English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113485/144472 (79%)
Visitors : 51389997      Online Users : 688
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/70137


    Title: 台北市選民的分裂投票行爲：一九九八年市長選舉分析
    Other Titles: Ticket Splitting: The 1998 Taipei City Mayoral Election
    Authors: 許勝懋
    Hsu, Sheng-Mao
    Contributors: 政治系
    Keywords: 分裂投票;台北市選舉;政黨解組;省籍;分立制衡觀念;策略投票
    split ticket voting;Taipei City elections;party dealignment;ethnic background;checks and balances;strategic voting
    Date: 2001.05
    Issue Date: 2014-09-25 10:44:05 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 選民的投票意向一直是政治學界注意的焦點，但是在秘密投票的限制下，能得知「個別」選民的投票態度與決定，唯有依靠民意調查，不過所得之答案的眞實性則令人懷疑。對選舉唯一能確定的是，選舉後選民「集體」決定後的結果，但若是希望藉由得票結果資料作為個人投票態度的推論，恐怕會有「區位謬誤」(ecologicalfallacy)的風險。本文以八十七年台北市選舉各投票所之得票記錄分析選民對各政黨市長和市議員候選人分裂投票的現象，嘗試運用King的EI模型，跨層次推論分析選民在三黨市議員候選人與三黨市長候選人之間的抉擇，並初探性利用統計方法降低區位謬誤的風險。結果發現，與外界預期新黨市議員支持者大多採取分裂投票，投票支持國民黨市長候選人馬英九，其分裂投票率高達98.29％。另外，國民黨市議員支持者亦有分裂投票的情形，主要分裂投票對象為民進黨市長候選人陳水扁，分裂投票率為48.28％。
    Voting tendencies has been the focus of political field.Due to thelimitations of the secretive voting system,the only way to learn each individual`svoting preferences is to take polls.However,the reliability ofthe poll results is questionable.One thing that we can be sure of is thatthe voting results reflect every citizen`s decision.It would be a risk of ecologicalfallacy if one hypothesizes the voting attitude based on the votingresult.Based on the voting result in the Taipei election of 1998,first ofall,this thesis gives an analysis of the phenomenon of split-ticket votingbetween political parties in City Mayor and City congress.ApplyingKing`s EI model analyzes how citizens chose their desired candidates amongthe three political parties.It also experimentally applies the statisticsmethods to lower the risk of ecological fallacy.So it turns out that asexpected,the supporters of the New Party adapt split-ticket voting byvoting KMT`s candidate Mao Ying-jo.The rate of split-ticket votingreaches 98.29%.In addition,split-ticket voting also happens to the supportersof KMT`s congress.The voters in split-ticket voting vote forDPP`s City Mayor candidate Chen Shuei-Bien.The split-ticket votingrate registers 48.28%.
    Relation: 選舉研究 , 8 (1) , 117-158
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[選舉研究 TSSCI] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    117-158.pdf1962KbAdobe PDF2890View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback