English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113648/144635 (79%)
Visitors : 51682597      Online Users : 575
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/61070


    Title: 台灣經濟成長率預測在景氣循環中的不對稱行為偏誤現象
    Other Titles: Asymmetric Behavioral Bias on Taiwan`s Economic Growth Rate Forecasts
    Authors: 謝子雄;徐士勛
    Xie,Zi-Xiong;Hsu,Shih-Hsun
    Contributors: 政大經濟系
    Keywords: 經濟成長率;景氣循環;預測誤差;預測行為偏誤;偏誤修正預測
    Economic growth rate;Business cycle;Forecasting error;Behavioral bias;Bias-corrected forecast
    Date: 2012-09
    Issue Date: 2013-09-17 15:27:26 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究建立了一個新的分析架構，藉由預測誤差來認定預測機構在「景氣循環」波動中的兩種可能「行為偏誤」現象－意圖性的樂觀或悲觀的預測態度而造成的行為偏誤與非意圖性地對新進訊息反應不及或反應過度而造成的行為偏誤，並透過此架構分析台灣經濟成長率的預測表現。我們的實證結果顯示，台灣的官方機構（行政院主計處）除了對景氣循環波動中的訊息反應不及而產生預測誤差外，在景氣擴張時期還會因過度悲觀而低估經濟成長率；而民間機構（中華經濟研究院）的預測則因為滲入更多意圖性的行為偏誤而導致其預測值較不準確，其於擴張期低估成長率的原因主要來自於過度悲觀及對訊息反應過度，而於衰退期高估的原因則來自過度樂觀和反應不及兩種行為偏誤。除此之外，我們還發現，行政院主計處的預測在2001年前後期有相當大的轉變，2001年之後預測行為偏誤現象更為顯著且伴隨較大的預測誤差波動。最後，我們建立相對應的「行為偏誤修正模型」，修正所認定出行政院主計處的行為偏誤並進而提出修正後的經濟成長率預測值。其中，修正了景氣循環過程中每一階段可能產生的行為偏誤。修正後的預測值明顯優於行政院主計處的預測值及文獻上利用大量訊息而建立的更新預測值。由於我們的分析架構僅需預測機構的預測值序列即可操作，因此我們認為，本文所提出的分析架構除了在相關研究上有所貢獻外，應可作為研究者於進行經濟預測時的另一項新選擇。
    In this study, we propose a new approach to investigating forecasters` behavioral biases during business cycles via inspecting and analyzing one-step-ahead forecasting errors. For Taiwan`s economic growth rate, the effects of optimism/pessimism and overreaction/under-reaction to the news on forecasts during the expansion and contraction periods of real activity are identified in the proposed framework. Overall, our empirical results discover that Taiwan`s government usually under-reacts to the news during business cycles, and tends to be pessimistic, especially in expansions. Besides, these behavioral biases in the post-2001 period are much more significant than those in the pre-2001 period. On the other hand, when comparing the government to the private sector in Taiwan, these behavioral biases affect the private sector`s forecasts much more severely. Moreover, in our in-sample and out-of-sample experiments, the forecast performance improves significantly after correcting the identified behavioral biases of the Taiwan government`s forecast. Because the proposed approach needs only time series data of forecasts, it is easy to implement, and thus might be a good alternative to the existing approaches of economic forecasts.
    Relation: 經濟論文, 40(3), 377-416
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    377416.pdf3418KbAdobe PDF2917View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback