| Abstract: | 住宅市場的研究中,交易量一直是被忽略的市場指標。雖然價格與交易量在經濟理論中是同時決定的,但因為住宅市場的投資特性,使得住宅市場研究不應局限在價格領域,而應共同分析交易量與價格才能完整描述市場狀況。以台灣地區的住宅市場而言,近年來在80%住宅自有率下仍出現價格高漲現象,顯示住宅的投資行為已對市場產生重要的影響。另外,在股票市場的研究中發現,交易量波動具有領先價格波動的情形,而同樣具部分投資財特性的住宅市場,其價量之間是否具有相似情況,是本研究探討的重點之一。< 關於前述課題的分析,本研究先分析住宅市場的特性,探討住宅價格與交易量在預期住宅市場景氣下的波動情形;其次經由台北市民國60年至82年的價量資料進行檢定分析。初步分析結果發現,住宅市場具有交易量波動領先價格波動的情況,而價格與交易量的長期波動趨勢是呈現逆時針旋轉的情況。< 另外,台灣的住宅市場主要是由成屋市場與預售屋市場所構成,而成屋市場是由居住需求與居住空間供給所構成,而預售市場的研究多認為預售屋類似期貨或遠期交易,然而,預售屋市場的價格與供給量(流量),與成屋市場的價格與供給量(存量)之間的關係,在分屬兩種市場特性之下,是否仍如住宅存量流量模型所描述,或者另有其他關連性。< 本文以Fisher(1990)以及DiPasquale & wheaton(1992)的研究為基礎,深入探討國內特有的成屋市場與預售屋市場之相互影響關係,其次則修改DiPasquale與wheaton(1994)的模型,建立分析成屋與預售屋價格與供給量的相互影響情況,以及對均衡值調整速率的實證模式,並以台北市民國63年至82年的資料進行實證,以瞭解台北市成屋市場與預售屋市場的情形。<
Owing to the consumption-investment dual characteristic of housing in Taiwan, its price has risen under a condition of 80% owned-occupied rate in recent years. Some stock market studies indicate that the fluctuation of transaction volume causes the price to fluctuate. We analyze the relationship between price and volume in the housing market, and find a counter-clock fluctuation pattern of housing price and volume. An empirical test implied that, in the long run, the fluctuation of transaction volume causes the price to fluctuate in housing market.< In Taiwan, housing market divides two sub-markets---existing and pre-sales. Existing market is similar as spot market, and pre-sales market is like futures or forwards market (Chang & Ward, 1993). Restated, the goods of pre-sales housing market are the housing units under construction. We modify the stock-flow model of Fisher (1992) and DiPasquale & Wheaton (1992, 1994) to analyze the price-volume relationship between existing housing market and pre-sales housing market.< By the empirical test of Taiwan`s housing market, the consequences imply that pre-sales market price adjustment rate to the long-run equilibrium price is rapid than the price adjustment rate in existing housing market. In other words, the pre-sales system can improve the market efficiency. The result of supply adjustment rate is insignificant, which implying that housing market is basically influenced by price not by volume in Taiwan.< |
