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    题名: 政府赤字與公債的三篇論文
    Three Essays on Government Deficit and Debt
    作者: 潘俊男
    Pan, Jiun Nan
    贡献者: 黃智聰
    高安邦
    Huang, Jr Tsung
    Kao, An Pang
    潘俊男
    Pan, Jiun Nan
    关键词: 政府赤字
    政府公債
    經濟成長
    外商直接投資
    房地產市場
    追蹤平滑轉換迴歸模型
    動態追蹤資料模型
    Government Deficit
    Government Debt
    Economic Growth
    Foreign Direct Investment
    Real Estate Market
    Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model
    Dynamic Panel Model
    日期: 2011
    上传时间: 2013-06-03 18:12:10 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本論文以實證分析探討政府赤字與公債對經濟成長、吸引外商直接投資與房地產市場的影響。首先，我們以1998年到2008年10個OECD國家的追蹤資料，建立追蹤平滑轉換迴歸模型（Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, PSTR Model）分析政府公債與經濟成長間的關係。主要結論發現，政府公債對經濟成長的影響出現非線性的門檻效果，亦即表示當政府公債佔GDP比率在門檻值40.798%與49.357%（本文設定兩種不同的公債定義）以前，政府公債增加對經濟成長的影響為正，而當政府公債佔GDP比率超過門檻值之後，政府公債增加對經濟成長的將產生負面的影響。

    其次，我們以1990年到2010年中國大陸30個省市地區的追蹤資料，建立動態追蹤資料模型(Dynamic Panel Model)，來分析政府赤字與吸引外商直接投資的關係。結果發現政府赤字對於吸引外商直接投資有顯著負面的影響，表示當財政赤字越高，外商直接投資越少。歸咎原因推論當一國政府赤字不斷增加，對於外商而言代表著不穩定的經濟與投資環境，因此會降低到該國投資的意願。

    最後，本文同樣以PSTR Model分析1999年到2010年中國大陸30個省市地區的追蹤資料，探討政府赤字、土地財政與房地產市場間的關係。主要結論發現，當中國大陸地方政府赤字增加時，地方政府通常會透過增加土地出讓金的政策解決赤字問題，這樣的方式稱為「土地財政」。然而增加土地出讓金的政策，會進一步增加房屋的建造成本，造成房價上漲。因此，本研究發現當政府赤字增加導致政府契稅增加（土地出讓金的替代變數），對房屋銷售金額的影響出現非線性的門檻效果，亦即表示當政府契稅佔GDP比率在門檻值11.65%以前，房屋銷售的金額成長相當快速，而當政府契稅佔GDP比率超過門檻值之後，房屋銷售的金額成長就變的緩慢。亦即表示中國大陸地方政府透過土地財政手段解決財政赤字問題，的確會推升房價影響房地產市場。
    This dissertation has assessed empirically the impact of government debt or fiscal deficit on economic growth, attracting of Foreign Direct Investment, and real estate market. First, we establish a panel smooth transition regression model and use 10 OECD-countries panel data from 1988 to 2008 to catch the relation more comprehensively between government debt and the economic growth. The primary finding is that the debt/GDP ratio and economic growth have a nonlinear relationship, and this study calculates the debt/GDP turning point of this concave relationship is roughly between 40.798% and 49.357% on average for the sample, across all models. In addition, all the sample countries’ average debt/GDP ratios are between 10.8%-57.3% except Japan (99.32%) during 1988-2008. This means that, on average for the 10 OECD countries, government debt/GDP ratios above such threshold would have a negative effect on economic growth. In other words, this suggests that for many countries current debt levels already may have a detrimental impact on GDP growth. This evidence constitutes an additional warning signal for policy-makers (this time from a long-term growth perspective).

    Secondly, we use 30 China-provinces panel data from 1999 to 2010, this study estimated by dynamic panel model that can catch the relation more comprehensively between government deficit and FDI. The primary finding is that the government deficit has the expected sign and is significant. That means when the government face the serious problem of public deficit, it will affect the investment environment and FDI will decline cause the unstable investment environment. This study confirms that fiscal deficits of developing economies, which have been enlarged by the recent crisis, lead to contraction even in long term stable foreign investment flows like FDI.

    Finally, we use a panel data set of 30 provinces in China for 1999-2010 to explore how the relationship between government deficit, land finance and real estate market. The most important result is that there is a significantly positive relationship between house selling and deed tax/GDP ratio, it means that house selling rapidly increases in the early stage and then smoothly increases in the later stage after the levels of fiscal deficit/GDP ratio exceed approximately 11.65%.
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    描述: 博士
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