政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/60974
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113325/144300 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51186693      線上人數 : 891
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/60974


    題名: 選舉結果機率之分析-以2006年與2008年台灣選舉為例
    其他題名: Analysis on Probability of Election Results: Case Studies of 2006 and 2008 Elections in Taiwan
    作者: 童振源;周子全;林繼文;林馨怡
    Tung,Chen-Yuan;Chou,Tzu-Chuan;Lin,Jih-Wen;Lin,Hsin-Yi
    貢獻者: 政大經濟系
    關鍵詞: 預測市場;民意調查;機率;北高市長選舉;立委選舉;總統大選
    prediction markets;opinion polls;probability;Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections;legislator election;presidential election
    日期: 2011-09
    上傳時間: 2013-09-16 17:38:00 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文利用「未來事件交易所」的交易資料，分析預測市場「是否預測型」合約能否準確預測選舉結果，合約包括2006年的北高市長選舉、2008年的立委選舉及總統大選。本文分成四個部份分析「是否預測型」合約的準確度：加權平均價格與事件發生機率；加權平均價格與該合約結果的迴歸分析；五項比率（正確率、精準率、命中率、假警報率與貴氏比率差）分析；三項穩健性測試。本文發現：1、選舉當選預測合約的加權平均價格能充分反映候選人當選機率；2、加權平均價格是影響當選與否的主要因素；3、預測市場的預測準確度高於民調機構；4、預測市場的準確度隨時間接近選舉而逐步提升。
    Using trading data of the Exchange of Future Events, this paper analyzes whether yes-or-no contracts of prediction markets can accurately predict the election results, including Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral election in 2006, legislator election and presidential election in 2008. This paper analyzes the accuracy of the yes-or-no contracts in four parts: volume-weighted average price and the probability of event occurrence, logit model analysis on the volume-weighted average prices and the results of these contracts, analysis of five rates (correctness rate, precision rate, hit rate, false alarm rate, Kuipers score), and three robustness tests. This paper finds that: 1. volume-weighted average price can reflect the probability of candidates winning elections; 2. volume-weighted average price is the main factor to predict the events; 3. the prediction accuracy of prediction markets is higher that of polling institutions; 4. the accuracy of prediction markets increases as the election day approaches.
    關聯: 臺灣民主季刊, 8(3), 135-159
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[經濟學系] 期刊論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    135159.pdf1765KbAdobe PDF21216檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋