| Abstract: | 觀察台灣在60年代以後的空間結構變遷,雖大體上仍脫離不了 行政上強制劃分 的行政空間發展模式,但市場上所謂Smith`s 看不見的手 之自由經濟力量仍對一般財貨市場之空間的發展造成莫大的影響;在錯縱複雜的房地產業活動交互影響下,住宅市場之空間結構是否也如其他一般財貨市場展現了不同的風貌,也是否因住宅特質上的差異而形成了一個範圍一個範圍的區域發展。< 區域形成國家的空間次系統,區域內與區域間的成長,彼此之間存在著某種程度的相依性,而住宅價格在空間上之分布,一直被視為人類活動與區位選擇的最佳參考指標;以往在探討住宅價格的分析上,多採用總體層面(全國層次)住宅價格資料,以其全國層次結果代表地區性住宅次市場變化,也就是說總體指標常忽略了住宅市場的次區域特性;其結果對於區域性住宅市場分析可能因空間之異質性或相依性而有偏差。因此,本研究擬釐清住宅價格所形成之住宅市場在空間上所展現的各種情形,如波及效果(Spread effect)、集中效果(concentrated effect)、與跳動(jump)的效果,其長期穩定均衡的調整過程是否如同因果累積學派所言,漫長而困難?而區域間互動的 程度 又是如何?這些都是我們所關心的課題。< 本研究擬跳脫以往僅考量 時間向度 來衡量空間發展的變遷之模式,卻將 空間維度 亦視為變數。對於區域空間關係,本研究擬利用 時空模式 不僅探討時間數列的關係,並觀察住宅市場空間所產生的空間異質性與空間相依性。限於資料,在此主要以區域住宅價格、現住人口及可支用所得的變動來觀察其在空間分派上是否有跳動(Jump)的展現,利用以共積檢定為主之計量經濟模式來探討住宅市場空間分派的長期趨勢,再利用修正誤差模式(ECM)檢定短期的不均衡並求取短期區域間的均衡調整率。並以衝擊反應函數(Impulse Responses Function)分析區域間的發展是否具有波及效果?以及探討影響區域價格形成差異的因子,釐清各區域間的空間替代關係。< 因此本研究的動機說明如下: (一)台灣區域性住宅市場是否存在穩定的長期均衡關係? (二)區域間是否存在住宅市場區隔關係,其情況如何? (三)台灣區域性房價波及效果存在嗎?意即某一地區之房價變動如何影響其他地區? (四)住宅市場空間性差異的主要原因為何?影響區域發展差異之因素以及調整的速率為何?各區域間存在著何種的時空關係?<
The movement of housing prices is crucial issue in the housing market whatever in macro or micro level. The previous research were focus in econometric model analysis of housing prices in aggregation level, consequently it contributed a little help to application or dynamic regional housing prices analysis. Beside, the change of regional housing cost to the labor market is especially significant.< This paper observes the long-run equilibrium relationship of the regional dynamic housing markets by housing price and starts of Taiwan. The major objective of this paper is by means of the results of the observation to analyze the following issues: (1) Are there segmentation of housing prices within regions of Taiwan, especially between north and south territory? (2) Is there existence of "ripple effect" in the regional housing prices in Taiwan? That is how the housing prices variation in certain area affecting the housing prices of other area. (3) Is there existence of stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the regional housing prices? (4) What causal effect of housing market movement in segment region? Is there existence the spatial Substitute between regional housing markets?< Being restricted by the difficulty of data collection; this paper is based on annually basic housing price index to check the prices relationship between regions. Our analysis facilitated statistical analysis to view the present status of regional housing prices, and applied new econometric testing technology for analysis. We also look into the diffusion effect of housing prices movement of Taipei area which are interested by majority.< |
