| Abstract: | 很明顯地，氣候變遷不是危言聳聽，而是正在發生的事實。而農業部門則是首當其衝。近年來全球各地極端氣候導致農業產出大幅減少的新聞層出不窮，尤其是在開發中國家—由於缺乏調適(adaptation)因應之資源，開發中國家也最容易受到氣候變遷負面影響。海平面上升可能導致沿海土地遭致海水淹沒，而亞洲開發中國家(如：越南、孟加拉)之主要糧食作物— 稻米—大多種植於沿海農地。因缺乏資金築建灌溉設施以及開發農藝技術(agronomic technology)，溫度及降雨量的急遽變化有可能導致開發中國家之作物產出率(crop yield)的下降而使得糧食產量減少。此外，近年來生質燃料已在全球多數國家引發熱潮，尤其是穀類作物之主要出口國(如：美國、歐盟國家)，生質燃料的發展可能導致「與糧爭地」，進而推高國際糧食價格，而這將可能對倚賴進口糧食的開發中國家之糧食安全問題雪上加霜。本研究擬建構一考量農地區位(agro-ecological zoning)及作物適種性(crop suitability)之全球多區域、多部門可計算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium, CGE)以模擬氣候變遷所引發之海平面上升及溫度降雨量變化可能導致之作物生產變動以及歐美主要糧食作物出口國之生質燃料發展政策對於亞洲開發中國家之糧食安全問題的經濟衝擊。此外，我們也將建構台灣之單一區域可計算一般均衡模型，並與全球多區域可以算一般均衡模型連結，來模擬糧食自給率甚低的台灣面對國際糧食市場之變化(如：糧食進口國之需求變動、糧食出口國之供給變動、國際糧價)所可能衍生的經濟衝擊。
Unwelcomely, climate change is happening, and the agriculture sector appears to bear the brunt of it across the globe. Events of extreme weather in recent years have seen dramatic drop in agricultural production, particularly in developing countries—which are susceptible to climate impact due to lack of capacity for adaptation. Sea level rise may bring about loss of coastal land, on which most Asian developing countries, such as Viet Nam and Bangladesh, cultivate their staple food, rice. Abrupt temperature and precipitation change may affect crop yield, in which front developing countries tend to run short of leverage with insufficient irrigation infrastructure and agronomic technology. The global biofuel boom in the recent years—especially major crop exporting countries like U.S.—could further aggravate food security of the developing countries. South Asia, which includes India and Bangladesh, produces a quarter of world processed rice. China and Japan follow South Asia closely in rice production. At the same time, South Asia is also the 2nd largest exporter of processed rice, taking a share of 22.4%. Thailand and Viet Nam together provide almost half of the world’s import need of processed rice. Paddy rice is normally grown in coastal or low-lying area of the Asian countries, and its production is quite sensitive to temperature change and water availability. Once the climate change induced sea level rise and crop productivity change strike these regions, it could bring profound impact in these regions, as well as their trading partners, in particular, of food. North America and EU 27 export more than half of the world’s import need of wheat and other cereal grains. Noteworthy is that EU and U.S.A. are the most enthusiastic countries in pursuing biofuel development, and they domestically provide various support policies towards biofuel. Competition of biofuel for land against food may result in less export of grains for food purposes. Among the importer of North American and European grains are Asian developing countries. As such, the biofuel zeal in the western hemisphere may have a far reaching effect via the channel of trade on Asia. In this study, we attempt to build a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model—which also considers crop suitability and agro-ecological characteristics—to analyze the direct climate-change impact (i.e., sea level rise, and temperature/precipitation change induced crop yield change), and the indirect impact (i.e., the global biofuel boom) on Asian developing countries. Additionally, Taiwan, with a low self-sufficiency rate in food, is also among the countries into which we are going to investigate the climate impact. For the Taiwan economy, we would like to build a single-region CGE model, and link it with the multi-region CGE model, such that the Taiwan economy as in the single-region model would feel changes occurred in the international markets as in the multi-region model. |
