政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/49596

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/49596

English | 正體中文 | 简体中文 | Post-Print筆數 : 27 | 全文笔数/总笔数 : 113451/144438 (79%)
造访人次 : 51309081 在线人数 : 888

RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.

搜寻范围

查询小技巧：

您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果

若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据

进阶搜寻

主页 ‧ 登入 ‧ 上传 ‧ 说明 ‧ 关于政大典藏 ‧ 管理

到手机版

政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/49596

请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49596

题名:	台灣地區自殺企圖者之重複自殺企圖次數統計模型探討
作者:	王文華
贡献者:	江振東王文華
关键词:	自殺企圖自殺率卜瓦松分配廣義卜瓦松分配 Zero-inflated分配 Suicide attempt Suicide rate Poisson distribution Generalized Poisson distribution Zero-inflated distribution
日期:	2008
上传时间:	2010-12-08 14:48:46 (UTC+8)
摘要:	世界衛生組織表示「先前有過自殺行為的人，再度自殺的機率比一般人高」，因此如何針對自殺企圖者提供即時的關懷與介入服務，是世界各國重要的自殺防治策略之一。本研究希望針對曾有過自殺企圖的個案，經由統計模型的配適來找出自殺企圖個案的「自殺危險因子」，區別出再度自殺的高危險個案，以方便將人力及醫療資源投入到最需要被協助的個案上。本研究的反應變項為「重複自殺企圖次數」，但是由於資料中「零值」的人數相當多，此外也呈現出變異數大於平均數的現象，因此我們採用可以同時處理Zero-inflated及Over-dispersion情況的廣義Zero-inflated卜瓦松迴歸模型 (Generalized Zero-inflated Poisson Regression Model)來進行資料的配適。我們得知重複自殺企圖之高風險因子有「65歲以上」、「曾患有精神疾病」、「不確定是否曾患有精神疾病」及「離婚」之個案，而「治癒」可能性較高的因子為「45~64歲」、「因情感因素自殺」、「已婚」之個案。藉由模型也可以進一步估計自殺企圖個案之再企圖機率，並且對自殺企圖個案進行分層，以進行不同程度的關懷與訪視，藉以提昇關懷的即時性及有效性。 World Health Organization (WHO) has indicated that suicide attempt rate is much higher among those who have ever had suicide attempts. Hence, how to express concerns and provide timely consultations for suicide reattempters has become one of the key issues in suicide prevention. In this study, we try to identify the risk factors associated with suicide reattempters, and predict high-risk cases so that the limited resources can be distributed effectively. The primary variable of interest is the number of repeated suicide attempt for a suicide attempter after his/her index attempt. However, there are more zeros and greater variability in the data than that would be predicted by a Poisson model. We hence fit the data using a zero-inflated generalized Poisson regression model, a model that is frequently used for modeling over-dispersed count data with too many zeros. We find that the risk factors for repeated suicide attempts are those who are 65 or older, those who are classified as psychiatric disorders and those diagnostically uncertain cases, and those who are divorced. We also find that non-repeaters are more likely among those who are between 45 to 65 of age, married, and having a suicide attempt history due to an emotional reason. Through the use of the model, we can also estimate a subject’s reattempt probability, classify them, and provide them with suitable care and attention accordingly.
參考文獻:	行政院經濟建設委員會網站，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/。行政院衛生署自殺防治中心網站，http://www.tspc.doh.gov.tw/tspc/portal/index/。法鼓山人文社會基金會【你可以不必自殺】網站，http://www.no-suicide-no.com/。財團法人董氏基金會【自殺防治網】，http://www.jtf.org.tw/suicide_prevention/。 Böhning, D. (1998) “ Zero-Inflated Poisson Models and C.A.MAN: A Tutorial Collection of Evidence, ” Biometrical Journal, 7: 833-843. Cameron, A. C. , and Trivedi P. K. (2005) icroeconometrics: methods and applications, Cambridge University Press. Consul , P. C. (1989) Generalized Poisson distribution, Marcel Dekker, Inc. Consul, P.C. ,and Jain, G.C. (1970) “ On the eneralization of Poisson distribution,”Annals of Mathematical tatistics, 41:1387. Cox, D. R. (1983) “ Some remarks on over-dispersion,” Biometrika, 70: 269-274. Czado, C. , Erhardt, V. , Min, A. ,and Wagner, S. (2007) “ Zero-inflated generalized Poisson models with regression effects on the mean, dispersion and zero-inflation level applied to patent outsourcing rates,” Statistical Modelling, 7:125-153. Deng, D. , and Paul, S. R. (2005) “ Score tests for zero-inflation and over-dispersion in generalized linear models,” Statistica Sinica, 15: 257-276. Famoye, F. , and Singh, K.P. (2003) “ On inflated generalized Poisson regression models,” Advances and Applications in Statistics, 3: 145–58. Famoye, F. , and Wang, W. (2004) “ Censored Generalized Poisson Regression Model,” Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 46: 547-560. Famoye, F. , and Wulu, J. T. , Jr. , and Singh, K. P. (2004) “ On the generalized Poisson regression model with an application to accident data,” Journal of Data Science, 2:287-295. Gupta, P. L. , Gupta, R. C. , and Tripathi, R. C. (1996) “ Analysis of zero-adjusted count data, “ Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 23: 207-218. Jessen, G. , Jensen, B. F. , Arensman, E. , Bille-Brahe, U. , Crepet P. , De Leo, D., Hawton, K. , Haring, C. , Hjelmeland, H. , Michel, K. , Ostamo, A. , Salander- Renberg, E. , Schmidtke, A. , Temesvary, B. , and Wasserman, D. (1999) “ Attempted suicide and major public holidays in Europe: finding from the WHO/ EURO Multicentre Study on Parasuicide,” Acta Psychiatr Scand, 99: 412-418. Lambert, D. (1992) “ Zero-inflated Poisson regression, with an application to defects in manufacturing,” Technometrics, 34:1-14. Morrell, S. , Taylor, R. , Slaytor, E. , and Ford, P. (1999) “ Urban and rural suicide differentials in migrants and the Australian-born, New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994,” Social Science & Medicine, 49: 81-91. Mullahy, J. (1986) “ Specification and testing of some modified count data models,” Journal of Econometrics, 33: 341-365. Pirkis, J. , Burgess, P. , and Jolley, D. (1999) “ Suicide attempts by psychiatric patients in acute inpatient, long-stay inpatient and community care,” Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol, 34: 634-644. World Health Organization (WHO) website, http://www.who.int/en/. Zeileis, A. , Kleiber, C. , and Jackman, S. (2008) “ Regression Models for Count Data in R,” Journal of Statistical Software, 27.
描述:	碩士國立政治大學統計研究所 96354001 97
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096354001
数据类型:	thesis
显示于类别:	[統計學系] 學位論文

文件中的档案:

档案	描述	大小	格式	浏览次数
400101.pdf		223Kb	Adobe PDF2	1185	检视/开启
400102.pdf		265Kb	Adobe PDF2	894	检视/开启
400103.pdf		294Kb	Adobe PDF2	972	检视/开启
400104.pdf		299Kb	Adobe PDF2	1279	检视/开启
400105.pdf		368Kb	Adobe PDF2	1898	检视/开启
400106.pdf		370Kb	Adobe PDF2	19379	检视/开启
400107.pdf		371Kb	Adobe PDF2	1414	检视/开启
400108.pdf		335Kb	Adobe PDF2	980	检视/开启
400109.pdf		345Kb	Adobe PDF2	1140	检视/开启
400110.pdf		289Kb	Adobe PDF2	1082	检视/开启
400111.pdf		425Kb	Adobe PDF2	1039	检视/开启

在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

社群 sharing

著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement

1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.

DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004 MIT & Hewlett-Packard / Enhanced by NTU Library IR team Copyright © - 回馈