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    題名: 墨西哥與台灣石化產業發展路徑分歧與經濟結果的比較，1980-2010：市場、國家與階級聯盟
    Divergent Paths of Development in Petrochemical Sector and Economic Performances, 1980-2010: The Market, State and Class Alliance in Mexico and Taiwan
    作者: 黃富娟
    Huang, Fu-Chuan
    貢獻者: 劉雅靈
    Liu, Yia-ling
    黃富娟
    Huang, Fu-Chuan
    關鍵詞: 石化產業
    市場結構
    墨西哥石油
    台灣中油
    階級聯盟
    國家
    petrochemical industry
    market structure
    class alliance
    the state
    PEMEX
    CPC
    日期: 2014
    上傳時間: 2015-05-01 11:38:13 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本論文旨在探討1980年中期的「關鍵時期」（critical juncture），墨西哥與台灣相繼從國家-發展主義（national-developmentalism）轉向新自由主義（neoliberalism）過程中，為何石化產業會從1980年以前發展路徑的相似，走向發展路徑分歧與迥異的經濟表現？基於市場創發並不始於轉型期，本研究提出三個變項---市場結構、國家與階級聯盟，形成的一組因果關係作為分析架構，試圖去論證新自由主義作為一套「經濟政策架構」與「治理理念」在進入國家內部之後，並未造成新古典經濟學宣稱的發展路徑趨同。實際上發展型國家在建立初期的歷史制度與脈絡特定的鑲嵌，已揭示轉向新自由主義必然遇到的阻礙。因此沒有兩個國家會走向發展路徑趨同的結果。
    本研究試圖透過三個變項形成的因果關係，說明：第一，國家對於石化市場的自由化改革如何重構一個治理結構，並影響國家與企業進行生產協調的意願？同時也試圖釐清市場結構、石化產業運作邏輯以及經濟表現之間的關聯性？第二，國家為何選擇這一種、而非另一種政策？新自由主義的市場理念作為治理的基礎知識應用，也會受到技術官僚的專業知識與對理念認知深淺的差異，鑲嵌到政策內容，形成理念對政策的構成性效果。此一效果又受到國家內部結構與政策成本的牽制。第三，最終國家無法落實國有石油企業產權私有化，是否真如自由主義所言，必然受到國家干預時期創造的發展型聯盟的牽制？
    研究發現，兩國在上游國有石油企業產權無法私有化之下，取而代之走向推動組織重組來提振效率，並分別引進墨西哥的「委包制度」與台灣「公私雙軌體系」，並無可避免地形成國家與市場協調的混合市場經濟（Mixed-Market Economies, MMEs）。問題是，墨西哥使用市場機制拆解生產鏈並落實委包制度，未能誘發公私夥伴合作關係，主因是原料供應價格、勞資衝突與國家控制供應端的再管制措施；反之，台灣發展出雙體系寡占的市場區隔與各自體系的關係契約與內部價格作為協調機制，呈現較為有效的國家干預。
    那麼國家治理的政策偏好如何形成？墨西哥新古典經濟學技術官僚對市場理念高度推崇。但受到石油出口作為國家稅收來源的牽制，做出重石油、輕石化的政策；反之，台灣理工技術官僚延續發展意識，他們熟悉產業特性與技術知識，並致力維繫生產鏈整合與供應穩定度作為因應市場競爭的利基。
    最終，兩國都受到歷史制度與脈絡特定形構的關係結盟與鑲嵌情境的影響，形成促進與抑制政策走向的力量。墨西哥與台灣都在黨國時期，選擇與資本家和工會結盟，以創造的不均衡的發展結構。但1990年代政治民主化帶來國家與階級聯盟的關係內容與鑲嵌情境的轉變，且國家也無法避免必須與中產階級鑲嵌，並在此一階段形成國家與三組階級聯盟的互動關係。
    研究發現，墨西哥石油工會與政黨之間的政治侍從關係，結合中產階級對於私有化負面觀感和國族主義的理念鑲嵌，壓倒了國家與資本家企圖推動產權私有化的企圖；反之，台灣的石油工會善用黨國時期與政黨發展出的特殊情誼，阻止私有化法案通過，石化企業則因為歷史上長期接受中油補貼造成的依賴心理，也反對產權私有化。最終形成工會與企業在反對中油產權私有化議題上的結盟。除此之外，國家與特定階級的結盟關係與鑲嵌內容，更說明了支撐市場運作背後的結構特徵與價值共識的來源。
    本研究透過三個變項形成的作用關係，說明了新自由主義進入早期的發展型國家，如何限制國家的政策選擇、影響市場結構的形成，並引導兩國石化產業走向發展路徑與經濟表現的分歧。最終，本研究論證了市場創發並不始於轉型期，兩國在轉向新自由主義階段展現的政策偏好差異，事實上源自於發展前期的歷史制度和脈絡特定的階級關係，結果是沒有兩個國家在轉向新自由主義的過程中會走向發展路徑的趨同。
    The purpose of this research is to seek explanations on why the development paths of petrochemical industry in Mexico and Taiwan diverge largely after the shift from interventionist state to neo-liberalism in mid-1980. The research defined the neo-liberalism as an “economic policy framework” and “managerial ideology” and argued that the penetration of neo-liberalism to the state would not produce convergent paths due to the previous state legacy and context-specific embeddedness.
    The research combines three independent variables to establish an analytical framework, namely market structure, the state and class alliance. The research expects to understand how variables affect the policy formation and confound one another to forming a dynamic causal-effect to facilitate or limit policy choices, eventually leads to the formation of different types of market structure and respective economic performances.
    In fact, both Mexico and Taiwan have led to the formation of different types of mixed–market economies (MMEs) in mid-1980s, featuring in state controlling the upper stream of petrochemical production chain. Mexico comes to a rupture in backward linkage and importing a large quantity of immediate chemical products with huge trade deficit while implementing privatized contractors, whereas Taiwanese petrochemical industry demonstrates a backward and forward linkage, exporting surplus petrochemical products.
    The research findings have illustrated that Mexico’s model via “PEMEX and contractors” has failed to create incentives for public-private partnership as well as attract investment. By contrast, the more effective state intervention in Taiwan’s petrochemical industry has helped to develop a state-business co-evolution model, featuring in market segmentation but at the same time complementing to public/private firms cooperation in the market.
    In addition, the research also has shown that the economic outcomes were determined by the policy principles of technocrats, whose ideas were shaped by perceptions of the market ideas and development consciousness, and further constrained by historically specific institutions. The Mexican case shows how “neo-classical” economic technocrats can prioritize market ideas, but in a manner that is heavily offset by petroleum-centered ideology. In contrast, Taiwanese engineering technocrats remain development consciousness. They have projected technical knowledge to policies, and recognized “reverse integration” as a niche for forging industrial integration.
    Last, but not least, the privatization in two cases has been restricted by strong boycott of petrounion. This is considered to be a legacy of party state in both cases. The research also shows how the conflict of interests among social classes along with democratization and marketization has limited the state’s policy choice. In addition, the research explains how the specific typology of state-class alliance and its content-specific embeddedness would provide collective value and consensus for economic actors in the market, serving as an underlying support to the market structure.
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    其他官方網站：
    Asociación Nacional de la Industria Química（ANIQ）：http://webpublico.aniq.org.mx/Paginas/home.aspx
    Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática（INEGI）：http://www.inegi.org.mx/
    PEMEX-Petroquímica（PPQ）：http://www.ptq.pemex.com/Paginas/default.aspx
    PetróleoMexicanos（PEMEX）：http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=content§ionID=5&catID=27
    Secretaría de Energía（SENER）：http://www.energia.gob.mx/
    World Bank（WB）：http://www.worldbank.org/
    中華民國統計資料網：http://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4
    台灣中國石油網站：http://new.cpc.com.tw/Home/
    台灣石油工會網站：http://www.tpwu.org.tw/photo.htm
    石油化學同業公會網站：http://www.piat.org.tw/
    經濟部統計處：http://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/home/Home.aspx
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