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    Title: 台灣地區華格納法則之再驗證
    Authors: 王俊欽
    Contributors: 吳中書
    王俊欽
    Keywords: 華格納法則
    共整合
    政府支出
    誤差修正模型
    Date: 2004
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 16:04:32 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 政府支出與國民所得的關係一直是學者們所關切的問題,因為政府支出是否能促進經濟成長,亦或隨著經濟成長政府規模不斷的擴大,其中的關係一直沒有一定的定論。1930年代的經濟大蕭條,「凱因斯革命」企圖以增加政府支出來挽救景氣,認為透過財政政策的介入能影響有效需求,進而對抗景氣循環維持經濟的穩定;而在研究政府支出成長時,1877年德國財政學者Adolph Wagner所提出政府活動遞增法則(Law of Increasing State Activity )是最常被用來解釋公共部門的成長,所謂的華格納法則是指 「政府部門的活動其重要性會隨著經濟發展或是所得的增加而提高其重要性」。
    故本文的主要目的除了參考Islam(2001)的模型,研究政府支出與國民所得的因果關係外,本文將政府總支出分成政府消費支出、投資支出、移轉性支出,檢定不同性質的政府支出指標是否符合華格納法則。近年來政府規模逐年下降,因此不同時期經濟發展階段對於華格納法則可能有著不同的詮釋,故本文不同於以往的文章皆以某一段期間來研究華格納法則,而將時間序列的資料區分為民國五十六年第一季至八十四年第四季的資料,以及民國八十五年第一季至民國九十二年第四季的資料來分別驗證台灣地區華格納法則是否仍成立,所用的方法以Johansen的最大概似法,檢定政府支出與國民所得的長期均衡關係並驗證政府支出相對規模的所得彈性是否大於零;若變數間存在共整合關係,則以誤差修正模型來檢定政府支出與國民所得因果關係。
    而在研究政府支出成長時,公共支出所購買的財貨勞務的內容可能不同於國民所得,政府支出的物價水準與一般消費的物價水準可能有所不同,因此以相同的物價水準來平減名目政府支出以及國民所得,可能無法得知明確的實質的政府相對規模,故本文的另一個主要目的在於以實質政府相對規模與名目政府相對規模兩種不同形式,研究實質政府相對規模的成長趨勢是否與名目的政府相對規模的成長趨勢是否有所不同。
    研究結果發現,在第一階段樣本期間,不論以名目政府相對規模或實質政府相對規模作為政府規模指標下,華格納法則在台灣地區中皆不成立;在第二階段樣本期間,除了實質政府移轉性支出外,其餘的名目或實質政府相對規模作為政府規模指標下,華格納法則在台灣地區中是不成立的。故華格納法則在台灣地區是否成立,與不同的政府支出類型、名目或實質變數和本文所區分的時期有關。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟研究所
    91258015
    93
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912580151
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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