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    題名: 縣市內部人口遷徙影響因素分析
    作者: 吳文傑;彭建文;龔書玉
    Wu,Wen-Chieh;Peng,Chien-Wen;Kung,Shu-Yu
    貢獻者: 政大財政系
    關鍵詞: 內部遷徙;居住遷徙;住宅市場;追蹤資料分析法;二元固定效果模型
    intra migration;residential migration;housing market;panel data analysis;two-way fixed effect model
    日期: 2009-12
    上傳時間: 2013-08-26 11:39:00 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 以往人口遷徙研究大多著重於區域間人口遷徙與經濟變數關係分析，鮮少從總體面探討影響區域內部的遷徙行為。本研究認為一個地區的內部遷徙率愈高，代表潛在換屋家戶能較有效率透過居住環境改變來提升居住品質，滿足其住宅需求。本文從住宅市場供給、家戶住宅需求調整、以及房價負擔能力等不同角度，運用追蹤資料分析法(panel data analysismethod)，以臺灣22個縣市1982-2007年資料為實證範圍，探討影響不同縣市內部遷徙率差異的因素。實證結果顯示，住宅自有率對內部遷徙率有顯著負向影響，有偶率、使用執照面積、空屋率、以及房價所得比對內部遷徙率則有顯著正向影響，且住宅自有率與有偶率是影響內部遷徙率最主要的因素，使用執照面積、空屋率、以及房價所得比的影響力則相對較小。此外，各縣市不隨時間改變的區域特性對內部遷徙率亦有顯著的影響，都市化程度較高縣市及東部縣市的內部遷徙率明顯較其他縣市為高。由時間效果係數值可發現內部遷徙率亦明顯受到總體經濟、房地產市場景氣與政策的影響。
    The existing literature on migration decisions relates economic variables mainly to inter-regional migration, but seldom to intra-region migration. This paper argues that a higher intra-region mobility rate may indicate the fact that households in the region can be more effective in raising the quality of living and inmeeting their needs bymoving to another house in the same region. Employing panel data covering 22 localities in Taiwan and the period of 1982-2007, this study analyzes determinants of intra-region migration based on a few different perspectives. Our empirical results suggest that intra-region mobility rate is negatively associated with homeownership rate, but positively associated with marriage rate, floor area of occupancy permit, vacancy rate, and the ratio of price to income. Both homeownership rate and marriage rate are among key determinants. We find the individual fixed effects in urbanized regions and the eastern region are statistically higher than ones in other regions. Moreover, the significant time-fixed effects suggest that the intra-region mobility rate is influenced by macro-economy and housing market cycles, as well as housing policies.
    關聯: 人口學刊, 39, 85-118
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[財政學系] 期刊論文

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