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    题名: 全球暖化與台灣的氣候政治-以《溫室氣體減量法》為例
    Global warming and the politics of climate change in Taiwan
    作者: 施奕任
    Shih, Yijen
    贡献者: 葉俊榮
    王振寰
    Yeh, Jiunn Rong
    Wang, Jenn Hwan
    施奕任
    Shih, Yijen
    关键词: 氣候變遷
    溫室氣體減量法
    京都議定書
    氣候變化綱要公約
    能源稅條例
    再生能源發展條例
    環境政治
    發展型國家
    Climate Change
    Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act
    Kyoto Protocol
    United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
    Energy Tax Law
    Renewable Energy Development Law
    Environmental Politics
    Developmental State
    日期: 2011
    上传时间: 2012-10-30 11:46:57 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 隨著氣候變遷及其不利影響的科學證據日益明確，國際社會與主權國家從1980年代以來關懷思考如何因應氣候議題。台灣受限於特殊的國際地位，難以參與《氣候變遷綱要公約》與《京都議定書》為主的國際氣候談判，但是台灣如何因應氣候議題，對於國內與國際都具有重要性。對於國內而言，氣候變遷產生議題連結的效果，加劇環境退化現象，觸發極端氣候事件的頻率與程度，衝擊處於生態脆弱的台灣。對於國際而言，台灣屬於主要的排放溫室氣體國家，意謂台灣是否願意承諾積極的減排責任，對於全球氣候行動舉足輕重。然而，當台灣從2005年推動《溫室氣體減量法》的立法過程，卻採取消極的政治立場，不僅不願意建立積極的減量目標與期程，同時立法院也不願意通過該法以因應全球氣候倡議。本研究討論不同國家面對國際氣候行動採取各自的政治立場，台灣為何選擇消極的政治立場。
    在研究理論與方法上，本研究提出修正的利益解釋模型，該模型認為有兩個因素得以解釋國家因應國際環境倡議的立場。第一個因素是風險認知，其認為國家面對國際環境倡議的政治立場，考量國內民眾對於生態脆弱性的風險認知。第二個因素是考量污染減量經濟成本，國內決策者基於各自的成本與利益考量，在決策過程中彼此協商，形塑國家減量成本與利益盤算，當減量成本越低，則國家越傾向於支持國際環境行動，反之亦然。基於修正模型的假定，本研究利用不同的研究方法與資料，分析上述兩項因素。在風險認知面向，本研究利用中央研究院社會學研究所進行台灣社會變遷基本調查2010年六期一次問卷Ⅱ環境題組的實證資料進行統計分析。在減量成本面向，本研究就《溫室氣體減量法》立法過程涉及相關行為者進行深度訪談，透過質化分析理解不同行為者在決策過程的互動。
    在研究結果上，本研究發現在風險認知上，台灣民眾儘管認知氣候風險的嚴重性，但是考量氣候變遷的不利影響與後續因應都具有長期特性，降低民眾支持台灣採取積極的政治立場以因應氣候議題的意願。在減量成本上，因應氣候議題的決策形成一種姿態政治（gestural politics），儘管積極倡議台灣必須因應國際氣候議題，但是卻不願意制訂涵蓋積極減量目標與總量管制的《溫室氣體減量法》，其原因在於氣候決策嵌入能源與產業結構的挑戰。在能源結構上，台灣面對核能使用的政治爭議，加以再生能源短期難以巨幅成長，使得台灣仍然呈現以化石燃料為主的能源結構。在產業結構上，既有發展型國家的思維使得政治菁英傾向於強調發展的重要性，依賴高污染、高耗能與高排碳產業推動國家經濟發展，而難以透過調整能源價格等政治策略，改變依賴高排碳產業的產業結構。
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