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| Title: | 空屋率影響房價嗎？
Does Vacancy Rate Affect Housing Price? |
| Authors: | 陳蕙瑩
Chen, Hui Ying |
| Contributors: | 張金鶚
江穎慧
Chang, Chin Oh
Chiang, Ying Hui
陳蕙瑩
Chen, Hui Ying |
| Keywords: | 空屋率
自然空屋率
非自然空屋率
房價
VAR
Vacancy Rate
Natural Vacancy Rate
Non-natural Vacancy Rate
Housing Price
VAR |
| Date: | 2013 |
| Issue Date: | 2014-03-04 09:17:52 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 回顧台灣歷次住宅普查統計資料，空屋率逐年上升，2000年住宅普查，空屋數為123萬宅，空屋率為17.6%；2010年住宅普查結果則顯示，空屋數為156萬宅，空屋率為19.3%。過去文獻認為房價與空屋率為負向關係，當空屋率上升表示房價有下跌的趨勢，但近年數據顯示房價與空屋率呈現同步上揚，空屋率對房價似乎不如過往有負向顯著作用，確實與過去文獻研究之情形不同。
空屋率可解構為自然空屋率與非自然空屋率，根據理論基礎不同自然空屋率文獻分為兩種面向之探討。其一，Blank and Winnick(1953)將勞工市場中的薪資變動會受就業率的影響應用至出租市場中，認為租金的變動將會受到自然空屋率高低的影響，維持市場上租金或價格水準均衡下之自然空屋率，可視為租金或價格調整之基準。其次，住宅市場中，因資訊不完全之特性及異質性高，買賣雙方通常需花費一定時間才能尋得適當的住宅，在搜尋過程中，市場需有一定數量之空屋以維持市場正常運作，此空屋數量稱為自然空屋率。自然空屋率受到住宅市場供需結構所影響，若其住宅異質性及搜尋成本提高，摩擦性需求也隨之增加，則因應市場上「交易」與「遷徙」搜尋成本之自然空屋率也會隨之上升。
過去文獻雖估計自然空屋率，但並無進一步討論自然空屋率、非自然空屋率與房價之間的關係，故本文先估算住宅市場之自然空屋率，再進一步探討空屋率、自然空屋率、非自然空屋率與房價之間的關係與影響程度，並對目前目前住宅市場高空屋率與高房價並存之不合理現象提出解釋。根據自然空屋率理論基礎，本文分別以房價變動均衡模型與房價空屋率聯立方程式估計自然空屋率。房價變動均衡模型之實證結果可初步瞭解都會區呈現供過於求的情形，房價理應將向下調整，但模型設計過於簡單。而房價空屋率聯立方程式之模型解釋力佳，2000至2010年台灣地區自然空屋率平均為7.38%，其中都會區之自然空屋率較高。
本研究採用房價空屋率聯立方程式結果，並進一步建立VAR模型進行因果關係檢定、變異數分解及衝擊反應分析之實證，實證顯示空屋率與房價互為獨立因果關係，且非自然空屋率對房價之負向衝擊反應甚於空屋率及自然空屋率對房價之影響程度，因此，本文認為2000年後，空屋率對於檢視房價調整的效果有限，以非自然空屋率檢視房價調整情形，方可得較合理精確之解釋。
Based on the statistical data collected by Population and Housing Census in Taiwan, the housing vacancy rate has shown a steady upward movement since 1980. In particular, the levels of housing vacancy rate and the numbers of vacant units have grown from 17.6% and 1,230,000 units in 2000 to 19.3% and 1,560,000 in 2010. In the past, the housing price decreased as the housing vacancy rate increased and vice versa; however, we find different situation from the previous researches that the housing price and the housing vacancy rate rise simultaneously.
The housing vacancy rate can be divided into the natural vacancy rate and the non-natural vacancy rate. According to the two different natural housing vacancy rate theories, we discuss two different scenarios. First, Blank and Winnick(1953) stated that the rental adjustment is significantly affected by the relationship between the natural vacancy rate and the vacancy rate. If natural vacancy rate is higher than vacancy rate, the rental might rise in the future; on the contrary, if natural vacancy rate is lower than vacancy rate, the rental might fall. Second, the inherently imperfect nature of the housing market has imposed heavy burdens of search costs on both buyers and suppliers. In order to facilitate transactions in the market, there always has to be a certain fraction of vacant houses maintained continuously from one period to another. And the specific amount of vacant houses is regarded as the housing vacancy rate.
Although the scholars estimated the natural vacancy rate but there is no literature to further discuss the relationship between the natural vacancy rate, the non-natural vacancy rate and the housing price. In hence, we calculate the two natural vacancy rates in the housing market by applying the two models based on the two theories respectively. We use the result of the two-equation structure model due to the significantly positive R-square and the average natural vacancy rate is 7.38% in Taiwan.
Furthermore, we use the VAR model to examine granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The empirical results demonstrate that the vacancy rate and the housing price are independent which means the vacancy rate would not affect the housing price. In addition, the negative impulse response of the non-natural vacancy rate to the housing price is greater than the impulse response of the vacancy rate and the natural vacancy rate to the housing price individually. Therefore, in this empirical study, we find that using the non-natural vacancy rate to verify the adjustment of the housing price is more reasonable and precise than using the vacancy rate. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
100257023
102 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100257023 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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