Foreign Policy in Focus, <http://www.fpif.org/papers/0503dragon.html>.
    Spence, Jonathan, “The Once and Future China,” Foreign Policy, January-February 2005, <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/files/story2754.php>.
    Storey, Ian and You Ji, “China’s Aircraft Carrier Ambitions: Seeking Truth From Rumors,” Naval War College Review, Winter 2004, <http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2004/Winter/art6-w04.htm>.
    Strategic Comments, “Japan’s New Defense Posture: Towards Power-Projection,” World Security Network, 2005/02/02, <http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/showArticle3.cfm?article_id=10444&topicID=54>.
    Suettinger, Robert, “The Rise and Descent of ‘Peaceful Rise’,” China Leadership Monitor, Fall 2004, The Nixon Center, <http://www.chinaleadershipmonitor.org/20044/rs.html>.
    Sutter, Robert ,“China’s Recent Approach to Asia: Seeking Long-Term Gains,” NBR Analysis, Vol.13, No.1, March 2002, The National Bureau of Asian Research, <http://www.nbr.org/publications/analysis/pdf/vol13no1.pdf>.
    ────, “Why Does China Matter?,” The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2003-4, <http://www.twq.com/04winter/index.cfm?id=85>.
    ────, “The United States and China’s Regional Policy,” China-Eurasia Forum, February 2004, <http://www.chinaeuraisa.org/Newsletter~ns4.html>.
    ────, “China’s Rise in Asia: Promises, Prospects and Implications for the United States,” APCSS Occasional Paper, The Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies(APCSS), February 2005, <http://www.apcss.org/Publications/Ocasional%20Papers/OPChinas%20Rise.pdf>.
    Snyder, Scott, “All Eyes on Beijing: Raising the Stakes,” Comparative Connections, Vol. 7, No. 1-1st Quarter 2005, April 2005, Pacific Forum, CSIS, <http://www.csis.org/pacfor/cc/0501Qchina_skorea.html>.
    Swaine, Michael, “Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S. –China Relations,” Policy Brief 22, February 2003, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, <http://www.ceip.org/files/Publications/Swaine_PB22.asp?from=pubdate>.
    ────, “Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Successes and Failures of Taiwan’s Defense Reform and Modernization Program,” Carnegie Papers, China Program, Number 46, July 2004, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, <http://www.ceip.org/files/publications/taiwan_strait.ASP>.
    Takeda, Yoshinori, “Sources of Strain in Northeast Asia,” 2003/12/17, The Carnegie Moscow Center, <http://www.carnegie.ru/en/pubs/media/69447.htm>.
    Talbott, Strobe, “China, Northeast Asia, and the Next American Administration Luncheon Session,” The Brookings Institution, 2004/12/02, <http://www.brookings.edu/fp/cnaps/events/hongkong20041202b.pdf>
    Tao Wenzhao, “Bush’s Reelection and the Future of Sino-U.S. Relations: A Chinese Perspective,” Freeman Report, November 2004, The Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS, <http://www.csis.org/china/FRN/FRv02v11.pdf>.
    Tellis, Ashly, “Confronting Terrorism, Consolidating Primacy,” Strategic Asia 2004-05, The National Bureau of Asian Research, <http://www.nbr.org/regional_studies/strategic_asia04.html>.
    Tkacik, John J., “The Trouble in Taiwan,” The Heritage Foundation, 2004/12/15, <http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed121504b.cfm>.
    Tompkins, Joanne, “How U.S. Strategic Policy is Changing China’s Nuclear Plans,” Arms Control Today, January/February 2003, Arms Control Association, <http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_01-02/tompkins_janfeb03.asp>.
    Tucker, Nancy Bernkopf, “Balancing Act: Bush, Beijing and Taipei,” in: George W. Bush and East Asia: A First Term Assessment, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2005, pp.131-144, <http://wwics.si.edu/index.cfm?topic_id=1462&fuseaction=topics.publications&group_id=128705>.
    Tyson, Ann Scott, “US, China Cautiously Rekindle Military Ties,” The Christian Science Monitor, 2002/02/20, <http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0220/p02s02-woap.htm>.
    Vatikiotis, Michael, “U.S. sights are back on China,” WorldSecurity Network, 2005/06/07, <http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/showArticle3.cfm?article_id=11526&topicID=33>.
    Vicenzino, Marco, “Rift in the Americas,” In the National Interest, April 2005, <http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/April%202005/April2005Vicenzino.html>.
    Watanabe, Akio, “A Continuum of Change,” The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2004, 27: 4, pp.137-146.
    Wendt, Alexander, “Collective Identity Formation and International State,” American Political Science Review, Summer 1994.
    Williams, Ian, “Bush’s Perverse UN Pick,” The Nation, 2005/03/08, <http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20050321&s=williams>.
    Wang Jisi, “China’s Changing Role in Asia,” The Atlantic Council of the United States, Asia Programs, January 2004, <http://www.acus.org/Publications/occasionalpapers/Asia/WangJisi_Jan_04.pdf>.
    Wolf, Martin, “Why is China Growing so Slow?,”Foreign Policy, January/February 2005, <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/files/story2754.php>.
    Wolfshal, Jon, “NK Nukes Threaten US-China Ties: Experts,” The Korea Times, 2005/01/31, <http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200501/kt2005013116390811990.htm>.
    Wortzel, Larry M., “Change Partners: Who Are America`s Military and Economic Allies in the 21st Century?,” Heritage Lecture #886, 2005/06/06, The Heritage Foundation, <http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/hl886.cfm>.
    Wu, Anne, “What China Whispers to North Korea,” The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2005, <http://www.twq.com/05spring/docs/05spring_wu.pdf>.
    Wu Xinbo, “The Promise and Limitations of a Sion-U.S. Partnership,” The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2004, <http://www.twq.com/04autumn/docs/04autumn_wu.pdf>.

    Yongshun, Cai, “Between State and Peasant: Local Cadres and Statistical
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    Zhu Feng, “China-US Relations and Its Implications to N. Korea’s Nuclear Standoff,” Freeman Chair in China Studies, 2004/08/18, CSIS, <http://www.csis.org/china/040818_Zhu.pdf>.

    五、英文專書

    Bert, Wayne, The United States, China and Southeast Asian Security: A Changing of the Guard?, Palgrave Macmillan, 2003.
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    Bullard, Monte R., Strait Talk: Avoiding a Nuclear War between the United-States and China over Taiwan, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, December 15, 2004.
    Chang, Gordon G., The Coming Collapse of China, Random House, 2001.
    Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan S. Medeiros, James C. Mulvenon and William H. Overholt, Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints, RAND, 2005, pp.41-43, <http://www.rand.org/publications/MG/MG260/index.html>
    Donnelly, Thomas, The Military We Need: The Defense Requirements of the Bush Doctrine, AEI Press, May 2005, <http://www.aei.org/docLib/20050427_book819text.pdf>.
    Gompert, David C. and François Godement, Evan S. Medeiros, James C. Mulvenon, China on the Move: A Franco-American Analysis of Emerging Chinese Strategic Policies and Their Consequences for Transatlantic Relations, The RAND Corporation, 2005.
    Gries, Peter Hays, China’s New Nationalism: Pride, Politics and Diplomacy, University of California Press, 2004.
    Huntington, Samuel P., The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996.
    Isaac, Jeffrey, Power and Marxist Theory: A Realist View, Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1987.
    Jones, David Martin, The Image of China in Western Social and Political Thought, Palgrave, 2001.
    Kirby, William C., Realms of Freedom in Modern China, Stanford University Press, 2004.
    Lieberthal, Kenneth and Michel Oksenberg, Policy Making in China, Princeton University Press, 1988.
    Oi , Jean C., State and Peasant in Contemporary China: The Political Economy of Village Government , University of California Press, 1989.
    Seong, Somi and Stephen W. Popper, Strategic Choices in Science and Technology: Korea in the Era of a Rising China, RAND Corporation, 2005, <http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG320.sum.pdf>.
    Shambaugh, David (ed.), American Studies of Contemporary China, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1993.
    Shirk, Susan, The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China, University of California Press, 1993.
    Shue, Vivienne, The Reach of the State: Sketches of the Chinese Body Politics, Stanford University Press, 1988.
    Stone, D. and A. Denham, Think Tank Traditions, Policy Research and the Politics of Ideas, Manchester University Press, 2004.
    Tkacik, John J. (ed.), Rethinking One China, The Heritage Foundation, 2005, <http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/One-China.cfm>.
    Tucker, Nancy Berkopf, Dangerous Strait: The U.S.-Taiwan-China Crisis, Columbia University Press, 2005, <http://www.columbia.edu/cu/cup/catalog/data/023113/0231135645.HTM>.
    Wendt, Alexander, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge University Press, 1999.
    Wolf, Charles, Jr., K. C. Yeh, Benjamin Zycher, Nicholas Eberstadt, Sung-Ho Lee, Fault Lines in China’s Economic Terrain, RAND, 2003, <http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1686/>.
    Zagoria, Donald S., Breaking the China-Taiwan Impasse, Praeger, October 2003.
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