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    題名: 攻守理論的實證檢驗：案例比較研究1914~1973
    其他題名: Empirical Testing of the Offense-Defense Theory: A Comparative Study 1914-1973
    作者: 楊仕樂
    Yang, Shih-Yueh
    貢獻者: 外交系
    關鍵詞: 國際政治理論;外交政策理論;攻守理論;攻守平衡
    Theory of International Politics;Theory of Foreign Policy;Offense-Defense Theory;Offense-Defense Balance
    日期: 2007.09
    上傳時間: 2014-07-28 11:16:17 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文的研究目的是檢驗「科技」與「地理」因素對於「攻守平衡」變異的影響。本文首先將簡述「攻守理論」中解釋「攻守平衡」變異的主要因果邏輯，說明科技與地理因素如何影響攻守平衡，從此提出推論並介紹各項概念的定義與衡量指標，隨後進行控制比較的實證檢驗。在實證檢驗中，本文將先分別討論選定案例間，其科技的變化以及地理環境的差異，並依此推論攻守平衡狀態的變動，隨後再以兩次大戰與第三、第四次中東戰爭中，所選定案例的作戰記錄為衡量攻守平衡的依據進行比對，藉此檢驗科技與地理因素對攻守平衡變異的解釋力。本文發現，案例的比較研究大致上均支持本文的推論，科技與地理因素對攻守平衡的變異，是具有一定的解釋力。
    The objective of this article is to investigate the impacts of "technology" and "geography" on the variance of "offense-defense balance." This article starts by summarizing the main causal logic: how "technology" and "geography" affect the "Offense-defense Balance." It then offers an operational definition and measuring parameter for each of these concepts and thereafter constructs the causal hypotheses between "technology," "geography," and "offense-defense balance." In total 16 cases have been selected for analysis within three following periods: the First World War (1914-1918), the Second World War (1939-1945), and the Six Day War/Yom Kippur War (1967-1973). In conclusion, a controlled comparison study is conducted to test the hypotheses. This results in rather positive results being found in support of the hypotheses; in other words showing that military technology and geography do indeed exert considerable explanatory power on the variance of "offense-defense balance."
    關聯: 政治科學論叢, 33, 117-150
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[外交學系] 期刊論文

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