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https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36942
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| Title: | 企業信用模型建置與驗證—使用乏析應變數以塑化業及食品業為例 |
| Authors: | 鐘冠智 |
| Contributors: | 劉文卿
鐘冠智 |
| Keywords: | 模糊數
企業信用模型
財務比率
Fuzzy number
Enterprise credit model
Financial ratios |
| Date: | 2008 |
| Issue Date: | 2009-09-18 20:14:02 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 台灣上市公司不預警地宣布重整，跳票、全額交割或下市，造成投資大眾的損失，因此，必須建立企業信用模型來偵測其經營狀況。本研究發現財務比率自企業危機前五年起逐漸惡化，表示財務比率在危機發生前有惡化現象，另外危機發生後幾年財務比率仍有影響，故本研究視企業危機為一逐年遞增或遞減的變數，使用模糊數轉化，加入危機發生前後的總體變數，並且結合統計多變量分析和資料探勘中的乏析理論建立模型，使用窮舉法找出解釋力最佳之企業信用模型，結果顯示，採用模糊數轉化之應變數相當顯著。
The listed companies in Taiwan suddenly announced restructuring, bankruptcy or out of stock, and their investors lost a lot. Therefore, we must set up the enterprise credit model to detect and examine their management states. We discover that the financial ratios decrease gradually since the past five years of enterprise`s crisis. Besides, financial ratios still diminish after the crisis take place. Therefore, this research regards enterprise`s crisis as one parameter, and we transform the parameter by fuzzy numbers. In addition, we use the macro economical parameters and combine multivariate analysis and fuzzy logic theory to find out a higher significant model. The result shows it is high significant to adopt the fuzzy number dependent variable. |
| Reference: | 中文文獻
林文修，1996，演化式類神經網路為基底的企業危機診斷模型：智慧資本之應用，第一屆台灣資管博士論文研討會，高雄，中山大學。
黃焜煌、卓統佑，1998，模糊邏輯在財務危機預測上之應用。朝陽學報，第三期，47~68。
劉向麗，2001，依銀行融資觀點看企業財務預警問題，國立中山大學財務管理系碩士論文。
林金賢，陳育成，劉沂佩，鄭育書，2004，具學習性之模糊專家系統在財務危機預測上之應用，管理學報，21 卷，3 期，291~309。
孫宗瀛、楊英魁，2005，模糊控制理論、實作與應用，台北：全華科技圖書股份有限公司。
沈中華、黃博怡，2006，台灣中小企業產業別信用風險模型，中小企業發展季刊，第一期。
吳雅娟，2006，以模糊理論建構台灣上市櫃電子公司財務危機預警模型與實證，國立成功大學高階管理碩士在職專班碩士論文。
詹益宗，2006，財務危機預警模型之比較，國立交通大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
英文文獻
Altman 1968. Financial Ratio, Discriminate Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy using Capital Market Data. Journal of Finance, (September):589-609.
Beaver 1966. Financial Ratio as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research(April):71-111
Deakin,E.B. 1972. A Discriminate Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure. Journal of Accounting Research
Blum, M. 1974. Failing Company Discriminate Analysis. Journal of Accounting Research(December): 1-25.
Ohlson, J.A. 1980. Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research (March): 109-131
Collins,R.A. & Green,R.D. 1982. Statistical Methods for Bankruptcy Forecasting. Journal of Economics and Business,34(April):349-354
Atiya, A.F. 2001. Bankruptcy Prediction for Credit Risk using Neural Networks: A Surveyand New Results. IEEE transactions on neural networks (December).
Lensberg, Eilifsen, Mckee 2004. Bankruptcy Theory Development and Classification via Genetic Programming. Journal of Operational Research.
Lensberg, T. , Eilifsen, A. & Mckee,T.E. 2004. Bankruptcy Theory Development and Classification via Genetic Programming. Journal of Operational Research. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
94356037
97 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094356037 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [資訊管理學系] 學位論文
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