政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/54761

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/54761

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54761

Title:	存貨揭露與銷售及盈餘預測：IFRS與非IFRS之比較 Do inventory disclosures predict sales and earnings: IFRS vs. Non-IFRS
Authors:	陳采薇 Chen, Tsai Wei
Contributors:	張清福 Chang, Ching Fu 陳采薇 Chen, Tsai Wei
Keywords:	存貨計價方法國際會計準則第二號公報銷售與盈餘預測 Inventory valuation method International Accounting Standard 2 Sales and earnings prediction
Date:	2011
Issue Date:	2012-10-30 11:43:26 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	文獻顯示存貨對於銷售和盈餘具有預測能力（Bernard and Noel 1991）。本文進一步探討比較後進先出法和國際會計準則允許之存貨計價方法所揭露之存貨，對於銷售和盈餘之預測能力。2003年發布之國際會計準則第二號公報「存貨」，禁止公司採用後進先出法衡量存貨，本研究擬觀察後進先出法和非後進先出法存貨對公司銷售與盈餘的預測能力是否有所差異。本研究選取採用後進先出法並且揭露後進先出存貨準備之公司做為樣本，計算出樣本公司在國際會計準則規定下應有之存貨水準，測試與比較後進先出法之存貨與依國際會計準則揭露之存貨，孰者對銷售與盈餘之預測更具攸關性。實證結果顯示，後進先出存貨與國際會計準則存貨代理變數之實證結果並不顯著，顯示存貨在銷售與盈餘之預測迴歸模型中為一雜訊，存貨對銷售和盈餘之預測並不具有增額資訊，也說明存貨生產平穩理論與避免缺貨理論無法解釋存貨對銷售和盈餘預測之關聯性，因此無法判斷採用何種存貨計價方法所揭露之存貨，對銷售與盈餘較具預測能力。 In economic literature, production smoothing model and stockout model address the predictability of inventory disclosure on sales and earnings. Based on these models, Bernard and Noel (1991) show that inventory disclosure predicts sales and earnings. This study further investigates and compares the predictability of the sales and earnings by inventory reported under last in, last out (LIFO) and that under International Accounting Standard 2 (IAS 2). Thus this study compares the predicting ability of inventory on sales and earnings under IFRS and non-IFRS. This study selects the companies adopting LIFO and disclosing LIFO reserve, calculates the inventory reported under IFRS, and determines the inventory’s ability to predict future sales and earnings under different inventory valuation methods. The empirical results show that the coefficients for the unexpected inventories under LIFO and IFRS are both statistically insignificant, suggesting that the unexpected inventories are merely noises in the models, and that the effects of production smoothing model and stockout model are not prevailed. Thus, it is difficult to determine which inventory valuation method can generate the inventory that leads to better sales and earnings prediction.
Reference:	Abarbanell, J., and B. Bushee. 1997. “Fundamental analysis, future earnings and stock prices.” Journal of Accounting Research 35 (1): 1–24. Aror, Shveta. 2011. “Grocery Retail: The Next Level of Inventory Management.” Retail Merchandiser 51(3): 26-28. Bar-Yosef, S, and P. K. Sen. 1992. "On Optimal Choice of Inventory Accounting Method.`` The Accounting Review (April): 320-36. Bernard, V. and Noel, J. 1991 “Do Inventory Disclosures Predict Sales and Earnings?” Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance (Spring):145-181. Bernard, V., and T. Stober. 1989. The nature and amount of information reflected in cash flows and accruals. The Accounting Review 64 (October): 624-652. Blinder, A. 1986 “Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Be Saved?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics (August): 431-453. Biddle, G. C., and Ricks, W. E. 1988. “Analyst forecast errors and stock price behavior near the earnings announcement dates of LIFO adopters.” Journal of Accounting Research, 26(2):169-194. Brown, Jeff. 2008/2009. “Consumer Driven Forecasting To Improve Inventory Flow: Brown Shoe Company’s Journey.” Journal of Business Forecasting 27 (Winter): 24-25. Cushing, B. E., and LeClere, M. J. 1992. “Evidence on the determinants of inventory accounting policy choice.” The Accounting Review 67(2): 355–366. Chi-Wen Jevons Lee. 1988. “Inventory accounting and earnings/price ratios: A puzzle” Contemporary Accounting Research 5 (Fall): 371-388. Foster, G. 1977 “Quarterly Accounting Data: Time-Series Properties and Predictive-Ability Results.” The Accounting Review (January): 1-21. Guenther, D. A., & Trombley, M. A. 1994. “The ’LIFO reserve’ and the value of the firm: Theory and empirical evidence.” Contemporary Accounting Research 10(2): 433–452. Gupta, Mahendra, Pevzner, Mikhail; Seethamraju, Chandra. 2010. “The Implications of Absorption Cost Accounting and Production Decisions for Future Firm Performance and Valuation.” Contemporary Accounting Research 27 (Fall): 889-922. Guido Lorenzoni 2006. “A Theory of Demand Shocks.” MIT Economics. Hand, J. 1993. “Resolving LIFO Uncertainty; A Theoretical and Empirical Reexamination of 1974-75 LIFO Adoption and Nonadoptions.” Journal of Accounting Research 31 (Spring): 21-49. Hughes, P. J., Schwartz, E. S., Fellingham, J. & Thakor, A. V. 1994. “Continuous signaling within partitions: Capital structure and the FIFO/LIFO choice.” Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 9(1): 1–19. International Accounting Standard 2 “Inventories.” International Accounting Standards Board. Jennings, R., Mest, D. P., and Thompson, R. B. II. 1992. “Investor reaction to disclosures on 1974–75 LIFO adoption decisions.” The Accounting Review 67(2): 337–354. Jennings, R., Simko, J. P. and Thompson, R.B. II. 1996. “Does LIFO Inventory Accounting Improve the Income Statement at the Expense of the Balance Sheet?” Journal of Accounting Research, 34(1) (Spring): 85-109. Kang, S.-H. 1993. “A conceptual framework for the stock price effects of LIFO tax benefits.” Journal of Accounting Research 31(1): 50–61. Kahn, J. 1987. “Inventories and the Volatility of Production.” The American Economic Review (September): 667-679. Lev, B., and R. Thiagarajan. 1993. “Fundamental information analysis.” Journal of Accounting Research 31 (3): 190–215. Thomas, J., and H. Zhang. 2003. “Inventory changes and future returns.” Review of Accounting Studies 7 (2–3): 163–87.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學會計研究所 99353004 100
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0993530041
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Accounting] Theses

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