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| Title: | 台灣職業棒球之「市場法則—球隊效率與存活
Taiwanese professional baseball’s “the rules of the market” - the team efficiency and survival |
| Authors: | 陳信宏 |
| Contributors: | 陳國樑
陳信宏 |
| Keywords: | 職業棒球
DEA效率分析
績效分析
Tobit迴歸分析
存活分析 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| Issue Date: | 2010-12-08 02:02:32 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究利用DEA的效率衡量工具，分析球隊可能的解散因素，推論台灣職業棒球之市場機制。根據效率估計的結果約略可將台灣職業棒球二十年的發展分成三個時點，1990年至1997年—第一次簽賭爆發前：效率值呈現遞減的現象；1998年至2002年—兩聯盟共存期：多數的球隊呈現經營績效不佳；2003年至2009年—兩聯盟合併後時期：球隊普遍的經營績效均拉升。
Tobit迴歸分析結果顯示兩聯盟共存對經營績效有負向影響，二軍制度則對球隊的經營績效有正向影響，但令人訝異的是觀眾數對經營績效有負向的影響。存活分析結果推論觀眾數、球隊經營績效為影響球隊存續最重要的兩個因素。資料比對的結果符合上述Tobit迴歸及存活分析之結論，強化在DEA、Tobit、存活分析的推論結果。總而言之，台灣職業棒球市場經營機制尚未健全，本研究將其稱為「半人為市場機制」。台灣職棒必須進行改革，避免非市場因素介入市場運作，台灣棒球產業的未來才有發展性。
關鍵字：職業棒球、DEA效率分析、績效分析、Tobit迴歸分析、存活分析
In this study, we use DEA efficiency measurement as a tool to analyze the survival of teams in the Taiwanese professional baseball market. According to the efficiency measurement results, one can divide the development of the Taiwanese professional baseball teams in the last twenty years into the following three periods: first, from 1990 to 1997—the outbreak of the first gambling scandal, overall efficiency performance was falling; second, from 1998 to 2002—when two professional leagues coexisted, overall efficiency performance was at the lowest; third, from 2003 to 2009—after two leagues were merged, significant improvement in terms of efficiency performance was observed.
Tobit regression results suggest that the coexistence of two professional leagues has negative impact to the efficiency performance of teams while the introduction of the minor league system has positive impact to the efficiency performance. Surprisingly, the number of audience who attended baseball games has negative effect on the efficiency performance. The results from survival analysis identified the number of audience who attended baseball games and efficiency performance are the two main factors for the survival of a baseball team. A detailed data analysis confirms the Tobit regression and survival study results. In general, the market mechanism is yet well-developed. Non-market factors often affect the development of baseball teams and their survival. Drastic reforms and changes are required for the future development of the professional baseball market.
Keywords: Professional Baseball, DEA Efficiency Analysis, Performance Analysis,
Tobit Regression Analysis, Survival Analysis |
| Reference: | 一、中文文獻
江志坤 (1994)，「時報鷹職業棒球隊員績效評估之研究-資料包絡分析」，國立中山大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
陳天賜 (2002)，「台灣職業棒球隊績效評估之研究-應用資料包絡分析法」，華泰
文化。
林文斌 (2003)，「中華職棒大聯盟球團經營管理評析」，方圓文化。
吳佳芳 (2003)，「職業棒球隊之經營效率比較」，國立中正大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。
卓筱婷 (2005)，「中華職棒聯盟生產效率分析:考量中間產出之DEA模型」，國立
政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
游秉睿 (2006)，「我國職棒球隊績效評估：兩階段資料包絡分析法之應用」，國
立中山大學公共事務管理研究所碩士論文。
林閔 (2002)，「美國職棒大聯盟球隊經營管理效率分析」，東吳大學經濟學系碩
士論文。
王禹斌 (2005)，「美國職棒大聯盟球隊之技術效率分析」，國立中正大學國際經
濟研究所碩士論文。
黃正銘 (2008)，「以資料包絡分析法分解球隊與球隊類型效率」，國立東華大學
國際企業研究所碩士論文。
李明倫 (2009)，「台灣雞首世界牛尾之職棒野手績效評比:三階段System DEA之
應用」，東海大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
孫遜 (2004)，「資料包絡分析法 : 理論與應用」，揚智文化。
二、英文文獻
Farrell, M. J. (1957), The Measurement of Productive Efficiency, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), Vol. 120 (3), 253–281.
Cox, D. R. (1972), Regression Models and Life–Tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), Vol. 34(2), 187–220.
Charnes, A., W. W. Cooper and E. Rhodes (1978), Measuring the Efficiency of Decision Making Units, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 2, 429–444.
Banker, R. D., A. Charnes and W. W. Cooper (1984), Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis, Management Science, Vol. 30 (9), 1078–1092.
Gerald, W. S. (1994), Managerial Efficiency and Survivability in Professional Team Sports, Managerial and Decision Economics, Vol. 15, 403–411.
Lewis, H. F.and T. R. Sexton (2003), Two Stage DEA：An Application to Major Leagure Baseball, Journal of Productivity Analysis, Vol. 19, 227–249.
Einolf, K. W. (2004), Is Winning Everything? : A Data Envelopment Analysis of Major League Baseball and the National Football League, Journal of Sports Economics, Vol. 5(2), 127–151.
Lewis, H. F. and T. R. Sexton (2004), Data Envelopment Analysis with Reverse Inputs and Outputs, Journal of Productivity Analysis, Vol. 21, 113–132.
Volz, B. (2008), Efficient Production of Wins in Major League Baseball, Department of Economics Working Paper Series, University of Connecticut.
Volz, B. (2008), Minority Status and Managerial Survival in Major League Baseball, Department of Economics Working Paper Series, University of Connecticut. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
97255028
98 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097255028 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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