| Abstract: | Durkheim主張,社會學的研究題材就是社會事實,所以,排除其他『非社會事實』的事物作為社會學研究對象---其中,氣候與季節因素就是Durkheim所反對者。然而,眾多的人類之社會行為展現季節變化模式,而且,自然季節變化往往也被賦予文化意義和社會價值。職是之故,人類的社會行為之季節性模式,可以也應該被納入成為重要的社會學研究題材。本研究的主旨,就是探討生命事件的季節性變化(Seasonality)。「生命事件」(Vital events),主要包括出生、死亡、結婚及離婚,乃是最為根本、重要的人口動力成份。在幾乎所有的社會裡,不論古代或是當代,或多或少都發現生命事件呈現季節性變化模式。自然的季節韻律,之所以影響生命事件發生頻率,乃是因為自然的季節韻律透過對於人類生理機能、文化、宗教、經濟生產活動等中介機制,轉而左右生命事件發生的時間選擇。本研究以臺灣地區整體作為對象,長期地以本世紀之人口動態統計資料作為基礎,探討其季節性變化模式。具體而言,本研究的目的乃是檢視和分解生命事件之發生時間分佈的季節性(Seasonal)效應,探討影響生命事件發生時間展現季節性模式的原因。
The evidence for seasonality in human behavior is scattered throughout the scientific traditions and has been observed in virtually all human populations, both contemporary and historical. These seasonal variations have attracted considerable attention from demographers, and a variety of behavioral, biological, and demographic mechanisms have been proposed to explain them. In this study we examine the seasonality of vital events in Taiwan. Vital events, including birth, death, marriage, and divorce, are the fundamental components of demographic dynamics. Existing literature provides estimates of seasonality of vital events for many countries and time periods, but differing methodologies and the frequent use of small sample periods makes comparisons across populations difficult. Moreover, seasonal variation in vital events must be connected with the specific cultural and social life of a given population. Therefore, it necessitates to widely examine patterns of seasonality in diverse populations. Taiwan provides an ideal case to study the seasonal regularity of vital events, for it has compiled a long-term period of vital registration. Based on the preliminary analyses, we believe that it demonstrates a clear and non-negligible seasonal fluctuation of births, deaths, marriages, and divorces in Taiwan. However, the seasonal patterning of vital events in Taiwan should be examined in depth. The specific objectives of this study are: (1) to construct a seasonal patterning for various vital events based on solar and lunar calendar respectively; (2) to decompose the component of seasonality, the component of trend, and the nonseasonal, nontrend component of temporal regularity of vital events; (3) to explore the plausible explanations of seasonality of vital events in Taiwan. |
