政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/69512
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113318/144297 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51082663      線上人數 : 945
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/69512


    題名: 知人知面不知心－購屋者房價預期之分析
    其他題名: Know the Face of the Person but Not Their Heart: An Analysis of Consumer`s House Price Expectations
    作者: 張金鶚
     Chang,Chin-oh
    貢獻者: 地政系
    關鍵詞: 房價預期;預期異質性;多項羅吉特模型
    House price expectation;Heterogeneity of expectation;Multinomial logit model
    日期: 2012.02
    上傳時間: 2014-09-01 17:48:21 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 住宅產品異質性高，且具有投資與消費雙重特性，過去研究多從總體面來探討房價預期假說，並已提出許多實證結果驗證，但是甚少從個體觀點來探究消費者對於房價預期的看法。因此，本文從個體面探討房地產市場環境、購屋者身分與心理行為以及其購屋偏好等因素對房價預期的影響，以及在不同景氣狀況之下購屋者對房價預期之差異。本文利用「台灣地區住宅需求動向調查」2007～2008年的資料，以購屋者對房價預期為類別變數，並使用多項羅吉特模型估計各影響因素對房價預期的影響程度。實證結果顯示購屋者身分、行為、目的與認知使得對房價預期產生差異，支持消費者對房價預期差異之假說。而女性購屋者對房價波動較敏感且對房價較樂觀，因此對房價看漲機率較男性高。此外，不同房地產景氣階段將導致購屋目的改變，在房地產景氣時購屋投資比例增加，購屋者房價預期差異較不景氣時各項差異均呈現增大趨勢。
    Housing products are highly heterogeneous and reflect both investment and consumption behaviors. Previous studies have obtained outcomes with respect to the analysis of real estate price expectations from a macro perspective, but few studies have examined this area from a micro perspective. This study thus adopted a micro perspective to analyze the impacts of real estate market conditions, and home purchaser socio-economic characteristics and preferences on house price expectations. The data were collected from the 2007-2008 Housing Demand Survey, and a multinomial logit model was employed to estimate the influences of various factors on the multiple choice type dependent variable of house price expectations. The study results show that home purchaser socio-economic characteristics, purchasing behavior, purpose and recognition significantly influence different house price expectations. The results support our hypothesis regarding the variation of consumer house price expectations. Female home purchasers are more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to be optimistic regarding housing prices. Additionally, home purchaser price expectations are more likely to differ, especially in boom markets.
    關聯: 都市與計劃, 39(4), 349-373
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[地政學系] 期刊論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    4937.pdf2731KbAdobe PDF21006檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋