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| Title: | 總體商業訊息與台灣股票報酬之關係：以Fama-MacBeth兩階段方法實證
News Related to Macroeconomics and Taiwan Stock Market Return: Using two-step Fama-MacBeth Procedure |
| Authors: | 王崇育
Wang, Chung Yu |
| Contributors: | 饒秀華
蕭明福
Rau, Hsiu Hua
Shaw, Ming Fu
王崇育
Wang, Chung Yu |
| Keywords: | Fama-French三因子模型
向量自我回歸模型
期限利差
違約利差
Fama-French three-factor model
VAR model
term spread
default spread |
| Date: | 2013 |
| Issue Date: | 2014-07-07 11:09:55 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文利用向量自我迴歸模型所得出來的殘差值來模擬未預期到的總體經濟訊息，以期限利差和一個月定存利率來捕捉殖利率曲線，以違約利差和股利收益率來描繪資產報酬的條件機率分布，本文實證未預期到的期限利差和未預期到的違約風險與淨值市價比因子和市值規模因子包含相同的訊息，因此後續檢驗這些能夠捕捉未來投資機會的總體經濟訊息比起Fama-French三因子模型是否對台灣股票橫斷面的平均報酬更具有解釋能力。
實證方法採用Fama-MacBeth(1973)兩階段迴歸方法，Fama-French三因子模型實證結果顯示台灣股票市場存在著負向的淨值市價比效果，但卻不存在著規模效果，這與國外一些學者研究1980年代之後規模效果逐漸消失的結論相同。在實證未預期到的總體經濟訊息模型時，由於被解釋變數為股票超額報酬率，因此常數項應該為不顯著的關係，但此假設強烈的被未預期到的總體經濟訊息模型拒絕，代表此模型可能遺漏了重要的解釋變數。因此，Fama-French 三因子模型對台灣股票橫斷面平均報酬率的解釋能力比未預期到的總體經濟訊息模型更佳。
The Fama and French factors HML and SMB are correlated with innovations in variables that describe investment opportunities. I find that shocks to term spread and shocks to default spread have the same information with the Fama and French factors HML and SMB. This paper investigates whether a model that includes shocks to the aggregate dividend yield and term spread, default spread, and one-month deposit interest rate can explain the cross section of average return on Taiwan stock market as well as the Fama and French can.
Using the Fama-MacBeth (1973) two steps cross-sectional regressions, I find there exists the negative book-to-market effect on Taiwan stock market, but the size effect disappears. Since the dependent variables in the regression is excess returns, the intercept of the cross-sectional regression should be zero. This hypothesis is strongly rejected in the case of the model includes shocks to the Macroeconomics variables and the market portfolio. It means this model omits some important variables, so the Fama and French three-factor model can explain the cross section of average returns better. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
101258007
102 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1012580072 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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