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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/59637


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59637


    題名: 以B-Spline方法預測NBA冠軍
    Predicting NBA Championship By Using B-Spline
    作者: 王彥智
    Wang, Yan Chih
    貢獻者: 黃子銘
    Huang, Tzee Ming
    王彥智
    Wang, Yan Chih
    關鍵詞: B-樣條
    平滑資料
    節點
    美國男子職業籃球
    總冠軍預測
    B-Spline
    knots
    NBA
    predict
    日期: 2012
    上傳時間: 2013-09-03 09:53:56 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文研究目的在於預測12-13年NBA總冠軍,蒐集12-13球季NBA常規賽數據,將每場球賽的數據整理分類,主要研究方法是使用B-Spline為基底建模,配適出每個球隊的實力曲線,再根據三種不同概念的指標,DIFF(Difference):比賽得失分差。GmSr(Game Score):自身球隊的效率分數,表示球隊攻擊能力。AntiGmSr(Anti-Game Score):比賽對手的效率分數,表示壓制對手的能力。最後,使用排名積分法和最適加權法來融合這三種不同指標分數,預測當年度總冠軍。此外,本文也將02-12年總共十個球季的總冠軍賽果加入預測判斷條件,使之更能加強對總冠軍預測的準確性。排名積分法預測2013年總冠軍為熱火隊、最適加權法預測為灰熊隊。
    We apply a B-Spline approach to predict the playoff results of National Basketball Association (NBA). Here the features are composed of the regular seasons. Moreover, we use DIFF(diffentials),GmSr(gamescore) and AntiGmSr(the rival`s gamescore) to rank to predict the final result. With 10-year records, the predict result is that for the best chance of 2013 NBA Championship is Heat.
    參考文獻: [1] Martin Manley`s Basketball Heaven: The 1990 Edition. Doubleday, 1989.
    [2] Dave Heeren. Basketball Abstract 1989-90. Prentice Hall, 1989.
    [3] John Hollinger. Pro Basketball Forecast: 2005-06. Potomac Books Inc,
    USA, 2005.9.30.
    [4] Feifang Hu and James V. Zidek. Forecasting nba basketball playoff out-
    comes using the weighted likelihood. Institute of Mathematical Statistics,
    45:385{395, 2004.
    [5] Michael Lewis. Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. W W
    Norton & Co Inc, 2011.
    [6] Mary J. Lindstrom. Penalized estimation of free-knot splines. Journal of
    Computational and Graphical Statistics, pages 8:333{352, 1999.
    [7] Bernard Loeffelholz, Earl Bednar, and Kenneth W. Bauer. Predicting nba
    games using neural networks. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports,
    5(1), 2009.
    [8] Dean Oliver. Basketball On Paper: Rules And Tools For Performance
    Analysis. Potomac Books Inc, 2005.
    [9] David Ruppert. Selecting the number of knots for penalized splines. Journal
    of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 11(4):735{757, 2002.
    [10] Bob Ryan, Sam Smith, Leonard Koppett, Bob Bellotti, and Kenneth A.
    Shouler. Total Basketball: The Ultimate Basketball Encyclopedia. Natl
    Book Network, 2003.
    [11] Thomas W. Sederberg. An introduction to b-spline curves. 3 2005.
    [12] Na Wei. Predicting the outcome of nba playoffs using the nave bayes algo-
    rithms. 2010. Department of Biomedical Engineering, College of Engineer-
    ing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA.
    [13] Jackie B. Yang and Ching-Heng Lu. Predicting nba championship by learn-
    ing from history data. 2012 Spring.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計研究所
    100354003
    101
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100354003
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[統計學系] 學位論文

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