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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/3889


    Title: 行為財務學與行為會計學整合型計畫－子計畫九：領導型/從眾型分析師過度自信現象之研究
    Authors: 金成隆;林修葳
    Keywords: 領導型 (從眾型)分析師;經驗;學習;過度自信
    Lead (follower) analysts;Experience;Learning;Overconfidence
    Date: 2003
    Issue Date: 2007-04-18 16:37:28 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 臺北市：國立政治大學會計學系
    Abstract: 1.1 中文分析師主要在提供分析報告，包括盈餘預測與股票推薦，在資本市場上扮演了重要的資訊中介角色，然而領導型與從眾型分析師的預測或推薦所引起之價格變動卻有顯著之不同，因此本研究主要在探討 (1)形成領導型與從眾型分析師區別的主要因素為何 ?(經驗與努力 )。 (2)分析師過度自信之行為，在何種情況下會使分析師產生過度自信 ?領導型分析師是否比其他分析師 (從眾型 )更會過度自信。以及 (3)分析師過度自信對於續後分析師類型之影響，是否過去預測或是推薦績效愈佳的分析師，維持或是晉升為領導型分析師的機會愈大。實證結果發現： (1) 成為領導型分析師的機率與努力程度成負相關，也就是當分析師報導的家數愈多時其愈可能成為領導型分析師，可能的原因是分析師本身所具有的能力或天賦，其天賦愈高，使其有能力同時分析報導多家公司而成為領導型分析師。 (2) 一般經驗和分析特定公司之特殊經驗與成為領導型分析師的機率成正相關且顯著，而且經驗變數呈非線性關係，當經驗累積到一定程度後，成為領導型分析師的機率會逐漸遞減。 (3)過去預測愈佳者的分析師，其預測誤差或偏離共識預測程度愈大。此外領導型分析師其過去預測愈佳者之偏離程度更大，符合過度自信假說。 (4)過度預測績效愈佳的分析師，其維持或是晉升為領導型分析師的機會愈大，且分析師愈努力或分析師所屬券商為大規模者，維持或是晉升為領導型分析師的機會愈大。分析師的一般經驗與特殊經驗愈多者，晉升為領導型分析師的機會愈大，且此一機率成邊減率增加。
    In 1991, Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) required inclusion of management earnings forecasts (MEF) by issuers of all initial public offering (IPO) in prospectuses filed with the TSE . This study explores the association between the 1991 MEF regulation and the IPO anomalies, including positive abnormal returns accompanying the IPOs and the subsequent price reversals. Specifically, we partition our IPO observations during the test period based on the existence and the type of management forecasts. Our results support the notion that MEF regulations help mitigating both information asymmetry and investors？？ over-reaction. First, the post-1991 IPOs are significantly less under-priced. Second, consistent with the cheap talk hypothesis, the pre-1991 IPOs with voluntary earnings forecasts appear to be subject to greater under-pricing as opposed to the observations without management forecasts. Third, the magnitude of subsequent price reversal appears to be greater (less) for the pre- (post-) 1991 IPOs. Fourth, the duration of the under-pricing period for the post-1991 (pre-1991) IPOs appears to be longer (shorter). On the other hand, the duration of the under-pricing period for the pre-1991 IPOs with (with no) voluntary disclosures appears to be longer (shorter).
    Description: 核定金額：369300元
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[會計學系] 國科會研究計畫

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