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    題名: 選前民意調查緊張程度與投票率之間的關係－臺灣選舉實證資料為例
    Closeness and turnout: evidence from election of Taiwan
    作者: 曾依婷
    Tseng, Yi Ting
    貢獻者: 王智賢
    曾依婷
    Tseng, Yi Ting
    關鍵詞: 緊張程度
    投票率
    日期: 2010
    上傳時間: 2013-09-04 15:09:55 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究探討臺灣選情緊張程度與投票率之間的實證關係。主要係依據 Downs (1957) 的理性投票者模型及參考 Matsusaka and Palda (1993) 衡量選情緊張程度的方式，不過將選情緊張程度改成使用選前民調資料。本研究結果發現選情緊張程度與投票率之間呈現不顯著關係。加入兩岸經濟差異程度變數之後，結果兩岸經濟差異程度與投票率之間呈現顯著負向關係，選情緊張程度與投票率之間也由不顯著關係變成顯著正向關係，與 Downsian 緊張程度假設結論相反。本文另一方面則探討個別選民的投票意願，結果發現選情緊張程度與選民投票意願之間呈現顯著負向關係，與 Downsian 緊張程度假設結論相同。加入兩岸經濟差異程度變數後，結果兩岸經濟差異程度與選民投票意願之間呈現顯著負向關係。
    參考文獻: 一、中文部分
    盛治仁 (2003)，「理性抉擇理論在政治學運用之探討」，《東吳政治學報》，第 17 期，21-51。

    二、英文部分
    Cox, G. W. (1988), “Closeness and Turnout: A Methodological Note,” The Journal of Politics, 50, 768-775.
    Cox, G. W. and Munger, M. C. (1989), “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections,” American Political Science Review, 83, 217-31.
    Crain, W. M., Leavens, D. R. and Lynn, A. (1987), “Voting and Not Voting at the Same Time,” Public Choice, 53, 221-229.
    Denver, D. and Hands, G. (1974), “Marginality and Turnout in British General Elections,” British Journal of Political Science, 4, 17-35.
    Denver, D. and Hands, G. (1985), “Marginality and Turnout in General Elections in the 1970`s,” British Journal of Political Science, 15, 381-88.
    Downs, A. (1957), “An Economic Theory of Democracy,” New York: Harper and Row.
    Foster, C. B. (1984), “The Performance of Rational Voter Models in Recent Presidential Elections,” American Political Science Review, 78, 678-90.
    Geys, B. (2006), “Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review of Aggregate-Level Research,” Electoral Studies, 25, 637–663.
    Kunce, M. (2001), “Pre-Election Polling and the Rational Voter: Evidence from State Panel Data (1986-1998),” Public Choice, 107, 21-34.
    Ledyard, J. O. (1981), “The Paradox of Voting and Candidate Competition: A General Equilibrium Analysis,” In G. Horwich and J.P. Quirk (Eds.), Essays in contemporary fields of economics, West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Press.
    Ledyard, J. O. (1984), “The Pure Theory of Two Candidate Elections,” Public Choice, 44, 7-41.
    Matsusaka, J. G. and Palda, F. (1993), “The Downsian Voter Meets the Ecological Fallacy,” Public Choice, 77, 855-878.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    98255005
    99
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098255005
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[財政學系] 學位論文

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