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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35778


    Title: 利率指標與不確定政策宣示
    Interest Rate Targeting and Announced Policy with Uncertainty
    Authors: 林鴻文
    Lin,Hung Wen
    Contributors: 賴景昌
    Lai,Ching-Chong
    林鴻文
    Lin,Hung Wen
    Keywords: 利率指標
    不確定政策
    宣示效果
    Date: 2006
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 16:00:07 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文擬以Fleming(1962)模型作為本文的理論架構，並延續張文雅、溫學華與賴景昌(1994)對於不確定政策變動的研究，釋放完全預知的強烈假定，討論「利率調幅不確定」的貨幣政策，並加入「名目利率指標」設定。本文明確地指出在央行實施不確定性貨幣政策的期間，民眾修正預期利率的結果，將導致匯率和產出之預期動態調整路徑，與經濟體系真實動態路徑不會有完全重合的可能性。本文此一結論，與上述文獻認為預期與實際調整路徑完全重疊之論述，已明顯迥然不同。

    在本文的推導與証明過程中，我們發現在理性預期下，央行的不確定性貨幣政策可能使民眾的預期匯率及預期產出，產生高估或低估的現象；此外，本文亦提出，當新的訊息進入情報集合時，民眾立即充分運用訊息，且修正先前的利率預期值，此時預期調整路徑可有「非水平」躍動方式。
    Reference: １．張文雅、溫學華、賴景昌，1994。「宣示效果與不確定的政策變動」。　　　　　83年度行政院國科會經濟學門專題研究成果發表會會議論文，台北：　　　　國科會。
    ２．賴景昌(1994)，<<國際金融理論：進階篇>>。台北：茂昌。
    ３．賴景昌(2006)，<<經體經濟學>>。台北：雙葉。
    １．Balduzzi, P., Bertola, G. , Foresi, S. and Klapper, L., 　　　　1998. ‘‘Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics 　　　　　of Short-Term Rates,’’ Journal of Money, Credit 　　　　　　and Banking 30: 26-50.
    ２．Bonser-Neal, C., Roley, V. V. and Sellon, G. H., 　　　　　　　　2000. ‘‘The Effect of Monetary Policy Actions on 　　　　　Exchange Rates under Interest-Rate Targeting,’’ 　　　　　　Journal of International Money and Finance 19: 601-　　　　　631.
    ３．Boyce, W. E., 2001. Elementary Differential Equations 　　　　　and Boundary Value Problems, 3rd Edition. New York: 　　　　Addison Wiley.
    ４．Daniel, B. C., 1989. ‘‘One-Sided 　Uncertainty about 　　　　　Future Fiscal Policy,’’ Journal of Money, Credit 　　　　　and Banking 21: 176-189.
    ５．Diamond, D. and Dybvig, P., 1983. “Bank Runs, Deposit 　　　　　Insurance, and Liquidity.” Journal of Political 　　　　　　Economy 91: 401-419.
    ６．Dornbusch, R., 1976. ‘‘Expectations and Exchange Rate 　　　　Dynamics,’’ Journal of Political Economy 84: 1161-　　　　1176.
    ７．Garfinkel, M. R. and Oh, S., 1993. “Strategic 　　　　　　　　　Discipline in Monetary Policy with Private 　　　　　　　　　Information：Optimal Targeting Horizons,” American 　　　　Economic Review 83: 99-117.

    ８．Gray, M. and Turnovsky, S. J. (1979), “The Staility of 　　　　Exchange Rate Dynamics under Perfect Myopic 　　　　　　　　　Foresight,” International Economic Review 20, pp. 　　　　　643-660.
    ９．Huang, K. X. D. and Liu, Z., 2005. “Inflation 　　　　　　　　　targeting: What inflation rate to target ? ” 　　　　　　　　Journal of Monetary Economics 52: 1435-1462.
    10．Kobayashi, T., 2004. ‘‘Monetary Policy Uncertainty 　　　　　　and Interest Rate Targeting,’’ Journal of 　　　　　　　　Macroeconomics 26: 725-735.
    11.Leitemo, K., 2006. “Targeting Inflation by Forecast 　　　　　　Feedback Fules in Small Open Economies, ” Journal 　　　　　of Economic Dynamics & Control 30: 393-413.
    12.Mishkin, F. S., 2004 . The Economics of Money, Banking, 　　　　and Financial Markets, 6th Edition. New York: 　　　　　　　Addison Wesley.
    13.Muth, J. F. (1961), “Rational Expectations and the 　　　　　　　Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica 29: 315-　　　　　335.
    14.Poole, W., 1970. ‘‘Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy 　　　　　Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model,’’ 　　　　Quarterly Journal of Economics 84: 197-216.
    15.Wilson, C. A. (1979), “Anticipated Shocks and Exchange 　　　　Rate Dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy 87, 　　　　　pp. 639-647.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟研究所
    94258037
    95
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094258037
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Economics] Theses

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