Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36696
|
| Title: | Strategic Trade Policy and Exchange Rate Subsidies: A Study of American Auto Markets |
| Authors: | 林季陽
Lin,Chi-Yang |
| Contributors: | 張元晨
溫偉任
Chang,Yuanchen
Wen,Wei-Jen
林季陽
Lin,Chi-Yang |
| Keywords: | 外匯干預
汽車業
匯率預期
peso problem |
| Date: | 2005 |
| Issue Date: | 2009-09-18 19:18:47 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | Can intervention by the Bank of Japan on the yen/dollar rates be used as a strategic policy to promote Japanese exports to the U.S. markets？ We develop theoretical models based on strategic trade policy literature to explain possible impacts on U.S. automobiles. During the last decade, the changes of yen/dollar rates have coincided with dramatic market-share gains by Japanese automakers in the U.S. market. In the meantime, intervention by the Bank of Japan on the yen/dollar market has reached a record high. Our models assume interventions have two channels to influence U.S./Japan trade. First, we hypothesize that official currency manipulation by the Bank of Japan was implemented as a means to subsidize Japanese. The second channel resulted from the relationship between the expectation of an unavoidable foreign exchange rate appreciation and automobile purchase behavior of U.S. consumers. We assembles the famous “peso problem” in international finance. By preventing the prompt appreciation of JPY using intervention strategy, we argue that intervention by the Bank of Japan create a notion of unavoidable appreciation of JPY rate. This prompts U.S. consumers to purchase cars earlier.
We explore the effects of intervention of Bank of Japan on the changes of sale volume and market shares of U.S. and Japan automakers and the results show that the sale volume and market share of American automakers decrease while these of Japanese automakers increase. Empirical results also indicate that U.S. consumers tend to purchase more Japanese automobiles when the Yen’s appreciation is withheld temporary level they have expected. After comparisons, we conclude that interventions by the Bank of Japan affect American automakers through cost disadvantage and Japanese automakers through another channel. Results also imply that the effects of intervention on Japan/U.S. trade lie more through the channel of cost subsidy. |
| Reference: | [1] Abel, Andrew B. 2002. An Exploration of the Effects of Pessimism and Doubt on Asset Returns. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 26.7-8：1075-1092
[2] Barber, Brad M., Reid W. Click and Masako N. Darrough. 1999. The impact of shocks to exchange rates and oil prices on U.S. sales of American and Japanese automakers. Japan and World Economy 11：57-93.
[3] Brainard, S. Lael and David Martimort. 1997. Strategic trade policy with incompletely informed policymakers. Journal of International Economics 42：33-65.
[4] Bergin, Paul R. 2003. Devaluations and Consumption Smoothing. Review of International Economics 11(5)：875–884.
[5] Bernhofen, Danial M. and Peng Xu. 2000. Exchange rates and market power：evidence from the petrochemical industry. Journal of International Economics 52：283-297.
[6] Berry, Steven, James Levinsohn, and Ariel Pakes. 1999, Voluntary Export Restraints on Automobiles：Evaluating a Trade Policy. The American Economic Review 89 No.3：400-430.
[7] Corsetti, Giancarlo., Paolo Pesenti, Nouriel Roubini and Cedric Tille. 2000. Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach. Journal of International Economics 51：217-241
[8] Eaton, J. and G.M Grossman. 1986. Optimal trade and industrial policy under oligopoly. Journal of Economics 51: 383.
[9] Enomoto, Carl. E and Kenichiro Chinen. 2001. Public perceptions of U.S.-Japan trade relations in the 1990s. Multinational Business Review 9： 1257-1292.
[10] Fang, K.C., Hitomi Iizaka, Paul Lau and Chelsea Lin. 2002. The Political Economy of the Japanese Yen and the U.S.-Japan Trade Conflict. Journal of Finance 55: 2017-2070.
[11] Fratzscher, Marcel. 2004. COMMUNICATION AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY. European Central Bank working paper No.363.
[12] Feenstra, Robert C. 2004. Advanced International Trade –THEORY AND EVIDENCE. Princeton University Press.
[13] Feenstra Robert C., Joseph E. Gagnon and Michael M. Knetter. 1996. Market share and exchange rate pass-through in world automobile trade. Journal of International Economics 40：187-207.
[14] Frenkel, Michael., Christian Pierdziochb and Georg Stadtmann. 2005. The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility. International Review of Economics and Finance 14：27–39.
[15] Giovanni, Olivei P. 2002. Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States. New England Economic Review 2002: 27-47.
[16] Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou. 1995. Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry. Journal of Econometrica 63 No.4：891-951.
[17] Goldberg, Michael D. and Roman Frydman. 2001. Macroeconomic fundamentals and the DM/$ exchange rate: Temporal instability and the monetary model. International Journal of Finance & Economics 6. 4：421-435.
[18] Huang, Jui-Chi and Tantatape Brahmasrene. 2003. The effect of exchange rate expectations on market share commendation. Managerial Finance 29.1：101-127.
[19] Johnson, Bryan T. and O’Quinn, Robert P. 1995. The U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement: A Failure for Clinton, A Victory for America., Cornell University, and University of Illinois working paper.
[20] Kaminsky, Graciela. 1993. Is There a Peso Problem Evidence from the Dollar Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987. The American Economic Review 83.3：450-472.
[21] Kaminsky, Graciela. and Karen K. Lewis. 1996. Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy? Journal of Monetary Economics 37：285-312.
[22] Kim Soyoung. 2003. Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework. Journal of International Economics 60：355–386.
[23] Krishna, Kala., Kathleen Hogan, and Phillip Swagel. 1993. The Nonoptimality of Optimal Trade Policies：The U.S. Automobile Industry Revisited, 1979-1985. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 28: 273-284.
[24] Levinsohn, James. 1995. Carwars：Trying to Make Sense of U.S.-Japan Trade Fictions in the Automobile and Automobile Parts Markets Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 22: 659-670.
[25] Lincoln, E.J. 1999. Troubled Times: U.S.-Japan Trade Relations in the 1990s. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
[26] McKinnon, Ronald I. 1998. International Money: Dollars, Euros, or Yen?. Unpublished paper. Stanford University.
[27] McKinnon, Ronald. I. 1999. Strong Yen fears. The International Economy 13. 2：38-42
[28] Miah, Fazlul., M Kabir Hassan. and S M Ikhtiar Alam. 2004. Testing the Rationality of Exchange Rate Expectations：Evidence from Survey Data. American Business Review 22. 1：11-20
[29] Osterberg, William P. 2000. New results on the rationality of survey measures of exchange-rate expectations. Economic Review - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 36.1：14-21
[30] Pekkanen, Saadia M. 1999. Aggressive Legalism: The Rules of the WTO and Japan’s Emerging Trade Strategy. New England Political Science Association 5-6: 707-737.
[31] Raff, Horst., Young-Han Kim. and Womack, Kent L. 1996. Optimal export policy in the presence of informational barriers to entry and imperfect competition. Journal of International Economics 49：99-123.
[32] Schawartz, Anna J. 2000. The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market: Intervention as a Policy Tool. Journal of Financial Services Research 18.2/3：319-339.
[33] Sill, Keith. 2000. Understanding Asset Values stock price, exchange rate and Peso problem. Business Review 3：3-14.
[34] Swenson, Deborah. L. 2001. Explaining Domestic Content：Evidence from Japanese and U.S Automobile Production in the United States. Journal of Finance 56：531-563.
[35] Tapia, Matías. and Andrea Tokman. 2004. Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Public Information：The Chilean Case. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers No. 255.
[36] Tille, Cedric. 2001. The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of monetary shocks. Journal of International Economics 53：421–444.
[37] Veronesi, Pietro. 2004. The Peso Problem Hypothesis and Stock Market Returns. Journal of Economic, Dynamics and Control 28.4：707-725 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
92357029
94 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923570291 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| index.html | 0Kb | HTML2 | 273 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
