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    Title: 總統黨的形成與裂解:韓國民主化後進步政黨的分合
    The Rise and Fall of Presidentialized Parties: Why Progressive Parties Split and Merged in South Korea after Democratization?
    Authors: 曲元寧
    Chu, Yuan Ning
    Contributors: 黃長玲
    楊婉瑩

    Huang, Chang Ling
    Yang, Wan Ying

    曲元寧
    Chu, Yuan Ning
    Keywords: 韓國
    政黨
    選舉
    總統黨
    政黨重組
    South Korea
    Political Parties
    Elections
    Presidentialized Parties
    Splits and Mergers of Parties
    Date: 2013
    Issue Date: 2014-04-01 11:22:38 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   韓國政黨自1980年代末期民主化以來,歷經了多次的政黨變動,包括更換黨名、合併他黨,甚至是甘願被他黨合併而解散,且就連執政黨也不斷發生類似的情形。在既有的各種解釋之中,部分學者認為,韓國執政黨的變動,與「總統黨」的現象相關。韓國政黨主要為總統個人服務,「總統黨」通常是在總統的主導之下而建立,總統建立總統黨的過程,導致執政黨不斷變動。
      與既有研究不同,本研究具體化「總統黨」的概念。在韓國的政治制度之下,總統無法掌握民意、無法掌握國會時,在總統權力受限的情況下,執政黨較可能會發生組織上的變動;反之,若總統民調滿意度高、掌握國會程度高時,總統權力較大,執政黨因而較為穩定。依此,可以解釋為什麼韓國進步政黨與保守政黨執政期間,政黨變動的情形有所差異。透過大量的實證研究,本論文發現,進步政黨執政時,即金大中、盧武鉉任內,總統民調滿意度持續低迷,且同黨議員的國會席次,比保守政黨執政時來得更少,可能因而發生較劇烈的政黨變動。最後,本研究亦從保守政黨的情形,推估該理論的適用範圍,並採用李明博任內的政黨變動情形,作為比較。在李明博民調滿意度高、同黨國會席次過半時,執政黨維持穩定,但在民調滑落時,執政黨便發生變動,符合本研究的論證,推測韓國執政黨的變動,確實與總統個人的權力大小相關。
    Ever since the country’s democratization in the late 1980s, political parties in South Korea have been repeatedly splitting and merging with one another. While ruling parties in general tend to be more stable under the presidential system, in South Korea, they are prone to dramatic organizational changes. Existing literature argues that regional cleavages, presidential leadership and electoral institutions have contributed to these party reorganizations. However, it fails to explain why progressive parties have been less stable than conservative parties when in government.
    This study argues that the rise and fall of presidential power can lead to splits and mergers in the ruling parties in South Korea. Specifically, when a president is facing a divided government and suffering from low public support, the ruling party is likely to be unstable. To support my claim, I begin with two case studies of the ruling party’s splitting and merging under Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun’s progressive governments from 1998-2008. I also compare the situations of Kim and Roh’s parties with those of the conservative ruling party led by Lee Myung-bak from 2008-2012. I conclude that progressive parties have been less stable because their presidents have faced divided government more frequently and have gained less presidential approval. The organizational stability of a ruling party in South Korea is highly relevant with the president’s power in terms of popularity and legislative seats.
    Reference: 一、中文文獻
    專書
    森山茂德,譯者吳明上,韓國現代政治(台北市:五南,2005)
    郑继永,韩国政党体系(北京:社会科学文献出版社,2008)
    施正鋒編,瞭解當代韓國民主政治(台北市:台灣國際研究學會,2011)
    專書篇章
    石忠山,「當代韓國政黨政治之發展與挑戰」,載於施正鋒編,瞭解當代韓國民主政治(台北市:台灣國際研究學會,2011),頁117-160
    郭秋慶,「韓國民主轉型的形成與延生的問題」,載於施正鋒編,瞭解當代韓國民主政治(台北市:台灣國際研究學會,2011),頁57-90
    黃長玲,「分裂社會下的體制發展與爭議:台灣與南韓民主化經驗的比較」,載於彭慧鸞編,蕃薯與泡菜:亞洲雙龍台韓經驗比較(台北市:財團法人亞太文化學術交流基金會,2008),頁41-64
    期刊論文
    林繼文,「政府體制、選舉制度與政黨體系:一個配套論的分析」,選舉研究,第13卷第2期(2006),頁01-35。
    吳重禮,「美國『分立性政府』與『一致性政府』體制運作之比較與評析」,政治科學論叢,第9期(1998),頁61-90。
    吳重禮,黃紀,張壹智,「台灣地區“分立政府”與“一致政府”之研究:以1986年至2001年地方府會關係為例」,人文及社會科學集刊,第15卷第1期(2003),頁145-184。
    蔡榮祥,陳宏銘,「選舉時程對政府組成型態的牽引力:半總統制經驗之探討」,東吳政治學報,第26卷第2期(2008),頁117-180。
    蔡榮祥,陳宏銘,「總統國會制的一致政府與憲政運作:以馬英九總統第一任任期為例」,東吳政治學報,第30卷第4期(2012),頁121-176。

    二、英文文獻
    專書
    Campbell, James E., The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1997).
    Cox, G. W., Kernell, S., The Politics of Divided Government (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991).
    Duverger M., Political Parties, Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State (Methuen: Wiley, 1954).
    Key, V. O., Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups (Binghamton, NY: Thomas Y. Crowell Company, 1964)
    Mayhew, D. R., Divided We Govern: Party Control, Lawmaking and Investigations, 1946-1990 (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1991).
    Oh, J. K., Korean Politics: the Quest for Democratization and Economic Development (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1999)
    Samuels, D. J. & Shugart, M. S., Presidents, Parties, and Prime Ministers: How the Separation of Powers Affects Party Organization and Behavior (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2010)
    Shugart, M. S. & Carey, J. M., Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992)

    期刊論文
    Binder, Sarah A., “The Dynamics of Legislative Gridlock”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 93, No. 3 (Sep., 1999), pp. 519-533
    Bowling, Cynthia J., Ferguson, Margaret R., “Divided Government, Interest Representation, and Policy Differences: Competing Explanations of Gridlock in the Fifty States”, The Journal of Politics, Vol. 63, No. 1 (Feb., 2001), pp. 182-206
    Campbell, J. E., “Explaining Presidential Losses in Midterm Congressional Elections”, The Journal of Politics, Vol.47, No.4 (1985), pp. 1140-1157.
    Cohen, Jeffrey E., Krassa, Michael A., Hamman, John A., “The Impact of Presidential Campaigning on Midterm US Senate Elections”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 85, No. 1 (Mar., 1991), pp. 165-178
    Coleman, John J., “Unified Government, Divided Government, and Party Responsiveness”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 93, No. 4 (Dec., 1999), pp. 821-835
    Edward III, G. C., Barrett, A., & Peake, J., “The Legislative Impact of Divided Government”, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 41, No.2 (1997), pp. 545-563.
    Elman, Colin, “Explanatory Typologies in Qualitative Studies of International Politics”, International Organization, Vol. 59, No. 2 (Spring, 2005), pp. 293-326
    Jones, M. P., “Presidential Election Laws and Multipartism in Latin America”, Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 47, No. 1 (1994), pp. 41-57
    Kelly, Sean Q., “Divided We Govern? A Reassessment”, Polity, Vol. 25, No. 3 (Spring, 1993), pp. 475-484
    Kernell, S., “Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting: An Alternative Explanation of the Midterm Congressional Decline of the President`s Party”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 71, No.1 (1977), pp. 44-66
    Mayhew, D. R., “Divided Party Control: Does It Make a Difference?” PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.24, No.4 (1991), pp. 637-640.
    Park, Jin, “Political Change in South Korea: The Challenge of the Conservative Alliance”, Asian Survey, Vol. 30, No. 12 (Dec., 1990), pp. 1154-1168
    Park, K., “Party Mergers and Splits in New Democracies: The Case of South Korea (1987–2007)”, Government & Opposition, Vol.45, No.4 (2010), pp. 531-552.
    Piereson, J. E., “Presidential Popularity and Midterm Voting at Different Electoral Levels”, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 19, No.4 (1975), pp. 683-694
    Saeki, Manabu, “Gridlock in the Government of the United States: Influence of Divided Government and Veto Players”, British Journal of Political Science, Vol.39, No.3 (2009), pp 587 - 607
    Samuels, D. J., “Presidentialized parties”, Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 35, No. 4 (2002), pp. 461-483.
    Shugart, M. S., “The electoral cycle and institutional sources of divided presidential government”, American Political Science Review, Vol. 89, No. 2 (1995), pp. 327-343.
    Sundquist, J. L., “Needed: A Political Theory for the New Era of Coalition Government in the United States”, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.103, No.4 (1988), pp. 613-635.
    Tufte, E. R., “Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 69, No.3 (1975), pp. 812-826.
    三、韓文文獻
    專書
    김태랑, 대한민국국회 60년사 (서울특별시:국회사무처, 2008)
    손호철, 현대 한국 정치: 이론, 역사, 현실, 1945-2011 (이매진, 2011)
    期刊論文
    강원택, “3당 합당과 한국 정당 정치”, 한국정당학회보, Vol. 11, No. 1 (2012), pp. 171-193.
    곽진영, “한국 정당의 이합집산과 정당체계의 불안정성”, 한국정당학회보, Vol. 8, No. 1 (2009), pp. 115-146.
    박경미, “정당 이합집산의 조건: 열린우리당의 변화(2003-2007)”, 한국과국제정치(KWP), Vol. 24, No. 3 (2008), pp. 29-55.
    이정진, “재편성 개념으로 분석한 한국 정당체계의 변화”, 韓國政治外交史論叢, Vol. 28, No. 2 (2007), pp. 109-138.
    이준한, “한국의 선거주기와 대통령 소속정당의 선거이득”, 한국정당학회보, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2008), pp. 137-157
    정진민, “생산적 국회운영을 위한 대통령-국회 관계와 정당”, 한국정당학회보, Vol. 7, No. 1 (2008), pp. 77-102.
    官方資料
    중앙선거관리위원회a, 大韓民國政黨史 第四輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)
    중앙선거관리위원회b, 大韓民國政黨史 第五輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)
    중앙선거관리위원회c, 大韓民國選舉史 第四輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)
    중앙선거관리위원회d, 大韓民國選舉史 第五輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)
    중앙선거관리위원회e, 大韓民國選舉史 第六輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)
    중앙선거관리위원회, 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2004년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2005)
    , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2005년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2006)
    , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2006년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2007)
    , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2007년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2008)
    중앙선거관리위원회f, 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2008년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2009)
    , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2009년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2010)
    , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2010년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2011)
    , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고. 2011년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2012)
    , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고. 2012년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2013)

    網路資料與新聞報導
    大韓民國國會六十年史 대한민국국회60년사(김태랑),http://www.assembly.go.kr/renew10/asm/ifn/file_down.jsp?M_idx=1_02&SAVEFILENAME=assembly60.pdf&FILENAME=%B4%EB%C7%D1%B9%CE%B1%B9%B1%B9%C8%B8%2060%B3%E2%BB%E7.pdf
    朝鮮日報檔案庫 조선일보 아카이브,http://srchdb1.chosun.com/pdf/i_archive/
    韓國中央選舉委員會 選舉統計系統 중앙선거관리위원회 선거통계시스템, http://info.nec.go.kr/
    韓國法律知識資訊系統 법률지식정보시스템,http://likms.assembly.go.kr/law/jsp/law/Main.jsp
    韓國國會法 국회법,http://likms.assembly.go.kr/law/jsp/law/Law.jsp?WORK_TYPE=LAW_BON&SRCH_IN_RESULT=false&LAW_SRCH_TYPE=LAW_NM&SUB_NM=%B1%B9%C8%B8%B9%FD&BEF_SUB_NM=%B1%B9%C8%B8%B9%FD&LAW_CHECK=true&ORD_CHECK=true®L_CHECK=true&srchinresult=false&lawsrchtype=LAW_NM&subnm=%B1%B9%C8%B8%B9%FD&befsubnm=%B1%B9%C8%B8%B9%FD&lawchk=true&ordchk=true®lchk=true&LAW_ID=A1276&PROM_NO=12108&PROM_DT=20130813&
    韓國國會資訊系統 국회정보시스템, http://www.assembly.go.kr/renew10/info/inf/infosystem_list.jsp
    韓國國會議案資訊系統 국회의안정보시스템,http://likms.assembly.go.kr/bill/jsp/main.jsp
    韓國輿論振興基金會(新聞資料庫) 한국언론진흥재단,http://www.kinds.or.kr/
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    外交研究所
    100253006
    102
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100253006
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Diplomacy] Theses

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