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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54903


    Title: 金融發展與經濟成長 通貨膨脹的門檻效果
    The threshold effect of inflation on the relation between financial development and economic growth
    Authors: 李怡萱
    Contributors: 郭炳伸
    林信助
    李怡萱
    Keywords: 門檻迴歸模型
    通貨膨脹
    金融發展
    經濟成長
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2012-10-30 14:20:47 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文目的以門檻迴歸(threshold regression)方法，試分析台灣1965到2011年間銀行對民間放款總額(BL)、貨幣供給量(M2)、股市成交值(STV)等三大金融發展指標在面對不同通貨膨脹率時，與經濟成長間的關係是否會發生結構性的轉變。
    實證結果發現，支持金融發展與經濟成長之間存在門檻效果，並且以「通貨膨脹率」為門檻指標時，分別可找到兩到三個門檻值：以銀行放款為例，有兩個門檻值將觀測點分成三群，當通膨處於低通膨區(小於3.76%)，銀行放款的成長可促進經濟成長；若通膨率處於溫和通膨區(介於3.76%~5.58%)，估計係數將由正轉負；一旦到達高通膨區(高於5.58%)，通膨將加劇資訊不對稱的問題而影響放款者決策，進而對經濟成長造成顯著的負面影響。M2成長率不論通膨率的高低，皆能促進經濟成長。股市成交值成長率也是在低通膨區對經濟有正向效果，但通膨一旦高於門檻值(2.88%)，則轉為不顯著的負面效果。此外，在分析金融發展對經濟成長關係之議題時，本文經由Wald test驗證「通貨膨脹率」較傳統的時間門檻為較佳的門檻變數，其中又以銀行放款(BL)變數的通膨門檻效果最為顯著，大幅提升門檻迴歸模型的效率。
    Reference: Azariadis, C. and B. D. Smith (1996), “Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect,” Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3), 309–332.
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    Boyd, J. H., R. Levine, and B. D. Smith (2001), “The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 47(2), 221–248.
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    De Gregorio, J. and P. E. Guidotti (1995), “Financial Development and Economic Growth,” World Development, 23(3), 433–448.
    Diamond, D. W. and P. H. Dybvig (1983), “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,” Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), 401–419.
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    李建強(2006)，「銀行發展、股市發展與經濟成長— 臺灣的實證研究」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，36:2，77–113。
    李建強、洪福聲、黃柏農(2005)，「金融發展與經濟成長的關係會消失嗎?─門檻迴歸模型之應用」，《經濟研究》，41:1(2005), 45-74。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    99351012
    100
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099351012
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of International Business] Theses

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