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    题名: 貨幣政策操作目標之選擇與法則： 政策透明度及央行行為對小型開放經濟體之影響
    Monetary policy rules and operation targets: the effects of the central bank policy transparency and the central bank behavior
    作者: 蔡岳昆
    Tsai, Yueh Kun
    贡献者: 許振明
    林建秀
    Hsu, Chen Min
    Lin, Chien Hsiu
    蔡岳昆
    Tsai, Yueh Kun
    关键词: 央行
    貨幣政策目標
    利率法則
    政策透明度
    資訊透明度
    動態一般均衡模型
    新凱因斯模型
    central bank
    interest rate rule targeting
    monetary policy transparency
    DSGE
    dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
    New Keynesian model
    日期: 2008
    上传时间: 2009-09-18 20:17:02 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 中央銀行政策透明度影響總體經濟的議題在近日漸受重視。以美國為例，2008年房貸嚴重違約，高順位債權受到波及，使多數金融業產生營運危機，讓聯邦準備銀行 (Fed) 政策執行受到關注。晚近貨幣當局的政策透明度漸受重視。貨幣政策應如何選定才能使總體經濟達到較高的社會福利？Cukierman在2002年指出中央銀行的透明度低易造成較高的物價膨脹。本研究以動態一般性均衡模型 (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) ，建構新凱因斯小型開放總體模型。模型內含一定程度的價格僵固，並且擁有前瞻預期 (forward looking) 及後顧預期 (backward looking) 兩種型態的廠商存在其中。再採用貝氏方法估計台灣在該模型所應採用的參數後，並嘗試對體系內多個部門投入衝擊，然後檢視央行的政策透明度對總體經濟的影響，同時驗證是否支持Cukierman的結論。本研究印證Cukierman的結論，發現央行在操作貨幣政策面臨兩難時，不應採取透明度低的政策法則，而應優先針對物價的不穩定做出因應對策。
    Recently, people pay attention to central bank’s policy transparency, and most countries’ central banks have accepted the suggestion made by the Bank for International Settlements to adopt transparent monetary policy. Cukierman (2002) concluded that if the central bank’s policy was not transparency, it would cause higher inflation. The thesis will utilizes dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with New Keynesian concept proposed by Gali and Monacelli (2005) to analyze the effects of transparent monetary policy and to classify the macroeconomic different effects between transparent and hazy monetary policy. The conclusions support that higher monetary policy transparency will reduce social welfare loss, lower the volatility of inflation and output gap.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    金融研究所
    95352016
    97
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095352016
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[金融學系] 學位論文

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