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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36663


    Title: 生育率模型與台灣各縣市生育率之實證研究
    Authors: 賴思帆
    Contributors: 余清祥
    賴思帆
    Keywords: 生育率
    有偶婦女比例
    平均生育年齡
    擴散模型
    交叉驗證
    電腦模擬
    Gamma
    Lee-Carter
    Date: 2004
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 19:09:23 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 由於台灣地區的生育率變化較大，之前的研究發現其他各國的生育率模型不見得適用，亟需建立可反映我國國情的生育率模型。本文引用台灣、日本、荷蘭、美國（亞洲、歐洲、美洲）等經濟發達國家的出生資料，配適包括Gamma、Lee-Carter、主成份分析、年齡組個別估計法、擴散模型等較為常用的模型，比較這些國家配適結果的異同。分析發現，如果要預測總生育率，台灣、日本、美國都是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型的結果最佳，荷蘭則是年齡組個別估計法；在年齡組生育率的預測方面，台灣、日本、荷蘭都是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型最好，美國則是以年齡組個別估計最好。此外再從相對穩定性或相對效率的角度來評判，一樣是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型或年齡組個別估計的總生育率預測結果最佳。最後還觀察到台灣地區和各縣市的有偶婦女比例和生育率呈正向關係，平均生育年齡和生育率呈反向關係，各縣市在有偶婦女比例、生育率、平均生育年齡的變化並不一致，各年齡組有偶婦女比例和生育率的改變也不盡相同。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計研究所
    92354026
    93
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0923540261
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Statistics] Theses

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