政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/60333

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/60333

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政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Department of Economics > Theses > Item 140.119/60333

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/60333

Title:	政府公債佔GDP的最適比率 The optimal ratio of public debt to GDP
Authors:	林銘峰 Lin, Ming Feng
Contributors:	黃俞寧 Hwang, Yu Ning 林銘峰 Lin, Ming Feng
Keywords:	DSGE 政府公債國內生產毛額 DSGE public debt GDP
Date:	2010
Issue Date:	2013-09-05 14:20:18 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文研究目的是在動態隨機一般均衡模型當中，討論政府公債佔國內生產毛額的最適比率。本文建立一封閉經濟體系，討論政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率改變時，對主要的經濟變數有何影響。不同於先前的研究，我們假設在極大化福利的前提下，找尋最適的政府公債佔國內生產毛額比率。靜止均衡的分析發現，政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率與消費呈現正向變動的關係，與產出和勞動有著負向變動的關係。除此之外，當政府公債佔國內生產毛額的比率增加時，福利水準會越來越低，因此，最適的公債比率為零。 The objective of this paper is to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by using a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this paper, the model that we build is a closed economy. We discuss the effect of the optimal public debt to GDP ratio on primary variables. Different from previous research, we look for the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP that will maximize welfare. In the steady state analysis, we find that the ratio of public debt to GDP has the positive effect on consumption and negative effect on output and labor. Furthermore, the welfare level is lowered with the rise in the debt ratios to GDP. Thus, the optimal debt ratio should be 0.
Reference:	Ando A. and Modigliani F. (1963), "The `Life-Cycle` Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests." American Economic Review, 53(1), 55-84. Barro R. J. and Grossman H. I. (1971), "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, 61(1), 82-93. Barro R.J. (1974), "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?" The Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117. Barro R.J. (1979), "On the Determination of the Public Debt," The Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-971. Bohn H. (1998), "The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 949-963. Chen Y.Y. (2000), "The Government Budget Deficit and The Macroeconomic Development," Master’s thesis, University of Donghwa, Hualien, Taiwan. (in traditional Chinese) Dalamages B. (2000), "Public Sector and Economic Growth: The Greek Experience." Applied Economics, 32(3), 277-288. Devereux M.B. (2010), "Fiscal Deficits, Debt, and Money Policy in Liquidity Trap," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 44. Feldstein M. S. (1985), "The Optimal Level of Social Security Benefits," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(2), 303-320. Friedman M. (1957), "A Theoty of The Consumption Function," Princetion, NJ: Princeton University Press. Lucas, R.E. (1987), "Model of Business Cycles," Basil Blackwell, New York. Scharler J. (2006), "Do Bank-Based Financial Systems Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility by Smoothing Interest Rates?" Oesterreichische Nationalbank Working Paper, No.117. Schmitt-Grohé , S. and M. Uribe (2007), "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(6), 1702-1725. Smyth D.J. and Hsing Y. (1995), "In Search of An Optimal Debt Ratio for Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, 13(4), 51-59. Tseng C.C. (2002), "Public Debt and Fiscal Policy – An Empirical Study of Taiwan," Master’s Thesis, University of Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan. (in traditional Chinese)
Description:	碩士國立政治大學經濟學系 98258017 99
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098258017
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Economics] Theses

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