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    题名: 大眾媒介與政權更替：以顏色革命與阿拉伯之春為例
    The Mass Media and Regime Change: The Cases of Color Revolution and the Arab Spring
    作者: 梁珮綺
    Liang, Pei Chi
    贡献者: 林永芳
    Lin, Yung Fang
    梁珮綺
    Liang, Pei Chi
    关键词: 顏色革命
    阿拉伯之春
    大眾媒介
    大眾媒介
    政權更替
    Color Revolution
    Arab Spring
    Mass Media
    Social Media
    Regime Change
    日期: 2014
    上传时间: 2015-02-03 10:31:40 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 2003年，喬治亞民眾因不滿政府選舉舞弊而爆發玫瑰革命，翌年，烏克蘭同樣因民眾不滿選舉舞弊而爆發橙色革命，兩者革命性質成因相同，且都成功推翻舊有領導人，被學者認為是第三波民主化浪潮之一，稱為顏色革命；2010年，中東國家突尼西亞爆發茉莉花革命，翌年，這把革命之火延燒到臨近國家埃及，造成原有領導人下台。兩波革命發生的時間、地點和成因都不同，但兩波革命發生過程中，大眾媒介皆扮演了重要角色，本文先探討大眾媒介跟政權更替的關聯性，從而探討大眾媒介如何對政權更替造成影響。
    　　顏色革命國家跟阿拉伯之春國家的政權體制、文化、宗教等背景等全然不同，但同樣發生民眾不滿現況而上街抗議，最後促成執政者下台，本文認為，革命之所以成功，大眾媒介是重要推手，因其傳播速度快、無時效性、無地域性，特別是社群媒體，透過社群媒體，民眾動員更迅速，消息的傳播也更為快速。
    This thesis focus on the role of media in the series of revolutions in 2003-2004, which are called “Color Revolution” and the Arab Spring, which had had been broke out from 2010. Some scholars call the revolution in Georgia is “Rose Revolution”, in Ukraine – Orange Revolution, those people successfully overthrow their leader, for this reason, most of them deeply believe that to be the one of the Third Waves of Democratization.
    　　In 2010, Tunisia burst into a revolution and the fire spreads Egypt, the regime also had been overthrow by people. Although the causes of these revolutions are totally different, they have a common point – mass media.
    　　This thesis argues that mass media play an important role in these revolutions, first of all interpret the relationship between mass media and regime, and then analyze that the mass media how to lead to regime change.
    參考文獻: 壹、中文部分（按姓氏筆畫順序排列）
    一、專書
    Carvin, Andy著，鄧伯宸、徐大成譯，《遙遠的目擊者：阿拉伯之春紀事》，新北市：立緒文化，2013。
    Habermas, Jürgen著，曹衛東、王曉玨、劉北城、宋偉杰譯，《公共領域的結構轉型》，台北市：聯經，2002。
    Heywood, Adrew著，楊日青、李培元、林文彬、劉兆隆譯，《Heywood’s 政治學新論》，台北：韋伯文化，2009。
    Morris, Dick著，張志偉譯，《網路民主》，台北市：城邦文化，2000。
    Shapiro, Ian著，陳毓麟譯，《民主理論現況》，台北市：商周，2005。
    Taylor, Lisa and Willis, Andrew著，簡妙如、管中祥、林婉蓉、張貝雯、林智惟譯，《大眾傳播媒體新論》，台北市：韋伯文化，2002。
    江宜樺，《自由民主的理路》，台北市：聯經，2001。
    呂亞力，《政治學》，台北市，五南，1978。
    宋鎮照等合著，《茉莉花浪潮下的新世紀民主化課題與前景：經濟發展、資訊傳播與政治民主》，台南市：國立成功大學政治系，2012。
    林疋愔，《透視茉莉花革命：符號力量的建構》，台北市：秀威資訊出版，2013。
    馬曉霖編，《阿拉伯劇變：西亞、北非大動盪深層觀察》，新華出版社，2013。
    張建中，《大眾媒介與民主轉型：墨西哥個案考》，上海三聯書店，2013。
    彭懷恩著，《政治傳播：理論與實踐》，台北市：風雲論壇，2007。
    趙建民，《威權政治》，台北市：幼獅文化，1994。

    二、期刊、論文
    王正廷，〈喬治亞(2003)、烏克蘭(2004)與吉爾吉斯(2005)政權替換之研究〉，2005，政治大學俄羅斯研究所。
    江宜樺，〈民主〉，「公民社會基本政治社會觀念研究第二次workshop」，2002，中央研究院社科所。
    吳玉山，〈顏色革命的許諾與局限〉，《台灣民主季刊》，第4卷第2期，2007，頁67-112。
    李明哲、唐志宏，〈網路商業化與網路民主：資訊政治經濟學觀點下的討論〉，《資訊社會研究》，第3期，2002，頁251-268。
    林照真，〈因為科技，新聞正處於改變的轉捩點上？〉，《傳播研究與實踐》，第1卷第1期，2011，頁26。
    林麗雲，〈威權主義國家與電視：台灣與南韓之比較〉，《新聞學研究》，第85期，2005，頁1-30。
    郭秋慶，〈當代歐洲極權主義的理論與實際〉，《中央研究院三民主義研究所專題選刊》，第73期，1987，頁1-42。
    許湘濤、吳彥然，〈競爭性威權體制之初探〉，2009台灣政治學會年會暨學術研討會－「動盪年代中的政治學：理論與實踐」，2009。
    張卿卿，〈網路的功與過：網路使用與政治參與及社會資產關係的探討〉，《新聞學研究》，第86期，2006，頁45-90。
    張醒宇，〈新媒體在民主轉型中扮演的角色：以馬來西亞為研究現場〉，中華傳播學會，2012。
    蔡秀勤、張佑宗〈阿拉伯之春的啟示與反思〉，《台灣民主季刊》，第8卷第3期，2011年，頁199-209。

    三、網路資料
    自由電子報，〈推翻獨裁者　突尼西亞人民起義〉，2011年1月16日，〈http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2011/new/jan/16/today-int1.htm〉
    陸以正，〈阿拉伯之春禍福難料〉，《國政評論》，2011，
    〈http://www.npf.org.tw/post/1/9627〉

    貳、英文資料
    一、專書
    Alexander, Christopher, Tunisia: Stability and Reform in the Modern Maghreb (New York: Routledge, 2010).
    Agbese, Aje-Ori, The Role of the Press and Communication Technology in democratization: the Nigerian story (New York: Routledge, c2006).
    Arendt, Hannah, The Origins of Totalitarianism (New York: Meridian Books, 1958).
    Beckett, Charlie, Supermedia: Saving Journalism so It Can Save the World (Malden, Mass. : Blackwell/Wiley, 2008).
    Brynen, Rex... [et al.], Beyond the Arab Spring: authoritarianism and democratization in the Arab world (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2012).
    Curran, James, and Gurevitch, Michael, Mass Media and Society (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000).
    Dabashi, Hamid, The Arab Spring: The End of Postcolonialism (London: Zed Books Ltd, 2012).
    Dahl, Robert A., Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven, [Conn.]: Yale University Press, 1971).
    Dahl, Robert A., On Democracy (New Haven, Conn. : Yale University Press, 1988).
    El-Bendary, Mohamed, The Egyptian Press and Coverage of Local and International Events (Lanham, Md.: Lexington Books, c2010).
    El-Mahai, Rabab, and Marfleet, Philip eds., Egypt: The Moment of Change (London: Zed Books Ltd, 2009).
    Fluri, Philipp H., and Cole, Eden eds., From Revolution to Reform: Georgia’s Struggle with Democratic Institution Building and Security Sector Reform (Bureau for Security Policy at the Austrian Ministry of Defence; National Defence Academy, Vienna, 2005).
    Friedrich, Carl, Totalitarian Dictatorship and Autocracy (Cambridge, [Mass.] : Harvard University Press, 1965).
    Huntington, Samuel P., The Third Wave: Democratization in the Last Twentieth Century (Norma and London: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).
    Karumidze, Zurab, and Wertsch, James V. eds., Enouth! The Rose Revolution in the Republic of Georgia 2003 (New York: New Science, 2005).
    Larémont, Ricardo René, ed., Revolution, Revolt, and Reform in North Africa: The Arab Spring and Beyond (New York: Routledge, 2014).
    Levinson, Paul, New new media (Boston, Mass.: Allyn & Bacon, c2009).
    Lin, Juan, Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2000).
    Lijphart, Arend, Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1999).
    Malloy, James, ed., Authoritarianism and Corporatism in Latin America (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh, c1977).
    McPhail, Clark, The Myth of the Madding Crowd (Transaction Pub, 1991).
    McNair, Brian, An Introduction to Political Communication (New York: Routledge, 2011).
    McQail, Denis, Media Performance: Mass Communication and the Public Interest (Calif.: SAGE, 1992).
    McQail, Denis, McQail’s Mass Communication Theory 4th ed. (Calif.: SAGE Publications, 2000).
    Mughan, Anthony, and Gunther, Richard eds., Democracy and the Media: A Comparative Perspective (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
    Niżnik, Józef, and Ryabinska, Natalya eds., Political accountability: conceptual, theoretical and empirical dimensions (Warsaw: IFiS Publishers, 2007).
    Przeworski, Adam, Democracy and market: political and economic reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991).
    Pateman, Carole, Participation and democratic theory (Cambridge [Eng.]: University Press, 1970).
    Rawnsley, Gary, Political Communication and Democracy (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).
    Schumpeter, Joseph Alois, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (Boston: Unwin Paperbacks, 1987).
    Stockmann, Daniela, Media Commercialization and Authoritarian Rule in China (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013).
    Street, John, Mass Media and Democracy (New York: Palgrave, 2001).

    二、期刊、論文
    Anable, David, “The Role of Georgia’s Media – and Western Aid – in the Rose Revolution”, Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy (Fall 2005).
    Bimber, Bruce, ”The Study of Information Technology and Civic Engagement”, Political Communication, Vol. 17 (2000), pp. 329-333.
    Bodle, Robert, “Assessing Social Network Sites as International Platforms”, Journal of International Communication, Vol. 16, No. 2 (2010), pp. 9-24.
    Chebib, Nadine Kassem, and Sohail, Rabia Minatullah, “The Reasons Social Media Contributed to the 2011 Egyptian Revolution“, International Journal of Business Research and Management, Vol. 2, No. 3 (2011), pp. 139-162.
    Christensen, Christian, “Discourses of Technology and Liberation: State Aid to Net Activists in an Era of ‘Twitter Revolutions’”, The Communication Review, Vol. 14, No. 3 (2011), pp. 233-253.
    Coleman, Stephen, “The New Media and Democratic Politics”, New Media and Society, Vol. 1, No.1 (April 1999), pp. 67-74.
    Diamond, Larry, “Thinking about Hybird Regimes”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 2 (April 2002), pp. 21-35.
    Fairbanks, Charles H., “Revolution Reconsidered”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 18, No. 2 (January 2007), pp. 42-57.
    Fatima el-lssawi, “Tunisian Media in Transition”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (July 2012), pp. 1-28.
    Fenton, Natalie, and Barassi, Veronica, “Alternative Media and Social Networking Sties: The Politics of Individuation and Political Participation”, The Communication Review, Vol. 14, No. 3 (2011), pp. 179-196.
    Goldstein, Joshua, “The Role of Digital Networked Technologies in the Ukrainian Orange Revolution”, Internet & Democracy Case Study Series, No. 14 (December 2007), pp. 1-10.
    Hale, Henry E., “Democracy or Autocracy on the March? The Colored Revolutions as Normal Dynamics of Patronal Presidentialism”, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 39 (2006), pp. 305-329.
    Hopmann, P. Terrence, and Zartman, I. William eds., “Tunisia: Understanding Conflict 2012”, Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced International Studies.
    Howard, Philip N., and Hussain, Muzammi M., “The Role of Digital Media”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 22, No. 3 (January 2011), pp. 35-48.
    Ismail, Salwa, “Civilities, Subjectivities and Collective Action: Preliminary Reflection in Light of the Egyptian Revolution”, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 32, No. 5 (2011), pp. 989-995.
    Jennings, Kentand, and Zeitner, Vicki, “Internet use and civic engagement: a longitudinal analysis”, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 67, No. 3 (2003), pp. 312-334.
    Joffe, George, “The Arab Spring in North Africa: Origins and Prospects”, The Journal of North African Studies, Vol. 16, No. 4 (2011), pp. 507-532.
    Kalandadze, Katya, Orenstein, Mitchell A., “Electoral Protests and Democratization: Beyond the Color Revolutions“, Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 42, No. 11 (November 2009), pp. 1403-1425.
    Kandelaki, Giogi, “Georgia’s Rose Revolution: A Participant’s Perspective”, United States Institute of Peace (2006).
    Kevanishvili, Eka, and Papuashvili, Simon, “Putinization Georgia: Georgian Media after the Rose Revolution”, The Human Rights Centre (HRIDC), 2008.
    Kyj, Myroslaw J., “Internet use in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution”, Business Horizons, Vol. 49 (2006), pp. 71-80.
    Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan, “The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 2 (April 2002), pp. 51-65.
    Logan, Tyler Pentland, “When authoritarianism failed in Tunisia: An Investigation of the Ben Ali Regime and the Factors that Led to Its Downfall”, Faculty of Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University (April 2012).
    Masoud, Tarek, “The Road to and from Liberation Square”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 22, No. 3 (July 2011), pp. 20-34.
    Mendel, Toby, “Political and Media Transitions in Egypt: A Snapshot of Media Policy and Regulatory Environment”, Internews (August 2011), pp. 1-23.
    McFaul, Michael, “Ukraine Imports Democracy: External Influences on the Orange Revolution”, International Security, Vol. 32, No. 2 (Fall 2007), PP. 45-83.
    McFaul, Michael “Transitions from Postcommunism”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 16, No. 3 (July 2005), pp. 5-19.
    Mir, Joan Barata, “Political and Media Transitions in Tunisia: A Snapshot of Media Policy and Regulatory Environment”, Internews (August 2011), pp. 1-18.
    Morozov, Evgeny, “Whither Internet Control”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 22, No. 2 (April 2011), pp. 62-74.
    Plattner, Marc, “The Global Context”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 22, No. 4 (October 2011), pp. 5-12.
    Ruget, Vanessa, and Usmanalieva, Burul, “The Impact of State Weakness on Citizenship A Case Study of Kyrgyzstan”, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 40 (2007), pp. 441-458
    Ryabinska, Natalya, “The Media Market and Media Ownership in Post-Communist Ukraine: Impact on Media Independent and Pluralism“, Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 58, No. 6 (November/December 2011), pp. 3-20.
    Ryabinska, Natalya, “International News Production in Ukraine”, Global Media Journal, Vol. 2, No. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2012), pp. 1-21
    Ryabinska, Natalya, “New Media and Democracy in Post-Soviet Countries”, EUROZINE (October 2013), pp. 1-6.
    Schraeder, Peter J., and Redissi, Hamadi, “Ben Ali’s Fall” Journal of Democracy, Vol. 22, No. 3 (January 2011), pp. 5-19.
    Storck, Madeline, “The Role of Social Media in Political Mobilisation: a Case Study of the January 2011 Egyptian Uprising”, Degree of M.A. at the University of St Andrews (December 2011).
    Syed, Maria, “Egypt and Tunisia Testing Grounds for Goldstone’s Assertions on the Revolutionary Process”, Journal of Security Strategies, Vol. 9, No. 18 (October 2013), pp. 1-33.
    Tucker, Joshua, “Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and the Post-Communist Colored Revolutions”, Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 5 (2007), pp. 535-551.
    Tudoroiu, Theodor, “Rose, Orange, and Tulip: The Failed post-Soviet revolutions”, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 40 (2007), pp. 315-342.
    Vakaluyck, Artem, “The TV Markets in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova”, Prensario International (2014), pp. 44-46.
    Way, Lucan, “The Real Causes of the Color Revolutions”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 19, No. 3 (July 2008), pp. 55-56.
    Welt, Cory, “Georgia’s Rose Revolution: from Regime Weakness to Regime Collapse”, Waves and Troughs of Post Communist Transitions workshop (December 2006), pp. 1-49.
    Wheatley, Jonathan and Zürcher, Christoph, “On the Orign and Consolidation of Hybrid Regimes: The State of Democracy in the Caucasus”, Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Vol. 4 (2008), pp. 1-31.
    Wolfsfeld, Gadi, Segev, Elad, and Sheafer, Tamir, “Social Media and the Arab Spring: Politics Comes First”, The International Journal of Press/Politics, Vol. 18, No. 2 (2013), pp. 115-137.
    York, Steve, Merriman, Hardy, Zimmerman, Miriam, and Boaz, Cynthia, “Orange Revolution Study Guide”, York Zimmerman Inc. (2010).

    三、機構報告
    Dubai School of Government`s Governance and Innovation Program, “Arab Social Media Report”, Vol. 2, No. 1 (July 2012).
    IREX, “Tunisia’s Media Sustainability Index 2009”, 2010.　
    　　“Egypt’s Media Sustainability Index 2009”, 2010.
    IRI, “Georgian National Voter Study”, May 2003.
    　　“Georgian National Study February 21 - March 3”, 2009.
    　　“2011 June 5 Survey of Egyptian Public Opinion, April 14-27”, 2011.
    　　“2014 April 5 Public Opinion Survey of Ukraine”, 2014.
    OSCE/ODIHR, “Georgia Extraordinary Presidential Election”, 28 February 2004.
    　　 “Ukraine Extraordinary Presidential Election”, 28 February 2004.
    　　 “International Election Observation Mission, Presidential Election – Ukraine 31 October 2004”, 1 November 2004.
    Transparency International Georgia, “Television in Georgia – Ownership, Control and Regulation”, 20 November 2009.

    四、網路資料
    BBC：<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/>
    “Tunisia suicide protester Mohammed Bouazizi dies”, BBC, <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12120228>
    CNN：< http://edition.cnn.com/>
    “Thousands protest in Egypt”, CNN, <http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/01/25/egypt.protests/>
    Foreign Policy：< http://foreignpolicy.com/>
    “Tunisia and the New Arab Media Space”, Foreign Policy, <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/15/tunisia_and_the_new_arab_media_space?wp_login_redirect=0>
    Freedom House：<http://www.freedomhouse.org/>
    Georgian Opinion Research Business International：<http://www.wingia.com/en/countries/Georgia/>
    “Old and New Media”, Georgian Opinion Research Business International <http://www.gorbi.com/News/tabid/69/EntryId/85/Old-and-New-Media.aspx>
    International Research & Exchanges Board：< http://www.irex.org/>
    Los Angeles Times：< http://www.latimes.com/>
    “Tunisia protesters use Facebook, Twitter and YouTube to help organize and report”, Los Angeles Times, <http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2011/01/tunisia-students-using-facebook-and-twitter-to-organize.html>
    Reporters Without Borders：<http://en.rsf.org/>
    Television Industry Committee：<http://tampanel.com.ua/en/rubrics/canals>
    Ted Nguyen’s Blog：< http://www.tednguyenusa.com/category/home/ >
    “Tunisia’s Twitter Revolution”, <http://www.tednguyenusa.com/tunisias-twitter-revolution/>
    Thestar.com：< http://www.thestar.com/ >
    “Suicide protest helped topple Tunisian regime”, thestar.com, <http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/922279--suicide-protest-helped-topple-tunisian-regime>
    World Bank：< http://www.worldbank.org/>

    叁、俄文資料
    一、專書
    Васильев, Алексей, и Петров, Николай, Рецепты Арабской Весны: Русская Версия, Москва, алгоритм, 2012.
    Почепцов, Георгий, “Гражданское самбо:как противостоять «цветам риволюциям» ”, Москва, издательства «Еврора», 2005.

    二、期刊、論文
    Гельман, Владимир Я., ”Уроки Украинского”, Полис. Политические исследования, № 1 (Февраль 2005), с. 36-49.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    俄羅斯研究所
    99263006
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