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| Title: | 以社群媒體為考量之選民政治傾向探索
Predicting the Political Preference of Plurk Users |
| Authors: | 江家榕
Chiang, Chia Jung |
| Contributors: | 陳良弼
Chen, L. P.
江家榕
Chiang, Chia Jung |
| Keywords: | 社群媒體
政治傾向 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| Issue Date: | 2015-03-02 10:13:50 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 近年來，社群媒體的廣為使用，讓人們可以輕易地在社群網站中發表想法
或是接收感興趣的資訊，促使許多研究專注於探究這些大量的個人化資訊
所提供之預測力。
本研究擬從社群媒體著手，以臺灣 2012 總統大選為背景，收集投票日
前六個月選民資料，進而透過文字訊息以及互動結構特徵達成選民政治傾
向分析。實驗結果發現，預測政治熱衷使用者之政治傾向準確度可達
94.08%。
此外，因游離選民通常為選舉致勝關鍵點，本研究不僅僅將選民分為兩
黨，並依據其於選舉前之熱門政治討論議題之立場變化，將其細分為五個
族群(深藍、淺藍、中立、淺綠、深綠)，以拓展應用於其他實務，如競選
策略等，使其更具有實用性。而熱門政治討論議題之選擇可透過以日為單
位，擷取政治新聞關鍵字，並計算其於噗浪上的討論程度決定。最終，可
將 275 名使用者細分為五個群體，並選擇淺藍、中立、淺綠等 208 名為主
要宣傳目標，以提升競選策略成效。
Nowadays, the use of social media is increasingly popular all over the world.
People can easily express their thoughts or receive information that they are
interested in via social media. Many studies have focused on exploring the
predictive power of the large amount of data generated from social media.
In this thesis, we address the problem of predicting the political preference
of social media users given the data of their past activities on Plurk and
evaluating our approach on the Taiwan 2012 presidential election. We first
collected Plurk messages posted six months before the election day. By building
predicting models based on a variety of contextual and behavioral features, we
find that predicting political preference of active users achieved up to 94.08%
classification accuracy. In the meanwhile, in order to extend the usability of our
work, we further use our models to analyze the change of user political
preference based on political events which happened before the election.
Identifying people who change their political preference frequently or stay
neutrally allows a candidate to design strategies to affect these people. All of the
political events are automatically selected by the popularity of political
keywords used in Plurk, and keywords can be extracted from daily political
news. In the end, we get 208 swing voters from 275 voters, who become the
main targets for enhancing the effectiveness of the campaign strategy. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊科學學系
101753008
103 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1017530081 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [資訊科學系] 學位論文
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