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    題名: Exports, Terms of Trade, and Growth
    作者: 林佑龍
    Yo-long Lin
    貢獻者: 翁永和
    林佑龍
    Yo-long Lin
    關鍵詞: Export-biased growth
    Import-biased growth
    Terms of trade
    Export promotion hypothesis
    Production-led hypothesis
    Export-reducing production hypothesis
    Production-reducing export hypothesis
    Granger causality
    日期: 2002
    上傳時間: 2009-09-18 17:35:58 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 論文摘要

    本論文由兩篇獨立的文章所構成，第一篇文章從個體角度出發，探討臺灣產業出口與成長之間的關聯性；第二篇文章則以總體的角度，分析世界各主要國家經濟成長的型態(包括出口偏向型的成長與進口偏向型的成長)對該國貿易條件的影響。

    長久以來，出口與產出之間的相互影響向來是廣受重視的議題。在國際經濟領域中，多數研究均專注於兩者間理論之建立，關於實證方面的探討並不多見，而個體角度來探討產業出口與成長之間的文獻更是稀少，以臺灣產業出口與成長之間因果關係為對象的研究則付之闕如。臺灣的經濟成就向來被歸功於出口擴張政策的成功，但出口導向的影響範圍究竟擴及多少產業的效果仍不明朗，因此第一篇文章關心的重點，在於探討對我國的產業而言出口擴張是否是個有效的政策？而究竟出口導向和產出導向哪一種政策的效果較好，也是本文所關心的目標。

    第二篇文章討論成長型態對貿易條件的影響。由於出口偏向型的成長會使本國願意以更多出口財來換取進口財，將會使本國出口財的國際價格相對下降，進而惡化本國的貿易條件，改善外國的貿易條件；反之，在進口偏向型成長的情況下，出口財的減少則會使本國貿易條件改善，外國貿易條件惡化。是以一國的經濟成長對該國貿易條件的影響，將取決於其生產可能曲線外移的方向。本文嘗試以八個工業化國家和七個開發中國家為對象，在加入成長偏向政策、物價、匯率、所得移轉、對外投資、貿易平衡、貿易開放程度等因素的考慮下，來驗證成長型態對其貿易條件的影響效果是否符合理論的規範。
    The purpose of first paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between exports and domestic production in 22 Taiwan main industries, using time series data for the period 1982:01~2002:07. Different from the previous literatures, this paper examines the relations by taking into account industrial data because we are wondering whether the causal links between exports and outputs still sustain in individual industry, and either export promotion or production-led policies are more effective for industrial production. Hence, three related topics will be discussed: to recognize the incidence of export promotion policy in Taiwan industries, to explore either export promotion or production-led policies is more effective for industrial production, and to detect whether all exportation-oriented industries would simultaneously support export promotion hypothesis. The findings of the econometric analysis employing Granger causality test do not have enough evidence to support that the proportion of exports to production is a necessary condition for generating export promotion. Nevertheless, this study suggests that production makes great influence on exports in Taiwan individual industry but the effects of exports on production is not so prevailing as we thought before. Therefore, the influence of production to exports in Taiwan industry is more prevalent than that of exports to outputs.

    The purpose of the second paper is to examine the impacts of growth types on terms of trade by making a comparison between 8 industrial countries and 7 developing countries (involving 3 NICs countries). This paper finds that the theories seems not be supported because evidence shows the occurrence of positive effects of export-biased growth to terms of trade are more prevalent than negative ones. Moreover, the empirical results of negative incidence shown by import-biased growth come into conflict with theories, and the impacts of import-biased growth on terms of trade are indefinite. In addition, most results reveals that export-biased growth and import-biased growth policies in industrial countries are invalid, and most results in NICs and developing countries are ambiguous while export-biased growth or import-biased growth policies are adopted. Furthermore, the empirical results reveal that income transferring have great or opposite influence in NICs and developing countries, and trade openness is advantageous to NICs and developing countries but is disadvantageous to developed ones.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
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