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    题名: 家戶住宅居住時間分析-存活模型之運用
    The Study for Household Duration of Residence-Apply the Survival Analysis
    作者: 黃文祺
    贡献者: 張金鶚
    黃文祺
    关键词: 遷徙行為
    居住時間
    存活分析
    Migration
    duration of residence
    survival analysis
    日期: 2007
    上传时间: 2009-09-18 16:20:54 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在過去文獻中多有討論遷徙行為者，但少有對家戶的居住時間進行分析，本研究首先檢視自有者與租賃者之居住時間，其次為瞭解家戶對實質住宅的經濟需求較大，還是對已建立的社會關係網絡需求較大，提出居住時間的時間相依性問題，即隨著居住時間的增加，家戶會因為對住宅需求改變而愈容易遷徙？還是在累積惰性下愈不易遷徙？最後則是探討家戶居住時間的影響因素，藉由不同的住宅與家戶特徵來瞭解家戶可能的居住時間，以作為住宅遷徙、流動性及其他住宅政策分析之參考。
    本研究在實證方法上採取存活分析法，並利用華人家庭動態資料庫的橫斷面跨時資料進行研究。實證結果顯示，自有者的存活函數明顯大於租賃者，且自有家戶之居住時間為租賃家戶的3.11倍。另外，家戶遷徙機率具有正時間相依性，反應出家戶隨著居住時間的增加，遷徙機率會增加，然而自有家戶模型的遷徙機率卻呈現負時間相依性。居住時間影響因素實證結果，每人坪數較大，居住時間會較短，而年齡愈大與居住人數愈多者，居住時間會較長。
    Although there are lots of studies exploring migration, few of them focus on analysis household duration of residence. Duration of residence is an important source of information for a variety of private and pubic decisions and for the understanding of various social and economic phenomena. This study makes a residence duration comparison between owners and tenants. Due to cumulative stress and inertia, moving probability will be increased or decreased. We attempt to describe the duration of residence is positive or negative time dependent. This study also provides the evidence that house and household characteristics determine the duration of residence.
    This empirical study employs the survival analysis and uses the data from Panel Study of Family Dynamics. The result indicates that the survival function of owners is larger than of tenant. Duration of owner residence is 3.11 times longer than that of tenants. Generally, household moving probability is positive while the owner’s is negative. Research finding further reveals that ping per person is negatively related to residence duration. Age and household size are positively related to residence duration.
    參考文獻: 一、中文部分
    1.李春長、張金鶚、林祖嘉(1997)，房屋交易市場上銷售期間之研究：存活模型之應用，國家科學委員會研究彙刊：人文及社會科學，七卷三期，P.420-437
    2.林祖嘉(1988)，隨機程序模型下的住屋需求與遷徙，中國經濟學年會論文集，P.269-317
    3.周美伶(2005)，先前租買經驗對自住者購屋搜尋行為之影響-存活分析之應用，十四卷一期P.21-40
    4.高孟定（1987），住宅環境選擇行為之研究，國立台灣大學土木工程研究所博士論文
    5.陳淑美、張金鶚、陳建良(2004)，家戶遷移與居住品質變化關係之研究-台北縣市的實證分析報，住宅學報，十三卷一期P.51-74
    6.陳淑美、張金鶚(2002)，家戶遷移決策與路徑選擇之研究-台北縣市的實證研究，住宅學報，十一卷一期P.1-22
    7.陳佳欣(2007)，家戶首次購置住宅與生命歷程之關聯分析，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所博士論文
    8.曾喜鵬(2004)，居住遷移與住宅選擇模式建立之研究-以住宅消費失衡與調整為觀點的解釋，國立台北大學都市計劃研究所博士論文
    9.靳燕玲、陳小紅(2007)，遷移計畫中的改善調整因素，中華民國住宅學會第十六屆論文集，P.307-320
    10.薛立敏、曾喜鵬、謝鈺偉(2007)，台灣地區近年來遷移行為變化之影響因素分析-家戶遷移決策與遷移地點選擇之聯合估計，人口學刊，第34期，P.69-109
    11.薛立敏(1999)，台灣地區居住遷徙行為與住宅市場關係之探討，中華民國住宅學會第八屆論文集，P.95-108
    二、英文部分
    1.Allison, P. D.(1995),“Survival Analysis Using the SAS System: A Practical Guide”, Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc
    2.Anily S., Jacob Hornik and Miron Israeli(1999),“Inferring the Distribution of Household’s Duration of Residence From Data on Current Residence Time”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 17,373-381
    3.Brown, D. L. E. G., Moore(1970),“The Intra Urban Migration Process: A Perspective ”, Economic Geography 55,338-352
    4.Boehm, T. P., K. R., Ihlanfeld (1986) “Residential Mobility and Neighborhood Quality”, Journal of Regional Science, 26(2): 411-424
    5.Bassett, K., J. R., Short (1980) Housing and Residential Structure: Alternative Approaches, London, Boston and Henley: Routledge and Kegan Paul
    6.Clark W. A. V., J. O., Huff(1977),“Some Empirical Test of a Joint Model of Residential Mobility and Housing Choice”, Environment and Planning 17,915-930
    7.Cox, D. R. and D. Oakes(1984),“Analysis of Survival Data.”, London, New York: Croom Helm
    8.Deng Y., Stuart A. Gabriel and Frank E. Nothaft(2003) “Duration of Residence in the Rental Housing Market”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 26:2/3,267-285
    9.Goodman, A. C. (2003) “Following a panel of stayers: Length of stay, tenure choice, and housing demand ”, Journal of Housing Economics 12,106-133
    10.Gronberg T. J. and W. Robert Reed(1992),“Estimation of Duration Models Using the Annual Housing Survey”, Journal of Urban Economics 31,311-324
    11.Haurin D. R., H. Leroy Gill(2002),“The Impact of Transaction Costs and the Expected Length of Stay on Homeownership”, Journal of Urban Economics 51,563-584
    12.Henderson and Y. Ioannides(1992),“Dynamic Aspects of Consumer Decisions in Housing Markets”, Journal of Urban Economics 26,212-230
    13.Ioannides, Y. M. (1986),“Residential Mobility and Housing Tenure Choice”, Urban Economics 31,311-324
    14.Jarvis, H.(1999),“Housing Mobility as a Function of Household Structure”, Housing Studies 14(4),491-505
    15.McGinnis, R.(1968),“A Stochastic Model of Social Mobility”, American Sociological Review 33,712-722
    16.McLeod, P.B., and J.R.Ellis.(1983),“Alternative Approaches to the Family Life Cycle in the Analysis of Housing Consumption”, Journal of Marriage and the Family 32,326-350
    17.Reinback. E. R. and Oliva T. A. (1981),“General Living Systems Theory and Marketing: A Framework for Analysis”, Journal of Marketing 45,30-37
    18.Speare, A. Jr. (1974) “Residential Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable in Residential Mobility”, Demography, 11:173-188
    19.Shelton, J. P. (1968),“The Cost of Renting Versus Owning a Home”, Land Economics 44,59-72
    20.Wolpert, J. (1965),“Behavioral Aspects of the Decision to Migrate”, Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association 15,159-169
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政研究所
    95257020
    96
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095257020
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[地政學系] 學位論文

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