政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/58457
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 113318/144297 (79%)
造访人次 : 51042789      在线人数 : 941
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/58457


    题名: 並立式混合選制下兩票之連動效果：日本眾議院選舉自民黨重複提名策略之分析（1996～2005年）
    其它题名: The Contamination Effect in a Mixed-Member Majoritarian System: The Influence of LDP`s Dual Candidacy in the Japanese House Elections (1996~2005)
    作者: 郭銘峰;黃紀;王鼎銘
    Huang, Chi
    贡献者: 政大政治系
    关键词: 並立式混合選制;日本眾議員選舉;重複提名;感染效果;雙變數機率單元模型
    Mixed-member majoritarian electoral systems;MMM;Japanese house election;Dual candidacy;Contamination effects;Bivariate probit model
    日期: 2012-06
    上传时间: 2013-06-21 10:33:36 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 混合式選制融合了多數決與比例代表兩種選制的精神，不過關於此種選制兩票架構對投票的影響，有兩種截然不同的主張：一是認為兩票各自獨立運作，其影響可以獨立估算；另一派則主張兩票抉擇會相互影響，亦即具有所謂連動效果（interaction effects，或稱感染效果contamination effects）的存在，因此必須綜合考量兩票架構的互動關係。而在日本施行的混合選制，又因允許候選人在兩種選票間重複提名，更使得其兩票間的連動關係益形複雜。
    本文以日本自民黨為背景，透過日本選舉研究（JES）的民調資料，採雙變數機率單元模型（bivariate probit model）分析1996至2005年間四屆眾議員選舉中的兩票效應。結果顯示，除傳統的政黨認同與保革意識形態會影響選民投票行為外；更重要的是，日本新制下的候選人重複提名制度，確實會影響選民兩票決策的互動性。依據本文的分析，自民黨若針對選區候選 人採重複提名策略，若有助於選民把單一選區（SMD）票投給自民黨的話，也能提升選民對於政黨比例代表（PR）的投票支持（即一致投票的效果）；但此一正面之間接效果尚不足以抵銷重複提名對自民黨政黨比例代表票本身的負面直接效果。至於自民黨之所以採重複 提名策略，似乎常是考量該選區候選人較居弱勢，因此希望藉由重複提名以提升政黨比例代表票。
    The Mixed Electoral System combines the spirits of plurality and proportional representation. The way two-ballot structure influencing the voting behavior however is not settled. Of the two distinctive schools, one believed that two ballots work separately and therefore, their influences should be estimated independently. The other group advocated the existence of contamination effects (or interaction effects), and believed that it is necessary to consider the interaction between two ballots. As for the Mixed-Member Majoritarian (MMM) Electoral System in Japan, it is actually more complicated because of the addition of dual candidacy.Based on the survey collected by the Japanese Election Studies (JES) between 1996 and 2005, we took the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as an example and analyzed the interaction between their two ballots. The bivariate probit result shows that, in addition to the party identification and political ideology, the dual candidacy in the new electoral system did influence the interaction between the two ballots. According to our findings, the dual candidacy helped those who vote for LDP candidates in single member district (SMD) to continue their support with the party votes (a so-called straight-ticket voting scenario). However, this indirect effect did not offset the negative direct effect that dual candidacy brought to the LDP party votes. To explain the contradictory direct and indirect effect, we find that the dual candidacy was a nomination strategy for LDP. They are more likely to adopt dual candidacy on the weak candidates, in order to attract more party votes in the districts.
    關聯: 問題與研究, 51(2), 35-67
    数据类型: article
    显示于类别:[政治學系] 期刊論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    05912539-201206-201301100058-201301100058-35-67.pdf4043KbAdobe PDF2810检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈