政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/59842

政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Master for Eminent Public Administrators > Theses > Item 140.119/59842

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59842

Title:	臺灣各縣市平均地價對其生育率的影響 The effect of average land price on fertility rate in Taiwan
Authors:	廖珮郁 Liao, Pei Yu
Contributors:	黃智聰 Huang, Jr Tsung 廖珮郁 Liao, Pei Yu
Keywords:	臺灣生育率臺灣各縣市平均地價雙因子固定效果模型 Taiwan fertility rate average land price two factor fixed effects model
Date:	2009
Issue Date:	2013-09-03 16:04:09 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	目前超低生育率現象，已對整體社會的走向、國家經濟的發展、生活思維的方式等都產生了相當大的影響。換言之，生育不僅是婦女本身的問題，它與國際社會的動態、經濟的全球化、企業的國際化、現代的子女教育、社會的性別教育、老年人的護理等都有著相當緊密的關係。因此，本研究的主要目的，在於探討臺灣各縣市房地產價格對生育率的影響，並瞭解臺灣生育率持續下降的癥結所在，找出可能影響生育率下降的主要因素加以分析。本文利用臺灣23個縣市別的追蹤資料，涵蓋期間為2000年至2008年，採雙因子固定效果模型進行實證分析。估計結果發現，在控制其他變數不變之下，在生育率遞延二期時，臺灣各縣市平均地價對生育率為負影響，且在生育率遞延三期時更為顯著，兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。而其他影響臺灣生育率的主要因素，如：各縣市農業人口比例、各縣市粗結婚率、與外國人結婚人數比例皆呈顯著正影響；臺灣各縣市平均地價、原住民人數比例及婦女勞動參與率皆呈顯著負影響。依本研究結果顯示，房地產價格是影響臺灣生育率相當重要的因素，政府應需高度正視此問題並有所作為。建議未來政府在訂定國家發展政策時，除需研擬更多提升生育率的策略，如：降低父母生育子女的機會成本、改善學前幼托體系，以及加強減輕家庭育兒壓力的宣導工作等，並可增加控制「臺灣房地產價格」及避免房價炒作之策略，以促進國家永續發展及增強國際競爭力。 The current low fertility rate has been a great impact on our entire social trend, the development of national economy, and the way we think. That is, fertility is not only women’s consideration, but also an issue connected closely to international society, economical globalization, internationalization of business, children education, sex education, and nursing care of the elders. As a result, the main purpose of this paper lies on the effect of average land price on fertility rate in Taiwan. This article uses the panel data of the 23 counties and cities of Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, and does the evidence-based analysis by two-factor fixed-effects model. We found that the average land price has conspicuously positive effect on the fertility rate in Taiwan. While other main factors affect the fertility rate in Taiwan such as the proportion of farm-workers, crude marriage rate, and the proportion of marriage with the foreigners have conspicuously positive effects on it; on the other hand, female labor force participation and the proportion of aborigine have conspicuously negative effects on it. According to our study, average land price is the most important factor which affects the fertility rate in Taiwan, and the government should face the problem and do something to it. When making policy, it is suggested the government may take into consideration of how to control the housing price in Taiwan and avoid housing price speculation.
Reference:	一、中文文獻：吳閔鈺（2006），《自有住宅與生育決策─台灣地區之實證分析》。台北：國立政治大學財政研究所碩士論文。林祖嘉（1998），「台灣地區房價波動因果關係之研究」，《台灣經濟學會年會論文集》，頁345-368。林素菁、林祖嘉（2001），「台灣地區住宅供給彈性之估計」，《住宅學報》，第10期，頁17-28。姜堯民（2001），《不動產投資理論與實務》。新陸書局股份限公司，頁3-8。陳佳欣（2007），《家戶首次購置住宅與生命歷程之關聯分析》。台南：國立成功大學都市計劃研究所博士論文。陳彥仁（2006），《台灣生育率下降因素之實證探討》。台南：國立成功大學經濟研究所碩士論文。張金鶚、范垂爐（1993），「房地產真實交易價格之研究」，《住宅學報》，第1期，頁75-97。張金鶚（1997），《房地產投資與決策分析理論與實務》。華泰書局。張梅英（1992），「台灣地區都市地價變動分析」。《經社法制論叢》，第10期，頁301-327。黃修梅（2005），《台灣婦女教育程度與龍虎年效應對生育率之影響》。台北：國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文。劉一龍、陳寬政、楊靜利（2003），「鼓勵生育與所得免稅額調整」，《臺灣社會福利學刊》，第4期，頁53-77。劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪（2003），「臺灣低生育率之空間分析」，《人口學刊》，第39期，頁119-155。蔡宏政（2007），「台灣人口政策的歷史形構」，《臺灣社會學刊》，第39期，頁65-106。藍銘偉（2003），《台灣、美國與瑞典生育率模型之研究》。台北：國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。二、政府及其他出版品：內政部（1999-2009），《都市地價指數》，台北：內政部。內政部（2005），《社會指標統計年報》，台北：內政部。內政部（2007），《國富統計》，台北：內政部。內政部（2008），《人口政策白皮書》，台北：內政部。內政部（2010），《住宅需求動向》，台北：內政部。三、外文文獻： Basu, Alaka M. (2002) , “Why Does Education Lead to Lower Fertility? A Critical Review of Some of the Possibilities,” World Development, 30, 1779-1790. Becker, Gary S. (1991), A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Becker, Gary S., Edward L. Glaseser and K.M. Murphy(1999), “Population and Economic Growth,” American Economic Review, 89(2), 145-149. Cheng, Benjamin S. and Savior L.S. Nwachukwu (1997), “The Effect of Education on Fertility in Taiwan: A Time Series Analysis,” Economics Letters, 56(1), 95-99. Cheng, Benjamin S. (1999), “Cointergration and Causality between Fertility and Female Labor Participation in Taiwan: A Multivariate Approach,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 27(4), 422-434. DiPasquale, D. and W.C. Wheaton (1994), “Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices,” Journal of Urban Economics, 35(1), 1-27. Feijten, Peteke and Clara H. Mulder (2002), “The Timing of Household Events and Housing Events in the Netherlands: A Longitudinal Perspective,” Housing Studies, 17, 773-792. George Hondroyiannis and Evangelia Papapetrou(2002), “Demographic Transition in Europe,” Economics Bulletin, 10(3), 1-8. Hausman, J. A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics,” Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271. Hsiao, C. (1986), Analysis of Panel Data. New York: Cambridge University Press. Huang, Jr-Tsung (2002), “Personal Tax Exemption：The Effect on Fertility in Taiwan,” The Developing Economies, 11(1), 32-48. Huang, Jr-Tsung, An-Pang Kao, and Wen-Chuan Hung(2006), “The Influence of College Tuition and Fees on the Fertility Rate in Taiwan,” Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 27(4), 626-642. Leibenstein, Harvey (1981), “Economic Decision Theory and Fertility Behavior: A Speculative Essay,” Population and Development Review, 7 (3), 381-400. Lin, C.C. (2000), “Housing Production and Factor Demand: A Cost Function Approach,” 中華民國住宅學會第九屆年會學術研討會論文集, 1-14。 Madigan, R., M. Munro and S. J. Smith (1990), “Gender and the Meaning of Home,” International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,14, 625-647. Mok, D. K. (2005), “The Life Stages and Housing Decisions of Young Households: an Insider Perspective,” Environment and Planning A, 37, 2121-2146. Mulder, Clara H. (2006), “Population and Housing: A Two-Sided Relationship,” Demographic Research, 401-412. Poot, Jacques and Jacques Siegers (2001), “The Macroeconomics of Fertility in Small Open Economies: A Test of the Becker-Barro Model to the Netherlands and New Zealand,” Journal of Population Economics, 14, 73-100. Seko, M. (1991), “The Effect of Inflation on Japanese Homeownership Rates: Evidence from Time Series,” Economic Studies Quarterly, 42, 155-163. Teitelbaum, Michael S (1975), “Relevance of Demographic Transition Theory for Developing Countries,” Science, 188, 420-425. Todaro, Michael P. and Stephen C. Smith (2003), Economic Development. New York: Addison-Wesley, 275-283. 四、參考網站： Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey：http://www.demographia.com/ 內政部統計處：http：//www.moi.gov.tw/ 內政部地政司：http://www.land.moi.gov.tw/ 行政院經濟建設委員會：<人力資源與社會福利>，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/ 中華民國統計資訊網：http://www.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=4
Description:	碩士國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程 97921044 98
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097921044
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Master for Eminent Public Administrators] Theses

Files in This Item:

File	Size	Format
104401.pdf	4867Kb	Adobe PDF2	314	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...