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    Title: 台北都會區空間發展型態變遷趨勢與原因之研究
    A study on the trend and causes of spatial development pattern change in the Taipei Metropolitan Area
    Authors: 徐國城
    Hsu, Kuo Cheng
    Contributors: 賴宗裕
    Lai, Tsung Yu
    徐國城
    Hsu, Kuo Cheng
    Keywords: 空間發展型態
    都市蔓延
    蔓延指數
    發展趨勢地域
    成長管理
    spatial development pattern
    urban sprawl
    sprawl indices
    development trend region
    growth management
    Date: 2010
    Issue Date: 2011-10-14 13:42:14 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 台北都會區在人口與產業成長帶動之土地需求,加以市中心高房價壓力之影響下,郊區化現象儼然成型。然而,此過程若欠缺發展區位調控與土地使用效率之考量,將容易形塑出低密度、破碎化與蛙躍的空間蔓延發展型態,而導致都市機能、土地使用、交通運輸、公部門財政與環境等層面之負面衝擊。緣此,本研究旨在探討台北都會區郊區化的演變過程中,空間發展型態之變遷特徵與趨勢,確認其是否出現蔓延發展現象,並剖析其空間地景結構之形塑原因,最後研提都會區空間發展型態之再結構機制,期能作為相關主管機關進行都會區發展政策、區域計畫或都市計畫通盤檢討,以及縣市綜合發展計畫研擬之參考。
    據此,本研究首先藉由衛星影像圖資與地理資訊系統的輔助,以發展密度與地景生態指數之整合評估途徑,建構台北都會區空間發展型態的衡量模式,透過1991、2001與2006年都會區蔓延指數之編製與解讀,分析15年間的空間發展型態變遷趨勢與特徵;其次,建立影響都會區空間發展型態演變之因素評估體系,運用模糊德爾菲法、複迴歸模型與多項羅吉特模型,剖析都會區發展樣貌變化之形塑原因;並據以研提台北都會區空間發展型態之再結構機制。透過此研究脈絡之探討,獲得之發現與重要結論,茲分述如下。
    一、台北都會區在15年間的平均蔓延指數上升了6.83%,且在郊區化過程中,呈現反向發展路徑之蔓延與緊密空間型態趨向,其中,蔓延發展路徑由台北市東側、南側之內湖區、南港區與文山區為起點,往東擴張至汐止市、基隆市與瑞芳鎮,往南擴張至新店市;緊密發展路徑則由都會區西側之鶯歌鎮、樹林市、泰山鄉與林口鎮等地區與桃園縣相接連,另由台北市北側的士林區與北投區擴張至北邊之八里鄉、淡水鎮、三芝鄉、萬里鄉與金山鄉等地區。
    二、根據複迴歸模型之校估結果,計有7項因素對台北都會區在1991至2006年間的整體空間發展型態演變造成顯著影響。其中,「平均房價變化率」、「由地方政府審議的非都市土地變更案面積之成長率」、「與都會區發展中心的距離」、「火車站個數」與「快速道路匝道或高速公路交流道個數之成長率」對於整體空間之蔓延發展趨勢造成正向影響;「捷運場站個數」則對於整體空間之蔓延發展趨勢造成負向影響。
    三、綜結台北都會區空間發展型態演變特徵,可歸納出四類相異發展趨勢地域。進一步由多項羅吉特模型之校估結果可發現,「人口變化率」對「發展飽和且無顯著變化之中心地域」的形塑具有顯著負向影響,「捷運場站個數」與「已開闢之公園綠地面積成長率」則對其具有正向顯著影響;「人口變化率」與「捷運場站個數」對「發展變動明顯之趨向緊密地域」具有顯著正向影響;「由地方政府審議之非都市土地變更案面積成長率」、「快速道路匝道或高速公路交流道個數成長率」與「重大公共建設計畫面積成長率」對「發展變動明顯之趨向蔓延地域」之形塑產生顯著正向影響,「與都會區發展中心的距離」則對其具有顯著負向影響;
    四、綜結台北都會區空間發展型態演變的特徵與造成原因,本研究在落實成長管理理念之原則下,研擬空間發展型態之再結構機制,在「集約、適居之台北都會區空間發展機制」的願景下,提出社會經濟產業效率成長、土地資源合理配置、空間區位調和發展、交通運輸與土地使用整合、公共投資建設合理規劃等五大發展面向,並據以研擬12項落實策略與26項行動方案。可供作相關主管機關進行區域計畫、都市計畫通盤檢討、縣市綜合發展計畫與土地使用管制規範調整之參考。
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