政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/67931

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/67931

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政大典藏 > College of International Affairs > Department of Diplomacy > Theses > Item 140.119/67931

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/67931

Title:	中國水資源決策過程中科學所扮演的角色: 以湄公河上游水利資源發展為例 The Role of Science in Hydropower Development Decision- Making in China: The Case of the Upper Mekong Dam Cascade
Authors:	馬天林 Michael Joseph Madden
Contributors:	李河清 Lee, Ho Ching 馬天林 Michael Joseph Madden
Keywords:	多元流程知識社群水資源決策科學中國雲南湄公河 Upper Mekong China hydropower development multiple streams Kingdon Haas epistemic communities science
Date:	2013
Issue Date:	2014-07-29 16:17:25 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	中國雲南是湄公河（瀾滄江）的水源地，且流經下游五個國家。目前中國已經在上游建設了五座大型的水壩，並有兩座正在籌備中。決策者們根據部分關於下游周邊明確影響的科學辯論，表示大壩對下游環境所產生的影響，並因中國政治背景的促使下，添加了Mertha的"零碎化的威權體制"。本研究使用Kingdon的多元流程以及Haas的知識社群理論為架構，置入對中國水力發電的科學研究中。透過科學文獻的全面審查，本研究發現決策者並沒有將所有的研究範圍納入考量，使得最重要的決策者（水電公司及政府）只使用部分科學研究結果描述大壩對下游的影響極小。而表示大壩下游將會產生極大負面影響的科學研究學者們和行為者，在決策過程中皆被排除。此情況導致決策者使用負面下游影響科學的邊緣化。 Yunnan, China is home to the headwaters of the Mekong (Lancang) River, which flows through five countries. China has completed five large dams in a cascade, and is preparing two more. Decision-makers have framed the downstream environmental effects of this cascade based on specific side of the scientific debate surrounding the cascade’s impacts, using one set of scientific research over another. Using Mertha’s additions to the “fragmented authoritarianism” framework for political context, this research uses Kingdon’s policy stream and Haas’s epistemic communities framework to contextualize science in China’s hydropower development. Thoroughly considering the scientific literature, this study finds that decision-makers have not considered the full scope of research, and concludes that primary decision-makers (hydropower companies and government actors) characterized the effects of the cascade as limited and possible to mitigate by excluding actors who emphasized evidence of negative downstream effects from the process. Though these hydropower projects were “recalibrated” to have fewer environmental effects in the early 2000s, and though stakeholders acknowledged negative ecological effects and purported to mitigate and minimize these effects in hydropower development when such development again became a priority for China in this decade, this study finds that decision-makers’ understanding of effects as possible to mitigate is based on scientific research that emphasizes the limits to negative effects, rather than the predicted consequences a number of other studies have found. This has led to the marginalization of negative downstream impact science among decision-makers.
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