| Abstract: | 長期以來，不動產估價的相關研究皆著重在估價理論與技術的改進，以使最後估值能更為精確。然而實際上，估價人員的行為才是影響價格評定的本質因素；尤其國內、外對於市場比較法的相關研究，皆發現估價人員有偏離理論規範的情況。過去文獻對於估價系統性偏誤的解釋少有測試，雖然多半利用行為論點來做說明，但幾乎都是以實驗或意見調查方式加以分析，而非實證結果(Yiu et. al., 2006)。因此，本研究第一年將分析估價人員面對正常市場與拍賣市場是否有主、客觀不一致情形；繼而建立客觀標準化模型，進行市場比較法之估價行為比較，分析估價師個別估價與標準化模型之差異。目前最常使用的市場比較法，於估價過程的價格調整、案例的選取、權重的設定等均欠缺一致性與科學性。為分析估價師個別估價行為之差異，本研究第二年將從市場比較法觀點，建立符合估價師行為之客觀標準化估價模型；再者，延伸特徵價格模型，應用份量迴歸分析特定解釋變數在不同價格份量的邊際效果，並分析價格預測的準確度情況。為提升客觀估價方法在實務上的應用性，以客觀標準化估價模型建立大量估價模型有其重要性。此外，目前估價僅估計單一價格，然而不動產估價應估計最可能價格，所推估出之價格呈現應是一段區間。所以，本研究第三年將繼續測試客觀估價模型重複實驗的精確度，利用蒙地卡羅模擬方式建立大量估價模型，分析價格評估結果之可能發生機率與可信度，以建立不動產估值區間與價格機率
Over a long period of time, the researches related to real estate appraisal focus on the improvement of appraisal theory and technique in order to make the final estimate value more precise. However, in fact, the appraiser』s behavior is the essential factor affecting the price evaluation. Especially, both foreign and domestic researches regarding the market comparative approach discover that the appraisal behavior has diverged from the theory and codes. The explanations for systemic bias of appraisal have rarely been tested, especially the contention of behavior used to explain the systemic bias has almost been analyzed through experiments or investigations rather than empirical results (Yiu et. al., 2006). Therefore, in the first year, we will try to analyze the appraisal behavior faced the normal and auction market to find out if there is any inconsistent between subjective and objective estimate values. Subsequently, the objective standardized model will be established and compared with the individual appraisal behavior according to market comparative approach in order to analyze the difference between them. At present, the market comparative approach used most constantly is deficient in consistence and scientific nature in the process of the adjustment of appraising values, the selection of comparable cases, and the setting of weights. In order to analyze the diverseness of individual appraisal behavior, in the second year, we will establish the objective standardized model in accordance with appraisal behaviors in terms of the market comparative approach. Furthermore, the hedonic price model will be extended through the application of quantile regression for analyzing the marginal effects of specific independent variables on different quantile prices as well as the accuracy of price prediction. For the purpose of advancing the applicability of objective appraisal approach, it is important to establish the mass appraisal model on the basis of the objective standardized model. In addition, the appraising value is a single price at present; however, what should be appraised is the most possible price represented by the interval of prices. Hence, in the third year, we will continue to test the accuracy of the objective appraisal model by repeating experiments, build the mass appraisal model through the Monte Carlo simulation method as well as analyze the probabilities of occurrence and the degrees of confidence of the appraising prices for establishing the intervals of the real estate appraising prices and its corresponding probabilities |
