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    Title: 結合模擬效果之回顧分析—以中國汽車市場為例
    Retrospective Analysis of the Effect of Merger Simulation-An Example in China`s Auto Market
    Authors: 巫婉萍
    Contributors: 胡偉民
    巫婉萍
    Keywords: 結合模擬
    中國汽車產業
    差異中之差異法
    Date: 2012
    Issue Date: 2013-07-23 13:50:34 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 產業組織理論中,企業的結合行為,可能產生嚴重的反競爭效果,故在反壟斷法規有關於結合的反競爭分析中,結合模擬(Merger Simulation)是結合審查過程中常用的工具,作為評估結合適當性的經濟證據。而模擬的方法,是利用結合前的資料,預測結合後的經濟後果,但結果是否失真,還需運用事後實際市場資料,回顧模擬預測的結果,而這長期效果之評估,將有助於增加判決的品質。本研究將以結合模擬的回顧分析方向出發,以中國汽車市場為例,分析以實際資料衡量的結合效果是否與模擬預測有異。
    模擬預測之結合效果,本文以Hu, Lu, and Zhu(2013)之結論為主要參考:結合行為會使得結合企業的產品價格提升,增強結合廠商的市場能力。實際資料衡量的結合效果,本研究以 2009 年 1 月至 2011 年 11 月中國汽車 295 個車款的混合資料,運用自然實驗(Natural Experiment)法的差異中之差異法 (Difference in Difference,DID)分析 2009 年 11 月中國三家汽車公司發生結合對價格的影響效果。然而,由於結合模擬諸多的假設上以及未考量企業結合後的綜效,例如靜態模型估計設定、成本協同(Cost Synergy)效應、產品進行重新定位(Reposition)等,導致結合模擬預測結果與實際資料估計出之實證結果並不完全相符。
    Reference: 中文部分:
    中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心(2010),《2010年版中國汽車工業年鑑》,北京市:機械工業。
    中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心(2011),《2011年版中國汽車工業年鑑》,北京市:機械工業。
    中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心(2012),《2012年版中國汽車工業年鑑》,北京市:機械工業。
    平新喬和魏軍鋒(2001),《中國汽車工業市場規模和企業數量》,北京大學中國經濟研究中心討論稿系列,編號:C2001007。
    胡偉民(2012),「結合模擬(merger simulation)與價格上漲壓力(UPP)之介紹與應用–以中國汽車和速食麵市場為例」,工作論文。
    夏樂生(1997),「中國大陸汽車工業發展現況—兼論台商赴大陸投資汽車產業情形」,《共黨問題研究》,23(4),54-70。
    路風、封凱棟(2005),《發展我國自主知識產權汽車工業的政策選擇》,北京:北京大學出版。
    英文部分:
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    Bjornerstedt, J. & F. Verboven (2012), “Does Merger Simulation Work? A Natural Experiment in the Swedish Analgesics Market,” Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Discussion Paper Series, 12.
    Budzinski, O. & I. Ruhmer (2010), “Merger Simulation in Competition Policy: A Survey,” Journal of Competition Law and Economics, 6(2), 277-319.
    Card, D. & A. B. Krueger (1994), “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,” American Economic Review, 84(4), 772-93.
    Donohue, J. & S. D. Levitt (2001), “The impact of legalized abortion on crime,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(2), 379-420.
    Eissa, N. (1995), “Taxation and Labor Supply of Married Women: The Tax Reform Act of 1986 as a Natural Experiment,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 5023.
    Eissa, N. & J. B. Liebman (1996), “Labor supply response to the earned income tax credit,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(2), 605-637.
    Ellwood, D. T. (2000), “The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Social Policy Reforms on Work, Marriage, and Living Arrangements,” National Tax Journal, 53(4), 1063-1106.
    Epstein, R. J. & D. L. Rubinfeld (2002), “Merger simulation: A simplified approach with new applications,” Antitrust Law Journal, 69(3), 883-919.
    Farrell, J. & C. Shapiro (1990), “Horizontal Mergers: An Equilibrium Analysis,” The American Economic Review, 107-126.
    Focarelli, D. & F. Panetta (2003), “Are Mergers Beneficial to Consumers? Evidence from the Market for Bank Deposits,” American Economic Review, 1152-1172.
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    Holweg, M., J. Luo & N. Oliver (2009), “The Past, Present and Future of China`s Automotive Industry: A Value Chain Perspective,” International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, 2(1), 76-118.
    Hu, W., Z. Lu & D. Zhu (2013), “Demand Estimation of the Chinese New Car Market: a BLP Estimation with Incomplete Price Data,” Working Paper.
    Hu, W., J. Xiao & X. Zhou (2011), “Corporate Group and Inter-firm Relationship of Chinese Passenger-vehicle Industry,” Working Paper.
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    Molnar, J. (2008), “Market Power and Merger Simulation in Retail Banking,” Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper, (No. 4).
    Nevo, A. (2000), “Mergers with Differentiated Products: The Case of the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry,” The RAND Journal of Economics, 395-421.
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    Peters, C. (2006), “Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the US Airline Industry,” Journal of Law and Economics, 49(2), 627-649.
    Petrin, A. (2002), “Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan,” Journal of Political Economy, 110(4), 705-729.
    Weinberg, M. C. (2011), “More Evidence on the Performance of Merger Simulations,” The American Economic Review, 101(3), 51-55.
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    Werden, G. J. & L. M. Froeb (1994), “The Effects of Mergers in Differentiated Products Industries: Logit Demand and Merger Policy,” Journal of Law Economics and Organization, 10(2), 407-407.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    100255001
    101
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100255001
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[財政學系] 學位論文

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