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    题名: 國際水資源競合之研究
    An Analysis of International Water Conflict and Cooperation
    作者: 郭昕光
    贡献者: 李明
    郭昕光
    关键词: 水資源
    水資源衝突
    水資源合作
    水資源互動
    日期: 2013
    上传时间: 2014-08-12 14:07:40 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 水是一切生命和人類活動的基礎，水的重要性凌駕於其他所有資源。現今地球上雖有13.8億立方公尺的水，但其中97%以上皆是海水，淡水尚不及3%。而在淡水組成中，絕大多數又屬不便取用的冰川，約占70%。雖然全世界的水量，長久以來並無明顯變化，但在人口數量不斷成長，加以都市化與工業化的蓬勃發展下，全球「年人均逕流量」( yearly world run-off per capita ) 已經從1800年的40,000立方公尺，降至1995年的6,840立方公尺，預估2025年時更只有4,692立方公尺。
    水資源的短缺不僅導致糧作減產，增加貧窮人口，擴大疾病傳染，甚至迫使人們不得不離鄉背井，另謀生路。環境安全研究者Thomas F. Homer-Dixon直指，水資源的短缺會破壞國家的執政能力，是造成國家內部社會動盪，乃至國際衝突的重要因素。水不僅是具有重要經濟價值的商品，水更是所有生命賴以延續的必需品。若稱水是生命之泉，那麼掌握水資源也就是一種權力(power)的象徵。對於某些國家或民族而言，水甚至還具有一定情感和文化上的意義。水資源短缺帶給國際社會的衝擊，究竟只是危言聳聽的誤導，還是不斷迫近的安全危機，國家又如何能夠化險為夷？深入瞭解國際水資源的互動，實屬必要。
    前世界銀行副總裁薩拉傑丁(Ismail Serageldin)1995年的預言，「本世紀的戰爭是因石油而起，下個世紀的戰爭將是為水而戰」，這句話不僅已成為近20年來最重要的名言之一，也和其他類似的警語，成為了水資源研究的主流思想。不過水資源戰爭的推論缺乏實證支持。Aaron Wolf帶領的美國奧瑞岡州立大學研究團隊發現，儘管國際河川流域潛藏著紛爭的可能，但實際上國家之間因水資源而引發激烈衝突的案例，卻遠少於合作的案例。從1948到1999年間，全世界只有37件與水相關的激烈暴力衝突。相對的同一時期，則有157件條約或在協商之中或已完成簽署。對於水戰爭的預測，在Arron Wolf等人看來，只是來自譁眾取寵的媒體和一些沒有經過嚴格審查的論文罷了。不過Arron Wolf等人也發現，在對立的案例中，90%都是與水量及其基礎建設工程有關，且絕大部分嚴重的武裝衝突，都和這兩項因素息息相關。在破除水資源戰爭的迷思之前，實有必要對於國際水資源的互動關係進行通盤的檢視。
    儘管過去已有部分學者，以統計分析的方法，從事相關議題的量化研究。不過至今尚無針對全體國際河川共有國家，水資源互動之綜合性比較分析。在力求符合1、水資源的衝突與合作研究並重；2、研究範圍涵蓋所有國際河川流經國家；3、兼顧水資源本身與非水資源因素之討論等三項條件下，本論文收集1948年至2007年間，263條國際河川之國家配對相關資料。透過檢視每一國家配對水資源量的各項統計數據，不同政治、經濟、軍事、人口等國家特質，以及國家配對長期互動之紀錄，本研究依序從水資源互動的變異、衝突與合作的發生，以及因素組合解釋模型之建立等三個層次，全面探討影響水資源競合的內涵。
    經過一系列相關統計分析，本論文成功建立了水資源互動的最佳因素組合解釋模型，證實水資源在需求面及結構面上所發生的短缺，的確會增加水資源衝突的風險。然而國家特質本身，特別是綜合國力因素，對於國際水資源互動的發生與形式，更有直接且明顯的影響。值得注意的是，除了可以具體量化的變數外，國際政治關係、政府議價能力，以及水權觀念的轉變等，對於水資源互動，也有不容忽視的作用。
    在水資源戰爭論與合作說的爭辯中，本論文連結了看似對立的兩種現象於同一研究之中，希望在各方的疑慮與樂觀中，對國際關係中水資源議題的了解，能夠有所助益，並期待引領來自學界更多的關注。
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