| Abstract: | 歐巴馬總統上臺後，對於亞洲改採積極態度，意圖扭轉布希政府因忽視而產生對美國不利的戰略環境。面對全球金融危機所造成的國力衰退，美國體會到無論在國際議題上或是雙邊關係上，都有必須要與中國進行合作的壓力。美中關係在2009年度過短暫的「蜜月期」，11月歐巴馬第一次以總統身份出訪中國，簽署「美中聯合聲明」，試圖規範未來兩國之間互動的一些根本原則，雙方關係可謂達到新的初試高點。 2010年美中之間出現多次的磨擦，甚至在下半年間，出現多次的軍事對峙戲碼，但是幾乎同時間，美中之間高層官員來回協商，並在整體形勢的需求之下，雙方均體認到必須要盡速化解掉軍事對峙的緊繃氣氛，運用外交協商更有效的共同面對許多國際議題的挑戰。本計劃的目的在於進行深入評估美中關係現階段的定位，以及對於亞太安全體系的實質影響。美中之間的合作與競爭態勢愈來與明顯，實際上，雙方非常清楚未來必須要採取更多合作，降低對峙與衝突的可能性，雙方現正在重新調整相互定位中。美國已經強勢運用其硬實力，重新鏈結亞太安全體系，除了雙邊同盟關係之外，也積極介入東亞區域整合的多邊架構，這將導致亞太新安全結構的出現。
Global financial tsunami has since 2008 challenged the existing global and regional orders. China was expected to take more responsibility by the international community. In coping with the unprecedented scale of challenge, China has been at the center of international financial relief. On the contrary, the supremacy of the United States has relatively declined as a result of the financial crisis at home. Under the broader context of power shift, the US-China relation is now entering into a complex situation. It is clear that more cooperation and consultation on international issues between the two are more desirable. At the peak of the global financial tsunami, President Obama came to the office in January 2009. The national power of the US was weakened and thus American options on foreign policy were substantially limited. At the end of 2009, during President Obama’s first visit to Asia, a clear and friendly gesture to the region was shaped. The US-China summit concluded with the US-China Joint Statement, which stressed establishment and deepening of bilateral strategic mutual trust. The US was seeking for more Chinese cooperation in bilateral, regional and global issues. Many believe that the bilateral relationship was going to march through a cozy period of time, as new friendly was established between Obama and Hu Jintao. Basically, the US was thinking of setting a new tone with a forthcoming message to China. The bilateral relation could become more comprehensive. Quite surprisingly into 2010, the relationship however turned sourced. Following through a number of issues popped up, the US government announced to approve the arms sales deal to Taiwan and agreed to welcome Dalai Lama visiting the US. The Chinese government reacted with a strong protest on those political issues which have been considered as breaching integrity of sovereignty. In responding to arms sales deal to Taiwan, Beijing immediately announced to cease military exchange with the US indefinitely canceling several rounds of official visits. Although the bilateral Strategic Economic Dialogue continues, military exchange was called to a halt. Then, on 23 July 2010, US State Secretary Hilary Clinton highlighted in the occasion of ASEAN Regional Forum ministerial meeting that “the US has a national interest in freedom of navigation…” Chinese responded with criticism as if the US is trying to interfere in the South China Sea disputes and internationalize the issues, which China can not accept. As the US-China’s military exchange was putting on halt, both the US and China announced to conduct different scale of military exercises to express certain dissatisfactory gesture to each other. This two-year research project is thus trying to examine the extent of US Asia policy and fundamental change of the US-China relation over the past two years since the beginning of the global financial tsunami and China’s foreign policy focuses. Under the Obama Administration, a more cooperative approach toward China is desirable. It would lead to US’s keen interest in engaging in the regional security frameworks and multilateral platform.
2008年爆發的美國次貸風暴而引發全球性的金融危機，更加強化了全球的財富與經濟實力已經由西方轉向東方。中國大陸經濟實力持續上升，預料在國際社會終將漸增扮演重要決策角色。2010年歐洲出現重大債信問題，更加凸顯中國經濟實力的角色，相對於美國實力的衰微，中國在世界的影響力陡然增加。這就是歐巴馬總統就任之後，首先面對中美關係與過去完全不同的情境，美國必須要面對強大的中國，同時擁有大部份美國公債的中國。因此，在總體結構上，中美之間將會尋求更多的合作，並極力避免彼此發生衝撞、衝突的機會。中美關係也將進入重新調整結構的新時代，這也意味著新時代中美關係已經朝向建構穩定機制性互動關係。美國從2010年充分掌握住東亞周邊的突發事件，積極運用周邊國家與中國發生外交摩擦機會，強勢介入拉攏周邊國家，重新樹立美國在亞洲的權勢與威望。尤其是北韓天安艦事件、和中國對南海的核心利益說，都激起美國強力介入區域的動作，增強美國與周邊國家拉攏的機會。2011年美國正式宣告「美國太平洋世紀」來到，完整的從經濟戰略、外交戰略、和軍事戰略推出積極作為。2012年1月美國因應在伊拉克撤軍的情況，宣布對亞洲軍事戰略進行調整！最重要的戰略意義是美國要如何面對強大的中國，重點係指向中國的軍事擴張。美國已經積極運用外交形勢與中國建立穩定的對話機制，透過協商與對話，尋求共同合作的基礎。針對美中之間的關係結構性轉變，到底會走向更多合作還是繼續競爭，再加上一些合作呢？美國軍事戰略轉變與部署，在亞太區域形成一強大的勢力網絡，拉攏與周邊國家的互利與深化互動，重要的是美中關係所呈現出的戰略競爭與雙方漸增的合作關係，會如何轉變為中美關係合作的框架？本計畫的重點項目。本計畫第一階段聚焦在中國對中美關係發展的重點觀察與分析。 Global financial tsunami has since 2008 challenged the existing global and regional orders. China was expected to take more responsibility by the international community. In coping with the unprecedented scale of challenge, China has been at the center of international financial relief. On the contrary, the supremacy of the United States has relatively declined as a result of the financial crisis at home. Under the broader context of power shift, the US-China relation is now entering into a complex situation. It is clear that more cooperation and consultation on international issues between the two are required. The United States is generating a new effort in Asia. President Obama made it clear in 2010 that the US is coming back to Asia! In 2011, the US indicated that it has come to the American Pacific Century. How does the US see the rise of China and a much powerful China today? The US is building more dialogue mechanism to work with China, but at the same time making the gesture much tougher in the region. In the South China Sea and the Southeast Asia, the US is beefing up its presence and effort by linking up with regional countries. It has resulted in strategic competition against China in the region. This paper is thus trying to examine the extent of fundamental change of the US-China relation over the past four years since the beginning of the global financial tsunami and of the Obama Presidency. Under the Obama Administration, a more cooperative approach toward China is desirable but at the same time the US is pushing back to Asia. It is a new challenge for the US and China to try to accommodate with each more. |
